- Keith Hickey
The last time the CONCACAF Gold Cup was here, it came as an addendum, an afterthought to the FIFA Confederations Cup. Watching the B team take on Haiti and Panama was hardly an exciting prospect compared to playing Italy, Spain, Brazil, or Egypt. Getting our proverbial backsides handed to us by Mexico on our own turf didn't help our estimation of the competition, either.
Showing posts with label CONCACAF. Show all posts
Showing posts with label CONCACAF. Show all posts
- Keith Hickey
There are times when this whole blogging kick seems like a lot of trouble for not a lot of reward, but then something comes along that makes the work seem so worth it. Match Fit USA was recently given the esteemed honor of sitting down and interviewing U.S. Soccer Federation President Sunil Gulati.
There are times when this whole blogging kick seems like a lot of trouble for not a lot of reward, but then something comes along that makes the work seem so worth it. Match Fit USA was recently given the esteemed honor of sitting down and interviewing U.S. Soccer Federation President Sunil Gulati.
- Jason Davis
Per the wire services, CONCACAF submitted their planned 2014 qualifying structure to FIFA this week. The plan includes the final round hexagonal - the format used since 1998 - in place of the two group format proposed last year. FIFA's decision to leave CONCACAF's World Cup spot allocation unchanged at 3.5 places forced the confederation's hand. Without an increase in spots to four, guaranteeing that the top two finishers in each group would qualify for Brazil 2014, the new structure was unwieldy.
Per the wire services, CONCACAF submitted their planned 2014 qualifying structure to FIFA this week. The plan includes the final round hexagonal - the format used since 1998 - in place of the two group format proposed last year. FIFA's decision to leave CONCACAF's World Cup spot allocation unchanged at 3.5 places forced the confederation's hand. Without an increase in spots to four, guaranteeing that the top two finishers in each group would qualify for Brazil 2014, the new structure was unwieldy.
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| What's with all the sharp angles? |
CONCACAF held the draw for this summer's Gold Cup today. The United States was drawn into a group with Canada, Panamá, Guadeloupe, and will visit Detroit, Tampa, and Kansas City during the opening round.
Full schedule below.
- Jason Davis
File this under "not a coincidence." Maybe the Hex isn't dead after all.
After being rebuffed in their bid for a fourth spot in the World Cup, CONCACAF has reversed course on changes to the qualifying process they just presented to FIFA in November.
File this under "not a coincidence." Maybe the Hex isn't dead after all.
After being rebuffed in their bid for a fourth spot in the World Cup, CONCACAF has reversed course on changes to the qualifying process they just presented to FIFA in November.
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Something I failed to note properly this morning when passing along the news that FIFA will not be granting CONCACAF an additional World Cup spot for Brazil 2014 is the impact of a change in playoff format, and how it potentially benefits the region. While Jack wasn't able to convince his homies in Zurich that North America and the Caribbean deserved another guaranteed spot in the tourney, the day isn't without some kind of small victory for the confederation.
FIFA sources told the Associated Press today that the six member confederations will receive the same number of World Cup spots for 2014 as they did in 2010. That means no guaranteed fourth spot for CONCACAF, a possibility that has been making the rounds in recent days.
Around the web, though not on this site, there has been a lot of consternation over the proposed change to CONCACAF qualifying. Most of this has centered around the probable loss of the home-and-home between the US and Mexico, though some has extended well beyond that. The changes have ramifications for nearly every soccer federation in CONCACAF. Viewing the effects of these changes in their entirety paints a different picture than the quick-draw initial judgments likely created. Different countries will be affected in different ways. Countries are group by similar effect from the bottom of the CONCACAF world to the top.
Tier 11
Teams (3): Monserrat, Anguilla, US Virgin Islands
Average FIFA Rank: 200
Matches played under old system: 2
Matches played under new system: 2
Likely FIFA ranking* under new system: 200
Tier 10
Teams (3): Aruba, British Virgin Islands, St. Lucia
Average FIFA Rank: 190
Matches under old system: 2
Matches under new system: 8
Likely FIFA ranking under new system: 170
Tier 9
Teams (5): Dominican Republic, Turks and Caicos Islands, Belize, Dominica, Bahamas
Average FIFA Rank: 180
Matches under old system: 2
Matches under new system: 6
Likely FIFA ranking under new system: 170
Tier 8
Teams (8): Cayman Islands, Puerto Rico, Netherlands Antilles, Nicaragua, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, Bermuda, St. Kitts and Nevis, Grenada
Average FIFA Rank: 160
Matches under old system: 4
Matches under new system: 6
Likely FIFA ranking under new system: 150
Tier 7
Teams (4): Haiti, Antigua and Barbuda, Barbados, Suriname
Average FIFA Rank: 130
Matches under old system: 4
Matches under new system: 12
Likely FIFA ranking under new system: 120
Tier 6
Teams (3): Guyana, Guatemala, Cuba
Average FIFA Rank: 120
Matches under old system: 8
Matches under new system: 12
Likely FIFA ranking under new system: 110
Tier 5
Teams (1): Canada
Average FIFA Rank: 100
Matches under old system: 8
Matches under new system: 12
Likely FIFA ranking under new system: 85
Tier 4
Teams (2): Panama, Jamaica
Average FIFA Rank: 85
Matches under old system: 8
Matches under new system: 18
Likely FIFA ranking under new system: 75
Tier 3
Teams (2): El Salvador, Trinidad and Tobago
Average FIFA Rank: 80
Matches under old system: 18
Matches under new system: 18
Likely FIFA ranking under new system: 75
Tier 2
Teams (2): Costa Rica, Honduras
Average FIFA Rank: 50
Matches under old system: 18
Matches under new system: 18
Likely FIFA ranking under new system: 50
Tier 1
Teams (2): USA, Mexico
Average FIFA Rank: 20
Matches under old system: 18
Matches under new system: 18
Likely FIFA ranking under new system: 20
The new system funnels its matches and ranking advantages to the middle tiers of teams. Under the new system, tiers three through ten should see an average increase of about 10 spots in the FIFA rankings due to these changes. Those changes are enough to offset the loss of points that the top tiers lose by not playing each other as often.
Canada should get the largest bump with the new system. Because Canada does not play in a qualifier for the Gold Cup, it misses out on points collected by the Central American countries in the Central American Nations Cup and the Caribbean nations in the Caribbean Championship. Beating Aruba in WC qualifying is about equal in points as beating Iceland in a friendly. In fact, it’s worth more points than drawing Spain in a friendly would be. Because Canada’s only realistic chances at the higher multipliers matches come in the Gold Cup and World Cup qualifying, maximizing the number of these games is critical to raising their ranking.
The new system also gives a bit more equality to those nations that will be most important to the growth of CONCACAF. There is a core group of ten countries that have shown some ability to sustain at least decent quality soccer programs; USA, Mexico, Costa Rica, Honduras, El Salvador, T&T, Guatemala, Panama, Jamaica, and Canada. The countries include every country to make the hex round of qualifying, every Gold Cup winner, every confederation Gold Cup runner up, every UNCAF (predecessor to the Central American Cup) winner, and 9 of the last 10 Caribbean Cup winners. By nature of the hex format, four of these countries played less than half the games of the other six. In the new format, likely 8 of these ten teams will play the full 18 matches and the 2 who do not make it will play 4 more matches than they would have under the old system. For these countries, player exposure, gate receipts, and meaningful matches are critical for their development into strong regional competitors.
Another area of group is with tiers seven and eight. Tier seven sees an extreme jump in matches from 4 to 12. Tier eight are teams on the FIFA line of irrelevancy. Under the FIFA ranking formula, a team ranked lower than 150 is given a ranking of 150 for purposes of calculating points. Moving up teams near the 150 line has a positive effect for the entire system. Hopefully, this reduces the number of teams under the 150 mark from around one-half of the confederation to around one-third.
The bulk of the advantages in the new system are targeted at tiers 4 through 8. While there is a short term disadvantage to the preparation of US and Mexico for a World Cup, if the new system can stabilize and grow the middle tiers of CONCACAF the long term advantages outweigh the short term losses. In ten years, a final group of USA, Costa Rica, Jamaica, and Canada has the potential to be a challenging group. If the price of that is the diminishment of the Mexico rivalry, it may be a price worth paying.
* A note on methodology: The “likely FIFA rankings” were calculated by determining the countries current average match score, multiplying that by the number of matches played, subtracting the points from the old system, adding the predicted points from the new system, and dividing by the new number of matches played. The “likely FIFA ranking” is not predictive, but an estimation of what a country’s current FIFA rank would be if the qualification from last cycle had been done in the new format.
The structure as parsed by USSoccerPlayers.com is this:
The six lowest ranked nations play off against each other, leaving three standing and reducing the total field to thirty-two teams.
From here, groups kick in, with the thirty-two teams drawn into eight groups of four. The two top teams from each group advance. Those sixteen teams are drawn into four groups of four, again with the top two teams in each group advancing. The final eight teams play in two groups of four, with the winner of each group automatically qualifying. If CONCACAF receives a fourth World Cup spot, then the second place finishers will also qualify. If not, the two runners-up will play off to determine the third qualifier, with the loser going on to play for a spot against a team from another confederation.
The total number of games for the top thirty-two teams, not including any needed play offs after the final round, is eighteen. That's the same number of games as in the previous set up.
Seeding will play a major role in this process because of the final round moving to two groups. If the United States and Mexico are the top ranked teams in the region, does that guarantee that they will be drawn in different groups? If CONCACAF does not use rankings in the final round and draws teams together randomly, a possible group with the US and Mexico together would unbalance qualification significantly; add in the possibility of the second place finisher in such a group having to play off against a nation from another region just to qualify, and things could get very interesting.
Keep in mind that if seeding is used throughout, and the US and Mexico are not drawn into the same final round group, they could both qualify without ever having to play each other.
*UPDATE*
I'm moving Jason Kuenle's comment into the post because it provide a likely reason for why CONCACAF is changing things:
My guess is this has to do with two things; money and rankings. While the number of games played by the top teams will not change from 18, the number of games played by lesser CONCACAF teams will go up, in some cases dramatically. Matches for these second tier teams obviously bring in revenue, but they also should increase the FIFA rankings for those CONCACAF teams.
Take Jamaica - last cycle they played 8 matches, two against Bahamas in the second round and then in the group, two against each of Mexico, Honduras, and Canada. They totaled 5 wins, 1 draw, and 2 loses. Under the new system, they would be in Pot A, and play against a Pot B team like Haiti, Guatemala, or Cuba, a Pot C team like Suriname, Puerto Rico, or Belize, and a Pot D team like Bahamas or Aruba. They should move out of this group with a record of around 4-1-1. They would then move to a group that looked similar to the Mexico, Honduras, Canada group, where they went 3-1-2. Even if they did not make the final groups, they would have played 4 additional matches, including two home gates for the federation. An additional two teams making the final round gives even more chances to play all 18 matches.
Matches played in 2010:
20 - 1 team
18 - 5 teams
10 - 1 team
8 - 5 teams
4 - 9 teams
2 - 14 teams
Total matches played - 112
Under the new rules:
18 - 8 teams
12 - 8 teams
8 - 3 teams
6 - 5 teams
2 - 3 teams
Total matches played - 150
Because World Cup qualifier matches have a 2.5 multiplier on them compared to friendlies, more qualifiers means more points, which means a higher ranking for midlevel teams. It's akin to fattening these teams up as a sacrfice when they play the US and Mexico. The US and Mexico have been just on the outside of being seeded for the last several world cups. The new qualification route means avoiding loses to each other while increasing the points gained by beating other teams. Also, the new qualification procedure takes advantage of the new confederation rankings giving CONCACAF a slight edge over AFC and CAF.
It is sad that there will no longer be a "winner" of the qualification and that we may not face Mexico in qualifying, but it's a good move by CONCACAF. The mid-tier nations need to be the backbone on which CONCACAF grows. Getting those federations a greater number of competitive matches and more money (if it's not wasted or embezzled) will help the US in the long run.
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| CONCACAF's biggest problem |
Whatever the reasons you ascribe to the atrocious officiating rampant in the CONCACAF Champions League, be it simple slanted incompetence, conscience bias, or outright corruption, it is very clear that there's a problem. Whether that problem begs action on the part of fans, bloggers, and writers is a much more difficult question. Besides, how much effect could any action have?
The issue of effectiveness is essentially one of defeatism; if you believe that a "protest", be it via demonstrations of disgust in a stadium setting or through electronic means like emails and social media, is ultimately pointless because CONCACAF is opaque and intransigent, then throw up your hands and move along. While the goal of any action is results, in this case it's more about the show of force; MLS is growing, the fan base is ever more sizable and rabid, and CONCACAF should be made aware that there's a reason to listen.
By proxy, or in addition to the CONCACAF-aimed anger, clear message can be sent to USSF and other member federations that pressure must be placed on the regional body to fix the problem. This isn't about one call in one game, this is about a pattern of downright laughable decisions that impugn the credibility of not only the Champions League but everything else that bears the "CONCACAF" stamp. It's bad enough the the region is bathed in the noxious light of a unscrupulous star called Jack Warner, only yesterday again implicated in a World Cup ticket scam; that fans must put up their teams participating in a competition that too often smells of corruption is disgusting.
Make no mistake: CONCACAF's problems affect all MLS teams, present and future. It's easy to dismiss the "moaning" of one group of fans, particularly if that fan base isn't exactly popular with everyone else, but petty bickering should be set aside. If your team isn't in the competition this year, it might be next year or the year after.
The only valid reason to avoid making noise about this problem is denying its existence. I find that a difficult assessment to make.
Don Garber appears to be holding his tongue, likely in order to avoid upsetting the cart carrying the US World Cup bid, and we can assume US Soccer is following the same strategy. There's what should be, and then there's what is: Jack Warner is, and his displeasure at a American uprising could conceivably keep the World Cup from coming back to the US. But a presumed lack of action on the part of Garber, Gulati, and others in power should not deter anyone from voicing their concerns; again, the show of solidarity is just as important than any response by the powers that be. Make enough noise, and you're sure to be noticed. American and Canadian fans have never been better positioned to make themselves heard.
CONCACAF might never change. Corruption might always be par for the course. MLS teams might, in a practical sense, be best advised to suck it up and learn how to play within the broken (or perhaps bent) system. Luckily, none of that precludes fans, team administrators or commissioners from taking it upon themselves to make a speaking out clearly and forcefully. Adjusting in an effort to win is not mutually exclusive to speaking out that things must get better.
In this situation, we're all on the same team. Fan bias and recency may give it the look of a problem limited to a few teams in just 2010, but this is not the first year MLS teams have found themselves on the wrong end of suspicious decisions in this competition. Timing does not render the argument and concern illegitimate. This is not just a wine made from sour grapes. You can rest the problem will continue indefinitely unless the process of calling for something to be done begins in earnest.
If not now, when?
Meanwhile, I don't have time at the moment to comment on how poorly MLSsoccer.com has handled the fall out. Let's just say it wasn't constructive.
MLS, meaning the corporate entity that runs a soccer league rather than the competition of teams on the field, announced the formation of two committees this week. Though these committees have different tasks, one looking inward while the other focuses on league fortunes abroad, they collectively represent a visible commitment on the part of the people in charge to address two of the more frustrating (and blogged about) issues facing the league: The US Open Cup and the CONCACAF Champions League.
The former is an absolute disaster from an MLS perspective. Few fans care, fewer show up to watch, and clubs rarely prioritize it above de facto reserve league status. The abject nature of the competition at the top level is a death spiral: the fans don't care because the clubs don't, and the clubs don't care because the fans don't show up.
Midweek matches are notoriously tough to sell in the US, and with US Open Cup clashes existing only in that attendance wasteland, it doesn't behoove teams to market it aggressively. Often, the financial considerations lead clubs to choose cheaper auxiliary facilities over their usual homes, driving the relevance meter down further. Simply put, the MLS profile and interest level of the US Open Cup is at life-support levels, and though proponents of the history-rich tournament do their best to breath what life into it they can, it's clearly time to assess the situation.
The latter is a matter of Major League Soccer's ability to compete with other teams from the region (mostly Mexican) for the title of CONCACAF champion. The deflating fact that they simply can't, with the the relative quality of its teams lacking and the tournament format penalizing a league that is only just starting its pre-season during the knockout stages, is doubly troubling in light of Mexico's biggest teams giving more weight to the Copa Libertadores than their own regional championship. If MLS has dreams of ascending to regional supremacy, or simply hopes to make the FIFA Club World Cup for marketing reasons, something has to be done.
What exactly, short of spending significantly more on player salaries across the board, something we know won't happen anytime soon, is anyone's guess. MLS will not, under any circumstances, alter their business philosophy and slow-growth model just to finally have a team or two win in Mexico when it counts.
Hence the committees for both problems, groups likely to make recommendations commiserate with the over-arching attitude of a frugal, yet aspiring, league. Whether these groups will have any real power, of if their suggestions will be noted, discussed, but ultimately discarded, is a question for future consideration. Simply forming committees gives reason to lend the league the benefit of the doubt, recognizing that there will be at least some effort made to correct problems facing MLS teams in each competition.
Not that you should hold your breath on major changes coming any time soon. The forming of committees is, in itself, no real action. There's bound to be months of discussion with no final conclusions drawn while we all forget that the committees even exist. In the case of the US Open Cup committee, all the league can do is make recommendations to US Soccer, who will then need to address changes themselves. This could take awhile.
But hey, you gotta start somewhere, right?
As someone who has stood in the supporters section in Crew Stadium to see the mighty Yanks put the dos a cero on Mexico, I know the importance of home field advantage and a friendly crowd behind you. As a member of Sam's Army (have flag, will travel), I'm aware of the problem that exists when it comes to scheduling USMNT matches. The stronger the opponent, the more motivated their supporters are to come out and support the national side. Last year, I personally saw strong contingents from Mexico, Costa Rica, and Honduras, while Trinidad, Canada, and Panama had more modest followings. This makes choosing the venues for our most important matches much more difficult.
I for one, have been quite pleased with how the USSF has distributed match hosting. In terms of our most difficult home fixture, hosting Mexico in Columbus was, demographically and geographically, an astute decision. Just as the Russian Army has "General Winter," the weather is a big factor when it comes to US games in Columbus. It's the kind of psychological edge that fills Mexican minds with fear and trepidation, and swells the confidence and courage of the American players. It's the kind of intangible you cannot measure, cannot quantify, and cannot buy. It is our Stalingrad, our Gibraltar, our Helm's Deep. In 2005, my father saw the Yanks beat El Tri to qualify for Germany. In 2009, I endured the kind of storm that can only be described as "biblical" to see the beginning of our 2010 Hex campaign. In both games, the majority of fans supported the US, and in both games, The US won.
When it comes to games that might be considered easier or less crucial than a qualifier against Mexico, the Federation has used the Nats to bolster soccer interest in newer MLS teams (Portland, Philadelphia, Salt Lake City) and to proselytize soccer in new markets (I was at Nashville last April, where we got over twenty-seven thousand). It's a brilliant strategy. The USMNT is the highest profile commodity in American soccer, and it carries a glamor that the MLS doesn't quite have yet. A chance to see the Yanks play live, and experience everything special and unique the match day atmosphere at a soccer game has to offer can mean the difference between a kid being someone who played soccer as a child and a lifelong, travel-to-far-away-matches kind of fan. It is only by reaching out to new fans, and new markets that the USMNT can ever hope to have home field advantage in its own country.
Another factor that must be considered is national team burnout, or how many times a market can host matches in a given time period, and still continue to draw. I doubt whether any city in America could hold even half of our home matches and consistently draw crowds of twenty to twenty-five thousand. DC can't do it, New York can't do it, and even Seattle can't do it.
And to be perfectly honest, I like going to new stadiums, seeing the country out of a bus window, wandering around strange cities in post-match delirium. Soccer in this country is still growing, and major, constant home field advantage in every game will come, but there's no single city or magic formula that will bring it about instantly, or as quickly as we'd all like. It will come through the combined efforts of the Federation and the supporters working together to entrench our sport in the American psyche.
by Matt - US Soccer Daily
When the issue of home field advantage comes up, there always seems to be a boisterous faction calling for a bonefied national stadium a la Wembley or Azteca (though, obviously, on a smaller scale). But the demographic distribution within the US makes finding one city that would consistently yield a home field advantage against all major CONCACAF teams essentially an impossible task.
My proposal is not for one fixed venue, but for eight fixed venues, one assigned for each of the top teams in CONCACAF (no offense, Barbados, but you're not exactly keeping us up at night) so as to provide locations that are far from the most highly populated American cities for the respective ethnicities.
Now, my only tools in this endeavor were some census data and about an hour of my time, so excuse any soft reasoning or slip ups in judgment. With that, I give you my suggestions for matches against eight other CONCACAF contenders: Mexico, Honduras, Guatemala, Panama, Honduras, Trinidad & Tobago, Costa Rica, and Jamaica. (Due to some pressing matters, I didn't have time to include any others such as Canada, Cuba, or Haiti, but I don't think those would be overly difficult to figure out. It should also be a testament to Canada's ineptitude that I completely forgot about them the first time I made up a list of decent CONCACAF sides.)
Mexico- Columbus, Ohio: If it ain't broke, don't fix it. Getting a home field advantage against Mexico is the most difficult of the bunch given the millions of El Tri supporters who reside in the States, so it shouldn't be overlooked that the Yanks have enjoyed the majority of the support at games in Columbus over the past decade. USSF seems to have already adopted this idea of an opponent-specific venue for our biggest rival, with the last three Hex qualifiers against Mexico taking place at the friendly confines of Crew Stadium.
Honduras- Seattle, Washington: Well, Chicago didn't exactly work out, and cities along the east coast probably wouldn't work much better (ask fans in DC how it's worked in the past). So why not avoid the east coast and sun belt entirely and instead head up to the Great Northwest, where soccer fans in Seattle have already shown a great passion for the game. The city is about 1,000 miles from the closest region with a significant Honduran population (that being Northern California), and even if fans of Los Catrachos were to make their way northward, I have a feeling the American fans in the Emerald City would still dominate Qwest Field.
Costa Rica- Washington, DC: Along the lines of Mexico at Columbus, the USMNT enjoyed a very pro-US crowd at RFK this past October. Let's keep a good thing going.
Jamaica- Sandy, Utah: An overwhelming majority of the Jamaican population in the United States is split between Florida and New York. So, let's go a couple of thousand miles west of both of those places and play the Reggae Boyz in picturesque Sandy. The fans in Utah have supported the Yanks well in the last two qualifiers there (though their showing at Rice-Eccles Stadium in 2005 was much more impressive than last year's match), and the location would make it very difficult for hordes of Jamaican fans to support their team in person.
Trinidad & Tobago- Nashville, Tennessee: Once again, this worked well back in March, with a decidedly pro-US crowd inspiring Bob Bradley's men on to a 3-0 victory. With a majority of the Trinidadian population living in and around New York, the Soca Warriors didn't enjoy a great deal of support at LP Field.
Panama- Philadelphia, Pennsylvania: There isn't a huge Panamanian population in the US, and it's pretty spread out at that. Over the summer, the USMNT enjoyed some nice home field advantage in the Gold Cup quarterfinals, with only a section or two of Panamanian fans in attendance (who were drowned out by American fans like myself in the next section over). The crowd was the largest in the Gold Cup of any match not involving Mexico, and anyone who was there will tell you that it was most definitely a pro-American crowd. I might be a little biased here, having lived in Philly all of my life, but I think the USSF is just starting to discover the fantastic fans in the City of Brotherly Love.
Guatemala- Commerce City, Colorado: With many Guatemalans calling New York and California home, I figured I'd put this one somewhere in between. The crowd at Dick's Sporting Goods Park back in the USMNT's 2008 qualifier against Guatemala had a pro-American majority, and even though Guatemala's qualification hopes were at stake, there was not a really noticeable presence of light blue and white in the stands. The crowd may have been small (9,000 and change), but it wasn't much less than the one at Toyota Park for another 2008 qualifier (11,000 and change), and I think a more important match would bring a bigger crowd out to Commerce City.
El Salvador- Portland, Oregon: This one was a little harder because I left it for last and used up a lot of options with other teams. Also complicating matters is the fact that there are large communities of Salvadorans in many metropolitan areas across the country. Despite the proximity of Salvadoran populations in Northern California and Los Angeles, I think a small stadium coupled with the fervent American soccer fans in the Rose City would be able to create a nice home field advantage for the Red, White, and Blue.----
Now to address some potential cons to this approach. The fixed venues would mean that fans in certain cities wouldn't have the same opportunity to see the USMNT play. But, sorry to all my readers in Southern California or Texas, World Cup qualifiers are about results first and foremost, not about reaching all corners of the country. Even so, I think the geographic spread of the cities I suggested makes at least one venue within a reasonable distance of a sizable portion of the population. The USSF can fill the void by bringing friendlies to the neglected areas (which they already do on a regular basis) or the second round home qualifier against some Caribbean minnow.
Another con might be that these predictable venues could allow opposing fans to prepare for a trip far in advance, but the fact that the dates of the respective matches are not released until just a couple of months before they actually take place means that the amount of planning a group of opposing supporters could do would be no different than what they can already do with the current set up.
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With a little more time to look at demographics and other factors, I may have been able to make some more informed decisions, but I don't think I was too far off base with any of the cities included. I fully expect that you won't completely agree with all of my choices, but it was the concept that I wanted to communicate more so than the specific suggestions.
I really just want nothing more than to see a stadium packed with American supporters each and every time our boys take the field for a World Cup qualifier in the good ol' US of A.
Editor's Note: This piece was cross-posted to US Soccer Daily
by Matt - US Soccer Daily
Soccer junkies couldn’t ask for more this weekend, as MLS conference finals, World Cup qualifiers, and marquee friendlies all combine for one spectacular Saturday. So get in front of your TV, get your laptop ready, and spend your Saturday on the couch taking it all in. Here’s what I’ll be watching (and my predictions that are sure to be wrong):
Friday, 11:25 PM ET – Galaxy v. Dynamo
So technically this starts today, but with the bulk of it being played in the wee hours of Saturday morning, it can’t be ignored. The two best teams from the West made it through the first round and will now square off for a spot in the MLS Cup final. Landon Donovan’s torrid run of form has spanned essentially the entire summer and is now covering most of the fall, as he shows no signs of slowing down. He’ll have to tangle with a stingy Houston defense that was able to keep Seattle off the score sheet for 210 minutes of first round play. The Dynamo will be without backline regular Mike Chabala due to yellow card accumulation.
Prediction: Galaxy win and move on to the MLS Cup final. MLS and ESPN officials rejoice that David Beckham will be in the league’s biggest game of the year.
Saturday, 2:00 AM ET- New Zealand v. Bahrain
For the insomniacs out there, tune in to the second leg of the OFC-AFC playoff. Everything is up for grabs in this one, as the first leg finished in a 0-0 draw in Bahrain. New Zealand have looked like a much more confident side since the Confederations Cup, where they earned a draw against Iraq for their first ever point in a senior FIFA competition. Because of away goals, Bahrain can advance with a win or a non-scoreless draw. A sold-out Westpac Stadium will be supporting the Kiwis, who will be looking to get back to the World Cup for the first time since their lone appearance in 1982.
Prediction: New Zealand win in dramatic fashion to move on to South Africa.
Saturday, 10:00 AM ET- USA v. Slovakia
With qualification secured, the whole process of trimming and finalizing the roster begins in earnest, with Saturday’s match in Bratislava serving as the first test for some fringe players brought into camp. Eddie Johnson and Jeff Cunningham will try to wow Bob Bradley and fill some of the void left by Charlie Davies’ unfortunate injury, while Chad Marshall, Jimmy Conrad, and Clarence Goodson will all be vying for the starting centerback spot next to Carlos Bocanegra. With several dangerous players in the attack, Slovakia will provide a solid test for whoever gets the nod.
Prediction: USA 2 – Slovakia 1. The US will concede a goal due to some backline unfamiliarity, but they’ll pull out the win thanks to a goal from one of the forwards mentioned above that will surely send the message board world into a state of chaos.
Saturday, 12:30 PM ET- Algeria v. Egypt
You could choose to watch the England-Brazil friendly in Qatar at noon, but with much more on the line, I’ll be tuned into some CAF qualifying in Cairo. Algeria have a 3 point lead and +4 goal differential advantage over Egypt heading into this one. Egypt can move on by winning by 3 goals or more, while Algeria can lose by 1, draw, or win to make it to their first World Cup since 1986. If Egypt wins by 2, the two sides will square off in a one match playoff in Sudan next Wednesday to see who moves on.
Prediction: It would be really dramatic and intense if these two teams did play a playoff on Wednesday, but I think Algeria will get the necessary result on Saturday and book their ticket to South Africa. The Algerians have only allowed 2 goals in 5 third round matches and no more than 1 in any game, so it will be a tall task for the Pharaohs to make up the goal differential.
Saturday, 3:00 PM ET- Ireland v. France
France have been underwhelming to say the least in UEFA qualification, but lucky for them they have FIFA to give them a boost, which came in the form of the much-publicized, oft-criticized playoff seeding system. Giovanni Trapattoni’s Ireland squad will have a huge chip on their shoulder and some confidence that they can play with the big boys after narrowly missing out on a home win against Italy last month.
Prediction: Ireland win. Although I am still angered by FIFA’s decision to seed the playoffs and still think it was a cheap way to sully the integrity of the competition, I’m making this prediction with my head, not my heart. Ireland’s display against Italy showed that they can hang with the elite, and they have plenty of extra motivation heading into their home leg.
Saturday, 3:30 PM ET- Portugal v. Bosnia and Herzegovina
If you choose to watch the Ireland-France match, you can at least catch the final half hour or so of this game. It seems that the fates are conspiring against the Portuguese, who will now be without Cristiano Ronaldo thanks to an ankle injury that he aggravated in last month’s qualifier against Hungary. So despite FIFA’s best efforts, qualifying for the World Cup will still be very difficult for Portugal. Bosnia and Herzegovina have several talented strikers, including Wolfsburg’s Edin Dzeko, who will likely cause some problems for the opposing defense. The match will be played in Lisbon.
Prediction: Draw. Portugal have not been dominant at home, dropping points in scoreless draws with Albania and Sweden and losing to Denmark. Their offense will surely suffer some without Ronaldo in the lineup.
Saturday, 8:00 PM ET- Chicago Fire v. Real Salt Lake
Last year, it was Real Salt Lake who were ousted in the conference final by a streaky lower seed playing in the wrong conference, as New York stunned them at Rio Tinto to move on to the MLS Cup. Jason Kreis and company will try to play that role of spoiler this time around when they head to Toyota Park to take on the Fire. Expect another sell-out and passionate crowd similar to the one that took in the second leg of the Fire’s first round tie with New England.
Prediction: Fire win. RSL will try valiantly to keep their run alive, but Blanco, Pappa, and McBride will prove to be too much to handle. Elsewhere, MLS and ESPN officials will resume rejoicing after finding out the Cuauhtemoc Blanco will also be making the trip to Seattle for a matchup featuring the league’s 3 biggest stars and 2 biggest international attractions.
Saturday, 9:00 PM ET- Costa Rica v. Uruguay
Costa Rica will host the Uruguayans, who find themselves in an inter-continental playoff for the third consecutive qualifying cycle. Expect the turf and raucous environment at Estadio Saprissa to play a huge role in this game, two things that the South American side has probably never seen anything quite like. After their collapse at the end of the USA match, the Ticos will be looking to get a leg up in the first match in an effort to become the fourth CONCACAF side headed to South Africa.
Prediction: Costa Rica win. Though Mexico showed that good teams can come into Saprissa and knock off the Ticos, I expect that the home side will be able to pull out the win over Uruguay.
There’s definitely plenty more on tap tomorrow, but I think I got most of the big stuff covered. Enjoy your Saturday everybody.
National Team
Costa Rica is similarly ranked to Honduras, but for a different reason. Honduras has several impressive wins since the last World Cup while having lost games at key times to inferior opponents that have kept them from moving up the ranks. Costa Rica on the other hand has tended to get the results that people expected, though often by surprising score lines.
Costa Rica’s performance in the Hexagonal is typical of their last four years. Home wins against the US, Honduras, El Salvador, and T&T and a home loss to Mexico are not surprising results, but beating the US and Honduras by a combined four goals then losing to Mexico by 3 is. Likewise road loses at Mexico, Honduras, and El Salvador are not surprising results, but the magnitude of the 4-0 beat down in Honduras was unexpected.
Their consistent beating of inferior opponents has led them to dominate Central America. They have played in the final match of the UNCAF Nations Cup (the Central American championship) in 9 of the 10 tournaments; winning six times. In four of the last five Gold Cups, they have been knocked out by either Mexico or the US. Along with the US and Mexico, they have qualified for every Hexagonal (started for WC 1998 qualification), and have finished as the Central American team with the most points in every one. After the US and Mexico, they have the most World Cup appearances in the region.
Their consecutive losses to Honduras, Mexico, and El Salvador resulted in the replacement of their coach this September. René Simões is a 56 year old Brazilian whose career highlights include managing the Jamaicans in their first and only World Cup appearance, managing the Brazilian women’s team to Olympic silver in 2004, and managing the Iranian U-23 team in 2006. He has spent the last few years bouncing between various club and national team positions.
Costa Rica’s recent inability to pull an upset is disheartening for their World Cup aspirations. Because of this, I like Honduras’ chances against the CONMEBOL team in the play-in much better than I like Costa Rica’s. If four CONCACAF teams in the World Cup will do the US more good in the draw than winning the Hex, then I’m somewhat inclined to hope that Costa Rica gets the other automatic bid. A US win and a Honduras loss or draw, is likely the best possible combination of results for the US for World Cup seeding purposes.
Domestic League
Like many other Latin American countries, Costa Rica plays crowns two champions per season, one in the autumn, the Invierno; and one in the spring, the Verano. Recent history has been dominated by Saprissa and Alajuelense. Along with Herediano, who dominated the early years of the league, these three clubs have 73 of the 89 titles among them. Saprissa’s international history is one of the more impressive in CONCACAF, including 3 CONCACAF Champion’s Cup wins and a third place at the FIFA Club World Cup in 2005. They currently sit in third in Group C of this year’s CCL, behind Cruz Azul and the Columbus Crew. Costa Rica’s other two participants, Herediano and Liberia Mia, were knocked out in the preliminary round by Cruz Azul and Real Espana, respectively.
Player Pool
Walter Centeno
The below players have been called in for the current set of matches:
| Current FIFA Rank: | 39 |
| Highest FIFA Rank: | 17 |
| Average FIFA Rank: | 48 |
| World Cup Appearances: | 3 (1990, 2002, 2006) |
| Last Costa Rica Result in US: | 0-0 (July 12, 2005 Gold Cup) |
| Head Coach: | René Simões |
| Big Results Since 2006 World Cup | Surprising Losses Since 2006 World Cup | |
| 9/5/09 | 0-3 versus Mexico | |
| 8/12/09 | 0-4 at Honduras | |
| 6/27/09 | 1-0 versus Venezuela | |
| 6/3/09 | 3-1 versus US | |
| 5/13/09 | 1-1 at Venezuela | |
| 6/6/07 | 1-2 versus Canada in US | |
| 6/2/07 | 2-0 versus Chile | |
| 3/28/07 | 1-1 at Chile | |
| 2/9/07 | 3-1 versus Honduras in El Salvador |
Costa Rica is similarly ranked to Honduras, but for a different reason. Honduras has several impressive wins since the last World Cup while having lost games at key times to inferior opponents that have kept them from moving up the ranks. Costa Rica on the other hand has tended to get the results that people expected, though often by surprising score lines.
Costa Rica’s performance in the Hexagonal is typical of their last four years. Home wins against the US, Honduras, El Salvador, and T&T and a home loss to Mexico are not surprising results, but beating the US and Honduras by a combined four goals then losing to Mexico by 3 is. Likewise road loses at Mexico, Honduras, and El Salvador are not surprising results, but the magnitude of the 4-0 beat down in Honduras was unexpected.
Their consistent beating of inferior opponents has led them to dominate Central America. They have played in the final match of the UNCAF Nations Cup (the Central American championship) in 9 of the 10 tournaments; winning six times. In four of the last five Gold Cups, they have been knocked out by either Mexico or the US. Along with the US and Mexico, they have qualified for every Hexagonal (started for WC 1998 qualification), and have finished as the Central American team with the most points in every one. After the US and Mexico, they have the most World Cup appearances in the region.
Their consecutive losses to Honduras, Mexico, and El Salvador resulted in the replacement of their coach this September. René Simões is a 56 year old Brazilian whose career highlights include managing the Jamaicans in their first and only World Cup appearance, managing the Brazilian women’s team to Olympic silver in 2004, and managing the Iranian U-23 team in 2006. He has spent the last few years bouncing between various club and national team positions.
Costa Rica’s recent inability to pull an upset is disheartening for their World Cup aspirations. Because of this, I like Honduras’ chances against the CONMEBOL team in the play-in much better than I like Costa Rica’s. If four CONCACAF teams in the World Cup will do the US more good in the draw than winning the Hex, then I’m somewhat inclined to hope that Costa Rica gets the other automatic bid. A US win and a Honduras loss or draw, is likely the best possible combination of results for the US for World Cup seeding purposes.
Domestic League
| Highest League: | Primera División de Costa Rica |
| Number of Teams: | 12 |
| League Season: | Split Season (autumn and spring) |
| League Structure: | Two tables (six teams each) |
| Champion Determined By: | 6 team playoff |
| Current Champion | C.F. Liberia Mia |
Like many other Latin American countries, Costa Rica plays crowns two champions per season, one in the autumn, the Invierno; and one in the spring, the Verano. Recent history has been dominated by Saprissa and Alajuelense. Along with Herediano, who dominated the early years of the league, these three clubs have 73 of the 89 titles among them. Saprissa’s international history is one of the more impressive in CONCACAF, including 3 CONCACAF Champion’s Cup wins and a third place at the FIFA Club World Cup in 2005. They currently sit in third in Group C of this year’s CCL, behind Cruz Azul and the Columbus Crew. Costa Rica’s other two participants, Herediano and Liberia Mia, were knocked out in the preliminary round by Cruz Azul and Real Espana, respectively.
Player Pool
The below players have been called in for the current set of matches:
| GK | Keylor Navas | Saprissa | Costa Rica |
| GK | Ricardo González | CS Herediano | Costa Rica |
| GK | Adrian De Lemos | CS Herediano | Costa Rica |
| DF | Esteban Sirias | Liberia | Costa Rica |
| DF | Cristian Montero | CS Herediano | Costa Rica |
| DF | Pablo Herrera | Aalesunds FK | Norway |
| DF | Leonardo Gonzalez | Seattle Sounders FC | USA |
| DF | Roy Myrie | Gent | Belgium |
| DF | Gilberto Martínez | Brescia | Italy |
| DF | Dennis Marshall | AaB | Denmark |
| DF | Michael Umaña | Liberia | Costa Rica |
| DF | Júnior Díaz | Wisła Kraków | Poland |
| DF | Randall Azofeifa | Gent | Belgium |
| MF | Luis Marín | L.D. Alajuelense | Costa Rica |
| MF | Óscar Seravalli | CS Cartaginés | Costa Rica |
| MF | Celso Borges | Fredrikstad | Norway |
| MF | Walter Centeno | Saprissa | Costa Rica |
| MF | Armando Alonso | Saprissa | Costa Rica |
| MF | Michael Barrantes | Saprissa | Costa Rica |
| MF | Cristian Oviedo | L.D. Alajuelense | Costa Rica |
| MF | Douglas Sequeira | Saprissa | Costa Rica |
| MF | Christian Bolaños | IK Start | Norway |
| FW | Bryan Ruiz | FC Twente | Netherlands |
| FW | Álvaro Saborío | Bristol City FC | England |
| FW | Froylán Ledezma | VfB Admira Wacker Mödling | Austria |
| FW | Rolando Fonseca | CSD Comunicaciones | Guatemala |
| FW | Victor Núñez | Liberia | Costa Rica |
CONCACAF gets slighted for being a "Big Two" and little 33. I always took that to be a fact, and didn't bother much with CONCACAF outside of Mexico. But the tightness of the hex through 8 match days caused me to wonder what about these two "other" teams fighting for a qualification spot. Below is an overview of what Honduras brings to the table:
The National Team
Honduras is part of tightly packed group of countries in the FIFA rankings that includes the likes of Costa Rica, Sweden, Columbia, Japan, and Algeria. Their win list over the last four years has some good to midlevel teams on it, while their bad losses have been few with the exception of an up and down 2007. However, the inconsistency that is the mark of the teams with similar rankings has kept them from gaining the respect that they could have.
Historically, they have tended to give up points in home matches when they have need them. They missed the hex in 2006 when they drew four times in their six games in a difficult semifinal group (Costa Rica, Guatemala, Canada, Honduras). That year, a win at home against Costa Rica on the final match day, would have sent them through to the hex; however, all the could muster was one of those four draws. In 2002 qualifying, they came in a close fourth in the hex, being bested by Costa Rica, Mexico, and the US. That year, a second to last match day win at home to T&T would have left them needing either a draw at Mexico or a US loss on the last day to punch their ticket to the World Cup, but they lost 1-0 for T&T’s only win of the hex that cycle, effectively eliminating them.
In other competitions, the theme has been similar. In the UNCAF Nations Cup (the Central American championship) this year, their 1-0 loss to Panama in the semi-finals kept the host country from an anticipated final against Costa Rica. Their Gold Cup run this year ended against a US “B” side in the semifinals. In the 2007 version of the Gold Cup, Honduras managed to win their group, including a win against Mexico, before losing in the quarterfinals 2-1 to Guadeloupe. Honduras is talented enough to be a dangerous team. Yet, they are inconsistent enough for the US to come away with points in this match.
Domestic League
Like many other Latin American countries, Honduras plays crowns two champions per season, one in the autumn, the Apertura; and one in the spring, the Clausura. Honduras has their own equivalent to the “Big Four” with CD Olimpia, Motagua, Real Espana, and Marathon. One of these teams has won every title since the 2001 Clausura and are the top four in the standings of this year’s Apertura. Three of the four qualified to this year’s CONCACAF Champion’s League. Olimpia was knocked out in the preliminary stage by Arabe Unido of Panama, while Real Espana beat Liberia of Costa Rica to advance to the group stage, where they are third in Group D and missing out on qualification to the knockout phase by goal differential. Marathon got Honduras’ automatic berth to the group stage where it is tied with DC United in points but also behind in goal differential in Group B. As you can see in the player pool below, the national team players from Honduras almost exclusively come from these 4 clubs.
Player Pool
Bold designates named to team roster for upcoming US match.
If you found this useful, interesting, or helpful, drop a note in the comments and I'll try to do something similar for the Costa Rica match.
The National Team
 | |
| Current FIFA Rank: Highest FIFA Rank: Average FIFA rank: World Cup Appearances: Last US points in Honduras: | 42 20 (9/2001) 51 1 (1982) 3/28/01 (2-1) |
| Big Results Since 2006 World Cup | Surprising Losses Since 2006 World Cup | |
| 8/12/09 | 4-0 versus Costa Rica | |
| 4/1/09 | 3-1 versus Mexico | |
| 1/30/09 | 0-1 versus Panama | |
| 1/12/09 | 2-0 versus Chile in US | |
| 11/19/08 | 1-0 versus Mexico | |
| 5/30/08 | 1-1 versus Venezuela in US | |
| 3/26/08 | 2-1 versus Columbia in US | |
| 2/6/08 | 2-0 versus Paraguay | |
| 9/12/07 | 2-1 versus Ecuador | |
| 8/22/07 | 0-2 at El Salvador | |
| 6/17/07 | 1-2 versus Guadeloupe in US | |
| 6/10/07 | 2-1 versus Mexico in US | |
| 4/19/07 | 1-3 versus Haiti | |
| 1/27/07 | 1-1 versus Denmark | |
| 8/16/06 | 0-0 at Venezuela |
Honduras is part of tightly packed group of countries in the FIFA rankings that includes the likes of Costa Rica, Sweden, Columbia, Japan, and Algeria. Their win list over the last four years has some good to midlevel teams on it, while their bad losses have been few with the exception of an up and down 2007. However, the inconsistency that is the mark of the teams with similar rankings has kept them from gaining the respect that they could have.
Historically, they have tended to give up points in home matches when they have need them. They missed the hex in 2006 when they drew four times in their six games in a difficult semifinal group (Costa Rica, Guatemala, Canada, Honduras). That year, a win at home against Costa Rica on the final match day, would have sent them through to the hex; however, all the could muster was one of those four draws. In 2002 qualifying, they came in a close fourth in the hex, being bested by Costa Rica, Mexico, and the US. That year, a second to last match day win at home to T&T would have left them needing either a draw at Mexico or a US loss on the last day to punch their ticket to the World Cup, but they lost 1-0 for T&T’s only win of the hex that cycle, effectively eliminating them.
In other competitions, the theme has been similar. In the UNCAF Nations Cup (the Central American championship) this year, their 1-0 loss to Panama in the semi-finals kept the host country from an anticipated final against Costa Rica. Their Gold Cup run this year ended against a US “B” side in the semifinals. In the 2007 version of the Gold Cup, Honduras managed to win their group, including a win against Mexico, before losing in the quarterfinals 2-1 to Guadeloupe. Honduras is talented enough to be a dangerous team. Yet, they are inconsistent enough for the US to come away with points in this match.
Domestic League
 | |
| Highest League: Number of Teams: League Season: League Structure: Champion Determined By: Current Champion: | Liga Nacional de Futbol 10 Split season (autumn and spring) Single table home and away Four team playoff with two legged rounds CD Olimpia |
Like many other Latin American countries, Honduras plays crowns two champions per season, one in the autumn, the Apertura; and one in the spring, the Clausura. Honduras has their own equivalent to the “Big Four” with CD Olimpia, Motagua, Real Espana, and Marathon. One of these teams has won every title since the 2001 Clausura and are the top four in the standings of this year’s Apertura. Three of the four qualified to this year’s CONCACAF Champion’s League. Olimpia was knocked out in the preliminary stage by Arabe Unido of Panama, while Real Espana beat Liberia of Costa Rica to advance to the group stage, where they are third in Group D and missing out on qualification to the knockout phase by goal differential. Marathon got Honduras’ automatic berth to the group stage where it is tied with DC United in points but also behind in goal differential in Group B. As you can see in the player pool below, the national team players from Honduras almost exclusively come from these 4 clubs.
Player Pool
Bold designates named to team roster for upcoming US match.
| Pos | Name | Club | Country |
| GK | Victor Coello | Marathon | Honduras |
| GK | Ricardo Canales | Motagua | Honduras |
| GK | Noel Valladares | Olimpia | Honduras |
| GK | Donis Escobar | Olimpia | Honduras |
| DF | Maynor Figueroa | Wigan Athletic | England |
| DF | Víctor Bernárdez | Anderlecht | Belgium |
| DF | Marvin Chávez | FC Dallas | USA |
| DF | Erick Norales | Marathón | Honduras |
| DF | Mauricio Sabillón | Marathón | Honduras |
| DF | Mario Beata | Marathón | Honduras |
| DF | Emilio Izaguirre | Motagua | Honduras |
| DF | Ivan Guerrero | Motagua | Honduras |
| DF | Oscar Bonieck García | Olimpia | Honduras |
| DF | Sergio Mendoza | Olimpia | Honduras |
| DF | Johnny Palacios | Olimpia | Honduras |
| DF | Osman Chávez | Platense | Honduras |
| DF | Carlos Palacios | Real Espana | Honduras |
| MF | Wilson Palacios | Tottenham Hotspur | England |
| MF | Hendry Thomas | Wigan Athletic | England |
| MF | Edgar Álvarez | Bari | Italy |
| MF | Julio César de León | Torino | Italy |
| MF | Ramón Núñez | Cruz Azul | Mexico |
| MF | Mauricio Castro | New England Revolution | USA |
| MF | Roger Espinoza | Kansas City Wizards | USA |
| MF | Amado Guevara | Toronto FC | Canada |
| MF | Danilo Turcios | Olimpia | Honduras |
| MF | Melvin Valladares | Real Espana | Honduras |
| MF | Emil Martinez | Beijing Guoan | China |
| FW | David Suazo | Internazionale | Italy |
| FW | Carlo Costly | GKS Bełchatów | Poland |
| FW | Luis López | Durango | Mexico |
| FW | Walter Martínez | Marathón | Honduras |
| FW | Saul Martinez | Marathón | Honduras |
| FW | Jerry Palacios | Marathón | Honduras |
| FW | Georgie Welcome | Motagua | Honduras |
| FW | Carlos Pavón | Real Espana | Honduras |
| FW | Allan Lalín | FK Khazar Lankaran | Azerbaijan |
If you found this useful, interesting, or helpful, drop a note in the comments and I'll try to do something similar for the Costa Rica match.
Costa Rica head coach Rodrigo Kenton was fired today, the move coming on the heels of a poor turn of form for the Ticos that has them sitting in the fourth position of CONCACAF World Cup qualifying.
After flying high out of the gates and climbing to the top of the standings, Costa Rica's recent inability to score has them fighting for a place in South Africa next year. With the fourth place finisher in CONCACAF destined for a playoff with the fifth place finisher in CONMEBOL (currently Argentina), all is not well in San Jose.
Kenton's dismissal now leaves Bob Bradley (USA), Reinaldo Reina (Honduras), and Carlos de los Cobos (El Salvador) as the only head coaches in the Hexagonal that have led their teams for more than a calendar year.
Costa Rica, although in a significantly different position than their northern counterparts, has followed Mexico's lead in switching managers during the crucial latter part of qualifying. Meanwhile, despite vociferous opinions that he should be shown the door, American head man Bob Bradley has never been in serious jeopardy of losing his job. Barring a disastrous collapse in the last two matches of the Hexagonal and failure in the playoff (which is the worst place the US can finish at this point), there's no reason to believe that Bradley won't be manning the sidelines at World Cup 2010.
Results matter here, obviously, and Kenton hasn't been getting them. The same type of failures that led Mexico to let go of Sven Goran Eriksson happened much later for the Ticos, and the timing could be an issue. Costa Rica must now find a coach who can shepherd them to qualification despite taking the top post before the final two matches of the Hex and in the midst of a scoring drought.
While the American soccer mindset and lack of media heat means more stability in for the US head coach, the rabid and life-or-death nature of Latin American football means coaches like Kenton are always just a few losses away from losing their jobs.
Costa Rica's last two matches are home to Trinidad & Tobago (eliminated), and away to the United States. A win against the eliminated Soca Warriors would guarantee them at least the playoff spot; getting a result against in the US, who may need the match to ensure their own qualification, will be much more difficult.
I considered turning this post into a commentary on the different approaches of US Soccer and the Latin American federations, but thought better of it. If you would like to comment on the idea or if you believe Bob Bradley would have been fired if the US was as rabid a footballing country as some of our CONCACAF brethren, feel free.
With a win tonight in Port of Spain, Trinidad & Tobago, the United States can take the first real step towards qualifying for the 2010 World Cup. While three points won't earn them a spot in the finals field, it will guarantee a top four finish; barring a collapse in their remaining two matches (away to Honduras and home to Costa Rica), the Americans should be on their way to their fifth consecutive World Cup.
The last time the Yanks faced off against the Soca Warriors, April 1st in Nashville, Jozy Altidore held his coming out party. The young striker, in the lineup despite being unable to get a game on the club level, scored a hat trick. The Americans did what they were supposed to that day, thumping T&T at home. It would stand to reason then, that the US is due for another comfortable win; T&T isn't in Central America, after all, so that dreaded record of poor away form shouldn't be an issue.
Bob Bradley has re-molded his team since that night in Nashville, with several players staking their claim to first eleven places. Three starters in that match, DeMarcus Beasley, Frankie Hejduk, and Pablo Mastroeni, did not even make the training roster for this round. Charlie Davies, who wasn't a major factor in the National Team picture at the time, has come on rapidly, and is now an almost sure selection.
Still, even with so many positive changes, things will not be easy. The Americans are the better team, that much is clear and certain; whether they can bring their superior talent to bear on the match tonight is another issue altogether. Despite being at home and superior to El Salvador, the US did have a few issues on Saturday, and might be a little lucky to have escaped with three points. Simply controlling the game does not always bring victory, as a few critical moments can turn a match on its head and produce an unexpected result.
Are the Americans both confident and focused enough to dominate on the road tonight? The answer to that question could very well determine if they leave Port of Spain with a triumphant three points and the guarantee of at least a fourth place finish in the Hexagonal, a disappointing draw (which still might guarantee fourth is El Salvador lose to Costa Rica), or a deflating loss. Saturday in Utah, at least for many, did nothing to assuage fears that the US loses themselves a bit when facing inferior competition; the expectation of a resounding win is tough to carry confidently when the team fails to live up to them.
Trinidad & Tobago will be looking to avenge their humiliating loss to the Americans in April, and restore some pride to their terribly disappointed Hexagonal campaign. They will come out with purpose, buoyed by the home crowd, and they might even push the action for the initial phase of the game. If Bob Bradley has properly prepared his team, and if the US has learned from the El Salvador match in recent days, then they will absorb the pressure, take the game by the neck, and dominate the rest of the way. If they truly are the superior team across the board and want to assert themselves, they'll go even further and push the islanders from the start. Either way, they need to do something to restore some of the lost faith; three points is three points, but style matters to many. Beat who you should, and do so convincingly, and the naysayers lose some steam.
The phrase "trap game", while not often applied to soccer, is nonetheless a worn and aged sporting cliché; any game where one team is a prohibitive favorite but faces a few challenges could be easier give the label. For the US, coming off the Saturday match with El Salvador, travelling to an island nation where distractions abound (see Jozy's Tweet from poolside yesterday), and missing one of their strongest defenders (Jay DeMerit) could make tonight's match a classic trap game. Over-confidence or complacency would be disastrous.
Bob Bradley's task then, is to not only set his team out with the best possible chance for victory through lineup and tactics, but to gauge his side's mental health and direct his energies accordingly. To abuse another cliché, it's crunch time, and all parties involved must step up their game.
Anything less than a victory against the bottom team in the Hexagonal standings should not be acceptable.
I full expect the US to win tonight, and I'm hoping they do so in resounding fashion. With Oguchi Onyewu back in central defense, the back line should be much stronger than they were against El Salvador. Jozy Altidore and Charlie Davies continue to develop a dynamic partnership up top, and Landon Donovan is at the height of his powers. If they can limit mistakes and stay away from silly, rash fouls (i.e. cards), tonight should be more of a cakewalk than a trap game.
We hope. USA 2, T&T 0.
I was tempted to title this post "CONCAJOKE Champions League", but thought better of it. Still, too good not to use in some form.
This is going to start with some thoughts on MLS in the competition but quickly devolve into something else. Please bear with me.
Just when it appeared that MLS clubs were beginning to take the CONCACAF Champions League seriously after a week of group stage matches that saw two out of three American entrants win, last night happens. Two terrible showings combined with what was by all reports a joke of a football match, and MLS is back where they started, with a collection of clubs incapable of putting forth a decent showing in international competition.
Relevant MLS numbers from last night's matches: three matches, one point, two goals scored, nine conceded, four players ejected (three for Houston, one for Columbus).
Only the Dynamo saved face last night, although they were forced to do so in some of the worst conditions imaginable for what is promoted as a serious international competition. In all, five players were ejected from Houston's match against Arabe Unido in Panama, including Stuart Holden for picking up two yellows cards in a twenty-second span. Add the lights going out in the waning moments (immediately after Unido leveled the game), and any belief that the CCL should be taken seriously goes out the window.
Yes, I'm a bitter MLS fan. I fully admit that. I'm desperate for the league to do better in this competition, if only because it might shut up some of the detractors and give MLS a little credibility in the greater footballing world. But this tournament, besides being so skewed by the disparity in team bankrolls that any real assessment of leagues other than Mexico's is difficult, suffers from an extreme low-rent profile.
I wasn't able to see the Arabe Unido-Houston match, but what I have heard doesn't make me too bullish on the future of the competition. To say that the lights going out in the stadium immediately following the home side's goal is suspicious is a gross understatement; even if you don't believe that the power outage was intentional, the fact that the lights went out at all just illustrates the problems the Champions League faces.
Small crowds, minimal attention, poor facilities, hostile environments that include thrown items and players in danger of physical harm; the list of problems goes on and on. Many of those issues carry over to other CONCACAF matches, especially international ones in Mexico and Central America. Because the confederation is uninterested in taking measures that might actually affect change but will hurt the bottom line, nothing is done. When fans are filling cups with bodily fluids and then hurling said cups at opposing players, something isn't right. Racist chanting gets major attention in Europe (as it should) and can sometimes result in matches played behind closed doors; why wouldn't CONCACAF step in an demand that national federations do something about the behavior of their fans and the condition of their stadiums, with the threat of closed door or forfeited matches to back them up?
Anyone have Jack Warner's phone number?
If I start on the officiating in the region, we might be here all day. Let's just say that there's some anger on that issue as well, and leave it at that.
CONCACAF is a joke, and it's not because there isn't good soccer being played. When the odd idea comes up that perhaps the United States should pull out of CONCACAF and move to another confederation, I generally laugh it off. I never really though there was a reason to do so, because I always viewed the issue from a competition perspective; the US isn't what Australia was, a good footballing nation stuck in a region filled with minnows, and therefore looking poor by association. Mexico, Costa Rica, Honduras, etc., are all strong teams that play good soccer and quite often push or beat the United States. But maybe I'm looking at the question from the wrong angle.
Why should the US, and by extension MLS, want to remain in a confederation that allows environments that condone criminal behavior (at least I hope throwing bodily fluids at someone is a crime elsewhere in the region), officiating that is so poor it makes a mockery of the game, and a general disregard for order and properly conducted sporting events?
