Perhaps you've been living in a nuclear fallout shelter for some reason, or have just avoided all forms of mass media over the last two weeks or so and didn't know that the NFL season starts tonight.  Well, it does, and the super spectacular kickoff game features the defending Super Bowl champions versus the Brett Favres.  I'm sure many of you will be watching.

National Football League fans will know what I mean when I say 2011 could be a very interesting year. With the country's most popular sports league showing all the signs of heading for a lockout, the possibility exists that there will be no fall Sundays spent watching enormous men battle it out on the gridiron.


Should a lockout happen, a massive sports void will open in the American calendar. From August (when NFL training camp and preseason games begin) until the end of the MLS season in November, the behemoth will be absent. Baseball (through the beginning of November), hockey (starting early October) and basketball (beginning in late October) will have the run of the sports landscape without the dominating and attention-hording presence of the NFL. While baseball still holds a special place in the hearts of many Americans, NFL fans won't be sated by it alone. Meanwhile, hockey is a niche sport that won't capture most casual fans until their playoffs, and early season basketball carries little drama.


The situation seems perfect for a certain American soccer league to step into the void.


As the "other" professional sports competition going on during the early portion of potential lost NFL year, perhaps MLS is in a position to benefit. The league won't convert millions of gridiron fans looking for a stand-in sports product overnight, but it's very possible they can pick up a few more eyeballs. A lack of NFL news might even garner Major League Soccer more time on the prominent sports news shows; without the week of review/preview for each and every NFL game to fill the usual amount of airtime, ESPN and SportsCenter will be scrambling for content. Soccer (MLS included, with all hope) is a natural temporary replacement.


Much of it would be out of the league's hands. They certainly can't make sports fans watch their product, and converting the entrenched anti-soccer crowd is near impossible and hardly worth the effort. Much of the American soccer fan base are also fans of the NFL; the cancelling of a gridiron season won't change their viewing habits anyway, though Euro-focused fans might be swayed to give the domestic game a chance based simply on time zones. When EPL and La Liga matches are over for the day and there is no NFL to watch as they normally would, maybe MLS grabs them.


What the league can control is placing matches in the usual NFL windows on Sunday afternoons during the fall of 2011. This would require a deviation from the norm for those few months, since the majority of the schedule takes place on Saturdays; but a few NFL-less SundayS in September and October are simply be too good to pass up. After years of fall Sundays spent sitting in front of a television watching sports on TV at 1 and 4, 12 and 3, 11 and 2, and 10 and 1 (not to mention the night game), will Americans simply change their habits because there's no NFL?


Most will. There should be no delusion about massive numbers deciding to watch to Fire v. Galaxy because the Cowboys and Giants aren't on. But even a small number represents a net gain for MLS, so switching a few schedules around should be an obvious step to take. Simply moving a handful of Saturday dates to Sunday (allowing for the usual stadium availability and local concerns), would provide Americans with alternate sports viewing in place of the NFL. Getting those games nationally televised in every case might be more difficult, but with contracts up (hello, Versus) and ESPN in a position to utilize a property they already have, it's not beyond the realm of possibility. A clever marketing campaign or two could be enormously effective.


There's a long way to go before we'll know if any of the 2011 NFL season will be lost. The tough talk emanating from both sides now might fade away before the situation comes to a head, and one side or the other may back down in the face of lost revenue and salaries. But this wouldn't be the first time labor strife has hit the NFL, and with the league playing the 2010 season without a salary cap because of the ongoing impasse, several signs point to an "inevitable" lockout. MLS would be remiss if they didn't attempt to put themselves in position to capitalize on wayward sports fans desperately searching for something to watch on their Sunday afternoons come Fall 2011.


The window is short, and it's debatable how much effort MLS should put into trying to leverage the NFL's potential lockout. It would take money and resources to produce a campaign to draw in disillusioned and aimless NFL fans, and there's no guarantee that it would have any effect or that the cost could be justified. Still, MLS isn't in a position to let any opportunity pass, and relying on hope and wishes to turn a few football fans into futbol fans would be just that - Letting an opportunity pass.


It's easy for me to say that no NFL in 2011 could be Major League Soccer's gain, and I'm admittedly way out in front of something that is more than a year away. But if you were running MLS, a league that must press every advantage it has to improve its penetration into a crowded sports market, wouldn't you be considering a strategic plan even now?

The issue of immigration and soccer is bouncing around the internet recently; several articles have come out on the issue in regards to the US National Team. I haven't completely wrapped my head around it all, but it's clearly worth talking about; even more so because it seems the anti-immigration lobby are using the squad to illustrate that immigrants are failing to assimilate.

At least, that's what The Wonk tells us, as they explain that an article I linked to previously was actually a backhanded slap at immigration policy. I had no idea, and failed to realize that the source of the piece, the Center for Immigration Studies, is actually working to reduce immigration. No matter your opinion on the issue (a political sticky wicket I'm not going to muck up a soccer blog with), it's interesting to see soccer, and specifically the National Team, as a focal point in the debate.

• The new American owner of Italian club Bari has high hopes for Serie A; how an American, Italy's first foreign owner, will fit in there will be an interesting saga to watch. Bari is new promoted, so there shouldn't be the same pitfalls that American owners in England have encountered after taking over massive clubs. Italy has never been a place that Americans go, which is why Livorno's interest in two (Donovan and Clark), and Milan's signing of Oguchi Onyewu this summer was intriguing. With an American owner in Italy, it's possible we'll see more names linked with Serie A.

• Someone has a solution to the chronic controversy of the amount of added time Manchester United gets at Old Trafford; follow the example of American football. I love when Americans do this, because while there's validity to the suggestion, they often fail to appreciate how resistant to change sports communities typically are. It's why goal line technology is still not in place, why there's no pitch clock in Major League Baseball, and why angst-ridden discussion follows all of those issues. Eventually changes do come, as we're seeing with the end-line official experiment in the Europa league, but I can't imagine significant changes with timekeeping are ever going to be seriously considered.

• Finally, if you're a soccer player, you live in Boston, and you want to be in a movie, here's your chance (oh, but you have to look "ethnic"). I can't imagine that soccer will be a major part of a movie about a career thief being chased by an FBI agent in Boston, but you never know.

It turns out that HVS, a sports and entertainment consulting firm, put a nice little presentation on MLS finances together for the Portland 2011 bid. There are some interesting tidbits in there, and I thought I'd share a few that interested me.

Stadium Revenue
Total projected stadium revenue is less than $15 million; now, I'm sure that's a conservative estimate, but it seems shockingly low. Of course, I'm certainly jaded by the type of money made in big time American sports.

Ticket Price
Portland's projected average ticket price is $33.65, significantly higher than the 2007 league average (cited in the presentation) of $22.47. Not sure if that really means anything, just an interesting note.

Chivas Season Tickets
If you needed more evidence that Chivas is the most poorly marketed team in the league, here's a kicker for you: in both 2007 and 2008, season tickets sales for Chivas USA were less than 900. Wow. They need to do something out there, and I think re-branding the club would be a good start. That, or move them (St. Louis?).

Kansas City Season Tickets
Unlike Chivas, the Wizards seem to be making progress. While the number of season tickets sold for Kansas City is second worst in the league, they saw a 232% percent increase between 2007 and 2008. Pretty damned impressive, and certain to rise again when the team moves into their new digs in a couple of years.

Portland's Projected Ticket Sales
Now, I don't know a thing about sports venue consulting, but it just seems odd that HVS would assume a decline in total tickets sold from 2011 to 2015. Isn't the goal to make the team more popular, thereby increasing ticket sales? I guess that's just part of the overly conservative outlook these type of things have to take when it comes to public financing issues. Oh, and if Portland is averaging less than 12,000 in 2015, I think it would be safe to say at that point that giving them a team was a bad idea. Not going to happen, of course. I have faith in the soccer fans out there.

TFC Fans Like Their Beer
The report says that Toronto fans spent more on average than an other team in the league, at a rate of $11.00 per game (I'm assuming that's USD). Think they were spending that $11.00 on hot dogs and nachos? I doubt it. If TFC charged for bathroom access, they could probably bring in another couple mill a year.

Both Kinds of Football at PGE Park
Listed as a source of "other event" income in the report is Portland State football. Now, I guess it would be naive to think that the renovated PGE Park would be used for nothing but Timbers games, but I was certainly unaware of Portland State playing their other kind of football there. High school games? Fine. Concerts? If you must. College football? No thanks. Guess you just have to take the good with the bad. Maybe we'll never be able to separate soccer in this country from American football, no matter how many soccer-specific stadiums we build.

I was made aware of the report by Footiebusiness, and you can read the original report in .pdf form here.

or, Where's the Scoring? A Response
or, Goals Are Overrated
or, The American Double Standard
or, If You Score It, They Will (Supposedly) Come

You know that old argument that soccer doesn't appeal to Americans because there isn't enough scoring? Well, I'm sure you don't need me to tell you that it's crap; but just in case there are a few non-soccer people who might wander by here accidentally, or if you happen to need a few responses the next time a soccer-hating (or dismissing) friend of yours comments that the game is "boring", I thought I would lay out a few of my thoughts on the matter.

The impetus for this post was Fulham and Arsenal's entertaining 0-0 draw yesterday, an end-to-end match filled with chances for both sides. Despite the lack of goals, the game never failed to engage me. After checking with a few knowledgeable parties (hi Twitter friends!) just to be sure that I wasn't the only one who found it enjoyable, the thought hit me: this match is the perfect example of why the "not enough scoring" argument is less viable than one might think.

Now, as a soccer junkie, I'm admittedly biased. While the game held enormous entertainment value for me, perhaps I'm jumping to conclusions by saying that Americans are shortsighted in their position on scoring in soccer. Let's take a step back and look at the sports that Americans hold most dear: baseball and American football.

Baseball glorifies the pitcher's duel, the shutout, and the no-hitter. While home runs are seen as crowd-pleasers, tradition loves "small ball", sacrificing, and hitting behind the runner. One hundred forty plus years of history have made baseball an American institution; hence, for the Americans indoctrinated with the sport, the total scoring in a game is independent of its entertainment value, something as true today as it was during the Dead Ball Era, or the pitching dominated 60's. Even today, "Web Gems" are a celebrated part of every game, with today's modern athletes making defensive plays that amaze fans every night. Home runs, and scoring overall, has trended downward in recent years thanks to the fallout from the steroids scandals still affecting the game, yet attendances and television ratings have gone up, and revenues are higher than ever before. Runs scored matter less to fans than fantastic performances or victories by their favorite team.

Football glorifies the impenetrable defense, the tough-as-nails linebacker, and the defensive struggle. While high-octane offense is a crowd-pleaser, tradition loves ball-control, time-of-possession, and winning the field-position battle. Ninety years of history have made football the foremost American passion; hence, for Americans indoctrinated with the sport, the total scoring in a game is independent of its entertainment value, something as true today as it was during the era of the Doomsday Defense and the Steel Curtain. Even today, stingy defense is a celebrated part of the game, with a Super Bowl champion known more for defense than for scoring points. Even if scoring dropped thirty percent in a single season, football would still reign as the king of American sports; points matter less to fans than a competitive game or victories by their favorite team.

As modern sports fans, we're told so often that points make the game that we've forgotten that beauty is in the eye of the beholder. Passionate football fans love a classic defensive struggle, with two teams battling it out to a 7-3 result. Baseball fans are often entranced by a pitchers duel, with two dominant hurlers shutting down the opposing team's hitters one after the other. Every sport has its stinkers, boring games with no scoring and little intriguing action, a situation that has nothing to do with scoring and everything to do with the individual teams.

Chances in soccer can often be just as exciting as actual goals. Keeper saves, missed sitters, balls that hit off the goal frame: all of these add to the entertainment value of a soccer match. It's this nuance of the game (although I almost hesitate to call such an obvious thing a nuance) to which most Americans seem oblivious; argue with them that an American football game is boring without touchdowns, and they'd likely point out big hits, sacks, fumbles, and a litany of other events that have little to do with actual scoring. The same can be said for baseball, where situational tension, rather than any actual action, adds significantly to the level of excitement.

Conclusion? The scoring argument is crap, but more specifically, Americans are simply using it as a cop-out, a way to denigrate soccer by pointing out what seems to be an obvious "flaw".

This went way longer than I intended, and the format is not what I originally planned; I may try to present a challenge-response version of these points sometime in the future. I also wanted to work in actual statistics, but that's not really my point. Needless to say, the differences in "scoring events" for the sports I'm comparing here (using only touchdowns for football) aren't as big as you might think.