- Jason Davis
FIFA sources told the Associated Press today that the six member confederations will receive the same number of World Cup spots for 2014 as they did in 2010. That means no guaranteed fourth spot for CONCACAF, a possibility that has been making the rounds in recent days.
Showing posts with label 2014. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 2014. Show all posts
Plenty has been written on this site and others about whether Bob should have been brought back. And there will be plenty of places to spew bile over this decision - one may even pop up on this site - but now that the job is officially Bob's it's probably worth a look at how the next four years lay out and what Bradley might do with them. The focus is on the 10 months between now and the end of the Gold Cup, but I've outlined the entire likely schedule below.
2010
October 9 - Poland friendly
October 12 - Colombia friendly
November 17 - FIFA friendly date
With the playoff push on for MLS teams, it seems unlikely many MLSers will be called in for the October games. But with some actual time in camp, I would expect a few uncapped European based players to get called in. I would expect Mikkel Diskerud, Eric Lichaj, and Jermaine Jones to all get callups for the October matches.
The November friendly date is currently open. Because of the short time off, if it were to be filled, it would likely be played in Europe with a mix of players from eliminated MLS teams and Europe based players. Most of the major European countries have already announced friendlies for that date, but one country that does not that would provide a good matchup is Belgium.
The rest of this year gives Bradley a chance to scout and test European talent that has not yet been evaluated.
2011
January camp
Friendly against some Scandinavian country
February 9 - FIFA friendly date
March 26-30 - FIFA international dates
June 5-25 - Gold Cup
July - open for friendlies
August 17 - friendly date
September 3-7 - international dates
October 8-12 - international dates
November 12-16 - international dates
While the end of 2010 should be an excellent chance to evaluate the European talent, the beginning of 2011 should give that chance the domestic players. There's no reason to believe that Bob will stop holding the January camp culminating in a friendly against a country whose professional league takes an extended winter break.
If a 2010 November friendly does not happen in Europe, the February friendly date would likely be utilized that way.
The March dates should be a dress rehearsal for the team that Bob will take to the Gold Cup. I anticipate that team consisting mainly of players who went to South Africa and using a similar set of tactics. Evaluations of players will likely lean toward problem areas; center back, defensive midfield, and striker.
Post Gold Cup should be the biggest time of experimentation for Bob during the next cycle. If the proposed qualifying plan goes into effect (there's no reason to believe it will not be approved because it nearly replicates the current AFC model), the US should have about 15 consecutive matches that are friendlies or where the US is a heavy favorite between July 2011 and October 2012. It's at this point that guys like Bocanegra and Cherundolo will likely be worked out of the rotation and younger players given more than cameo appearances in preparation for World Cup qualifying.
2012
January camp
January Scandinavian friendly
February 29 - friendly date
June - 4 WC Qualifiers
July - open for friendlies
September 8-12 - 2 WC Qualifiers
October 13-17 - 2 WC Qualifiers
November 14 - WC Qualifier
2012 may provide the US a chance to do a friendly tour against teams tuning up for Euro 2012. I would expect scheduling a wide array of opponents in terms of style as a good test for the lineup and tactic experimentation that should be occurring during this time.
2013
January camp
January - Scandinavian friendly
February 6 - WC Qualifier
March 23-27 - 2 WC Qualifiers
June 8-12 - 2 WC Qualifiers
June - Confederations Cup
July - Gold Cup
August 21 - Friendly Date
September 7-11 - 2 WC Qualifiers
October 12-16 - 2 WC Qualifiers
November 16-20 - International dates
If the US again qualifies for the Confederations Cup, 2013 looks to be a very busy year, and should mark the point of solidifying contributors and tactics.
2014
January camp
January - Scandinavian friendly
March 5 - Friendly date
May/June - Pre-WC camp and friendlies
June/July - World Cup
As with any World Cup year, everything is about final preparations.
Bradley follows a pretty strict pattern for introducing new players into the fold, a process that generally takes a full year. With only a handful of matches between now and the Gold Cup, it's unlikely large scale changes will occur. But the call ups, the late subs, and surprise starts should give us an idea of who might slide into the Gold Cup squad ahead of those featured in South Africa.
The Central Midfielders:
So long, and thanks for the memories:
Actually, nobody. All of the current crop are likely to be in serious contention in 2014. The US is blessed with a young midfield corps right now.
See You Next Time:
As mentioned above, all of the US central mids from 2010 will still be fighting for places in four years' time. Michael Bradley (26 in 2014), Maurice Edu (28), Benny Feilhaber (29), Ricardo Clark (31), and Jose Francisco Torres (26) are the current incumbents, and it's reasonable to assume most of them will be making the trip to Brazil.
Who Else Has A Chance?
The elephant in the room is Jermaine Jones. The German-born midfielder switched allegiances to the US last year, but was kept out of South Africa by injury. He'll be 32 in 2014, and with his experience and talent, could be a real asset to the US squad. Other options in the vast central mid pool include Anderlecht playmaker Sacha Kljestan (28), The Crew's Eddie Gaven (27), FC Dallas's Dax McCarty (27), Stabaek's Mikkel "Mix" Diskerud (23) and Erik Benjaminsen (21), Bordeaux's Lester Dewee (21), Real Salt Lake's Luis Gil (20), West Ham's Sebastian Lletget (21), or even the prodigal child of American soccer himself, Freddy Adu (25)
With the end of the World Cup cycle for the US, the prospect of a managerial change looms large. A lot of people seem to be asking the questions “who is the best tactical manager for the US talent pool” or “who is the manager who will play the style I want the US to play”.
For me, it’s all about timing. The end of the Bradley era may be upon us. I’m throwing my support behind Klinsmann for 2014. But that doesn’t mean what you probably think it means...
There are a ton of things that need to be done in the system for the US to truly be competitive on the world stage. Some of these things will take 12 or more years before they are truly effective, some can be done in two. Let’s run down a quick list of things that I view as needing to happen and my best guess as to the approximate time it will take changes to effect the national team:
1) Build a functional youth system (12 years)
2) Increase the quality of MLS to that of second tier European leagues (12 years)
3) Gut and rebuild USSF (8 years)
4) Change the tactics of the national team (2 years)
In hiring Claudio Reyna to be Youth Technical Director, USSF has taken the first step toward achieving goal number one. The recent CBA moves MLS closer to achieving goal number two. Hiring Klinsmann, if he is given the freedom to do as he pleases, begins the process of blowing up the USSF and rebuilding it, and he would change the tactics of the team, moving the US forward on all accounts.
And I’m all for that…
Just not next cycle.
It is well established that USSF is interested in Klinsmann and Klinsmann is interested in the job. We also know that Klinsmann retooled die Mannschaft while he was in charge in Germany. Rumor is that wanted to do the same at Bayern but didn’t have the freedom and that he isn’t the current USMNT boss this cycle because of disagreement over control. In Germany, he wanted to Americanize the system, adding fitness coaches and sports psychologists. In all likelihood, behind the scenes here he would Germanize the American system. But what does that mean?
German success, as evident in this World Cup, has come from their youth development system. Club academies form the basis, with weekly two-hour “tutoring” sessions for about 14,000 youth players by German Football Federation appointed coaches. The players graduate up the line to receive playing time at club “II” teams situated in the German third and fourth flights before moving on to the top flight which is competitive enough to provide world class competition but not so competitive as to deprive younger developing players an opportunity in favor of the newest hot transfer that’s been brought in. For example, Mesut Oezil had 18 Bundesliga appearances for Schalke 04 in the 06-07 season when he was 18 years old and 59 league appearance for Werder Bremen in the last two years.
But, as a national team coach, Klinsmann’s highest priority cannot be establishing a functional youth system. However, I have faith in Klinsmann to do two things as national team coach, 1) fighting USSF to make changes that will help now and later and 2) overseeing a tactically cunning team. The US will be a better position to do both of those things in four years time.
Improving the youth system is an enormous problem and should be the highest priority of USSF. However, it will not show results until the 2022 World Cup at the earliest. There has been some movement on this front with the hiring of Reyna and the diversity of the players recently called into U-20 camp by Rongen. These changes provide a necessary first step, but give USSF cover; excuses to resist the structural changes that Klinsmann would lobby for. Changes led by Reyna and time to determine what is and what is not working in the development academy network would give Klinsmann a stronger foundation to lobby for the next level of changes that will be necessary, those at the USSF level. Because of this, I think Klinsmann will be more effective in making these changes beginning in 2014.
The tactics that can be implemented with a team are determined by the talent on hand. The majority of USMNT players have received some, if not all, of their training in MLS, a league that represents the average American player; long on physical skill and potential, short on technical skill. Even the strength of Donovan’s game is rooted in speed and stamina. Bob Bradley’s tactics squeezed out just about everything possible out of a team whose physicality so severely outweighed its technical ability.
I’d be shocked to find a fan who doesn’t want to the USMNT to play a more technical brand of soccer, whether it’s the tight possession game of Spain or the precise counterattack of Germany. But, while the level of technical skill in MLS has grown and will continue to grow with the league, it currently cannot cultivate a large quantity of technically adept players in each position for reasons that have been well documented, including the talent pool, referee style, and salary caps. Because of these limitations, MLS will not be able to cultivate these types of players in large numbers in the next four years.
That means to raise the technical proficiency of the US national team game, predominately US players in foreign leagues will be the ones that will be counted on. With around 30 players in foreign top flights of various quality, the US lacks options. Like the last four years, the next for years should continue to increase these options, yeilding maybe 50 such players by 2014. Most of whom will still have spent a decent chunk of time in MLS. In all likelihood, the distribution of these players will mean that there will be positions without a player whose technical ability is adequate to run a technically demanding system. Because of this, a physical-technical hybrid strategy will likely be the US’ best strategy in 2014. Something that I’m not sure if Klinsmann is well-equipped to coach.
The US is just now at the point where it is producing more than a small handful of players talented enough to play in the top ten leagues in Europe. But a lack of pipeline from MLS to Europe mean that for at least the next cycle, the USMNT coach will have to do more player development than possibly any other national team coach is asked to do. An open pipeline is critical for the US in developing the depth of talent that is necessary to become a contender. And an open pipeline will take time. Bradley did about as much as he could in opening this pipeline.
Trending out another four year sees more players in Europe and gives Klinsmann a talent pool that is workable instead of developable. To me moving top MLS players to Europe and players in small European leagues into better situations should be the goal of this next cycle. I trust Bob Bradley or a successful MLS coach like Dominic Kinnear with that goal much more than I trust Klinsmann.
Klinsmann has a lot to offer the USMNT, and I would be disappointed if he is never the coach. But with his ties to America, and his age (45), it seems unlikely to me that this is the last opportunity. With a three cycle coach almost unheard of, hiring Klinsmann now means that he will likely be gone when the US begins to approach being competitive on the world stage.
So, Klinsmann for 2014? Absolutely. But in my eyes, that’s a start date.
With the World Cup over, as far as the United States Men’s National Team is concerned, I’m going to be be taking a multi-part look at the players currently making up our player pool, and the players who will be making their case to be included on the 2014 roster. I’ll be looking at who’s played in their last World Cup, who’s got another tournament (or more) in them, and who will be fighting to make their first World Cup roster.
The Wingers:
So long, and thanks for the memories:
He's not that old, and will only be 32 at the time of the next World Cup, but I think this is the end of the line for longtime USMNT stalwart DaMarcus Beasley, a fixture on American rosters throughout the last decade. He's on 93 caps at the moment, and I think he can get to 100, but he's no longer the explosive winger who was such a mouthwatering prospect in 2002. He's not the dynamic game-changer that he was at his best, either.
See you next time:
Plenty of experience and depth for the US on the wings. The two most talented players in the squad, tournament hero Landon Donovan (32) and Clint Dempsey (31) should be in their prime. Stuart Holden (28) is probably a lock already.
Who else has a chance?
The dark horse option to make this most recent World Cup squad was Alejandro Bedoya (27) who would be a smart bet for 2014. FC Dallas's Brek Shea (24) is a young player with a bright future, if terrible hair. Sal Zizzo (27), is also a potential option, as is wunderkind Mikkel Diskerud (23), who can play on the left or in the center of midfield, or Houston's Danny Cruz (24).
With the World Cup over, as far as the United States Men’s National Team is concerned, I’m going to be be taking a multi-part look at the players currently making up our player pool, and the players who will be making their case to be included on the 2014 roster. I’ll be looking at who’s played in their last World Cup, who’s got another tournament (or more) in them, and who will be fighting to make their first World Cup roster.
The Central Defenders:
So long, and thanks for the memories:
This is the oldest position, on average, for the Yanks. Of the four central defenders who went to South Africa, two, Carlos Bocanegra and Jay DeMerit, are past their thirtieth birthday. I'd be very surprised to see DeMerit still in contention at the next tournament at the age of 34, but I wouldn't completely rule out Carlos Bocanegra (35) being taken as a last choice reserve if the other players in the position are relatively inexperienced. Clarence Goodson (32) may have lost his narrow toehold on the fourth spot by the time Brazil rolls around.
See you next time:
Oguchi Onyewu (32) will, injury free, be the experienced head on the backline come the 2014 World Cup. His physicality and aerial ability may require a quicker partner, but they're attributes that are too important to be ignored, even if Gooch, who was never the fastest of players, has lost a step or two by then. Bocanegra (35) could be brought along as a wizened head in the locker room. Clarence Goodson (32) will have stiff competition for his spot on the bench, but he's a favorite of Bob Bradley's.
Who else has a chance?
Narrowly missing out on making this roster was Crew standout Chad Marshall (29) who may be the player most ready to step up in this position. Los Angeles's Omar Gonzalez (25), the reigning MLS rookie of the year, has been earning rave reviews for his pivotal role in the best team in the league right now. Other players with a chance are New York's rookie Tim Ream (26) and the San Jose pair of Brandon McDonald (28) and the highly-touted Ike Opara (25). A dark horse could be the experienced Zak Whitbread (30) of English Championship club Norwich City.
With the World Cup over, as far as the United States Men’s National Team is concerned, I’m going to be be taking a multi-part look at the players currently making up our player pool, and the players who will be making their case to be included on the 2014 roster. I’ll be looking at who’s played in their last World Cup, who’s got another tournament (or more) in them, and who will be fighting to make their first World Cup roster.
The Left Backs:
So long, and thanks for the memories:
Left back is probably the shallowest position for the Yanks right now. During the World Cup, captain Carlos Bocanegra, usually a central defender, saw time in the position. By the time the team leaves for Brazil however, Boca will be 35, and if he goes, it will likely be as a last choice central defender to provide cover and experience.
See you next time:
Loathe him or just barely tolerate him, Jonathan Bornstein (29) is the obvious favorite for the slot going forward. A divisive figure amongst US soccer fans, Bornstein started the US's final two games in South Africa, against Algeria and Ghana, and managed not to make a complete embarrassment of himself.
Who else has a chance?
The obvious alternative right now is FC Dallas's Heath Pearce (29). Were it not for a recent drop in form, Pearce might have ousted Bornstein from the World Cup squad. The other senior option on the radar right now is former Mexican Edgar Castillo (27). Youth players looking to make a name for themselves are Akron's Kofi Sarkodie (23) and U-17 World Cup standout Tyler Polak (22). MLS left backs like Michael Harrington (28) or Jordan Harvey (30) could also force their way into contention.
With the World Cup over, as far as the United States Men’s National Team is concerned, I’m going to be be taking a multi-part look at the players currently making up our player pool, and the players who will be making their case to be included on the 2014 roster. I’ll be looking at who’s played in their last World Cup, who’s got another tournament (or more) in them, and who will be fighting to make their first World Cup roster.
The Right Backs:
So long, and thanks for the memories:
He's been a stalwart of the national team for over a decade, and was one of the most in-form American players of the 2010 World Cup, but by 2014, Steve Cherundolo will be 35, and very unlikely to be first choice for the national team.
See you next time:
The heir apparent to Cherundolo is West Ham fullback Jonathan Spector (28 in 2014) who was the understudy for the position in South Africa. In all likelihood, Spector will succeed Cherundolo as first choice for the Yanks. A lack of depth could possibly see the unlikely return of a veteran Cherundolo as Spector's backup for his fourth World Cup.
Who else has a chance?
After Spector and Cherundolo, there's a drop-off in quality and experience in the right back position. Frank Simek (29) is the most experienced of the options in the pool right now with 5 caps, but he is often injured and recently parted with Sheffield Wednesday after 5 seasons. Colorado's Marvell Wynne (28) is another player with limited national team time. Uncapped options include FC Roskilde's Jamil Fearrington, New England's Kevin Alston (26) IK Start's Hunter Freeman (29), and Aston Villa's Eric Lichaj (25).
With the World Cup over, as far as the United States Men’s National Team is concerned, I’m going to be be taking a multi-part look at the players currently making up our player pool, and the players who will be making their case to be included on the 2014 roster. I’ll be looking at who’s played in their last World Cup, who’s got another tournament (or more) in them, and who will be fighting to make their first World Cup roster.
The Goalkeepers:
So long, and thanks for the memories:
Marcus Hahnemann is 38 right now, which means he'll be 42 by the time that red, white, and blue plane leaves for Rio, and last time I checked, Roger Milla is the only person allowed to play in the World Cup at 42. Truth be told, Hahnemann is unlucky that he never became the USA number 1. Over the better part of the last decade, he has had a stellar career in the English Premiership and Championship divisions, but always found himself behind American goalkeeping greats like Kasey Keller and Tim Howard.
See you next time:
Barring injury or catastrophic career spiral, both Tim Howard and Brad Guzan will be back in 2014. Timmy will be in his mid thirties, the peak of a goalkeeper's career, and should still be the starter, although if Guzan, who will be just 29 in 2014, can earn himself a starting spot at Aston Villa, he could certainly stake his own claim for the number 1 shirt.
Who else has a shot?
As usual, the US has a strong contingent of keepers vying for the third spot in 2014. The inside track probably belongs to US international Troy Perkins, who will be 32 when the next World Cup rolls around. He will be challenged by teammate Bill Hamid (23 in 2014), Under-23 international and Celtic FC backup Dominic Cervi (27), U-23 international and Philadelphia Union starter Chris Seitz (27), occasional US international and Real Salt Lake starter Nick Rimando (35), and Kaiserslautern backup Luis Robles (30).
Thanks to Kevin McCauley for his help preparing this piece.