Last week's action in MLS featured quite possibly the most unpredictable group of games all season. Philly over Houston? What's happened to Seattle? Or New York? The plot thickens for those lurking mid-table, as we are only one-third of the way through the season. There are 50 maximum points available this week. Here are my picks for Week Eleven:

New York Red Bulls - 2
Houston Dynamo - 1

San Jose Earthquakes - 1
Columbus Crew - 1

Toronto FC - 2
Kansas City Wizards - 1

New York Red Bulls - 2
Chivas USA - 2

DC United - 0
Real Salt Lake - 2

Los Angeles Galaxy - 2
Houston Dynamo - 1

FC Dallas - 2
San Jose Earthquakes - 1

Chicago Fire - 2
Philadelphia Union - 0

Colorado Rapids - 1
Columbus Crew - 0

Seattle Sounders FC - 2
New England Revolution - 0


Close-up of number 9

If you're counting, and you probably are, the World Cup is now less than ten days away. Single digits on the giant hand-operated flip board we all hold in our minds means things are getting really, really real; if you have a vested rooting interest, your nerves are likely headed rapidly towards "shot" status, your mind is conceiving of every possible result for your team, and your nights are filled with glorious dreaming moments of goal-inspired exultation.


If you're just a general unattached fan, anxious for the month-long soccer party to commence for no other reason than that it's the World Cup for pete's sake (perhaps you're Canadian, for example), your footy molecules are vibrating, your attention for anything non-soccer is short, and all the anticipation built up over the past four years is ready to explode.


Which means, for many in both camps, that World Cup madness is taking hold. People are losing themselves in minutiae, obsessing over things like tactics and form, and squeezing every possible drop out of any topic somewhat related to what will happen in South Africa beginning on the 11th. Hucksters are pitching products with the gusto of Viking berserkers. Blogs are launching special coverage, new designs, clever World Cup-themed series and more lists than you can shake a stick at. Stories and opinion pieces are flooding the soccer corner of the web, ranging from the ridiculous to the sublime. It all makes the typical European silly season look rather pedestrian.


The American flavor of this madness is an interesting one. Our passionate and widespread soccer-loving culture is only now beginning to coalesce after years of living on the fringiest of the fringe. "Community" has no real historical meaning in terms of the U.S. National Team; it's a new(ish) concept, and one that has taken shape almost wholly in the digital age. This means the madness spreads rapidly and virally, through anonymous, semi-anonymous, and almost always faceless communication. Instead of a like-minded friend at the bar lamenting that the U.S. back line is a disaster waiting to happen, it's the guy you follow on Twitter whom you've never met, the blogger living three thousand miles away you just became aware a few weeks ago, or the commenter on said blog posting under the pseudonym "USASucks245".


It's enough to drive anyone mad, World Cup looming or not.


What does it mean exactly, that America's collective fandom lacks significant analog roots? Is it good, bad, or none of the above?


This is eye-of-the-beholder stuff. Instantaneous communication has allowed physically isolated pockets of fans to connect in ways not possible before. The result is an accelerated growth and strengthening of the community, with the Internet serving as a digital replacement for the bars, pubs, and similar gathering places that helped solidify bases of support of other nations around the world.


With madness extending its insidious (or should that be intoxicating) web across soccer fans American and otherwise, individual and rational thought will wave a brief goodbye. Thirty days of pure lunacy approaches, and the descent has clearly begun.


Kick the tires and light the fires, nine days until the World Cup!



I don't usually post press releases and the like, but this is too cool not to highlight.


ESPN will be all-soccer all-the-time between 10 AM ET on Thursday, June 10th and the conclusion of the South Africa v. Mexico opening match from South Africa. Even Mike and Mike, the morning radio show that is only occasionally bearable, will have soccer as a major part of their broadcast.


***


ESPN will kick off its month long coverage of the 2010 FIFA World Cup with a 24-hour soccer-themed “Countdown to Kickoff” programming block on ESPN2 beginning Thursday, June 10 at 10 a.m. ET, and concluding Friday, June 11 at 10 a.m. The “24-Hour Countdown to Kickoff” will lead into ESPN’s live presentation of the 2010 FIFA World Cup opening match – host nation South Africa vs. Mexico – Friday, June 11 at 9:30 a.m. from Soccer City Stadium in Johannesburg.world-cup-2010-logo

“ESPN is committed to providing the most comprehensive 2010 FIFA World Cup coverage, and this collection of soccer-themed programs over a 24-hour span in advance of the opening match will help build the excitement for this historic event and give fans a glimpse of what to expect from South Africa during the month ahead,” said Scott Guglielmino, vice president, ESPN programming and acquisitions.

Six hours (10 a.m. – 5 p.m. ET) of daytime programming from South Africa – including three hours of live World Cup preview show (10 a.m. – 1 p.m.) and three hours of the “World Cup Kick-off Celebration Concert” (2 – 5 p.m.) – will anchor the Countdown. Additional programming will include the DC United at Seattle Sounders FC MLS Game of the Week (10 p.m.), the final match before Major League Soccer’s first in-season break for the FIFA World Cup. Also, ESPN Radio’s Mike & Mike in the Morning (simulcast on ESPN2, 6-10 a.m.) on June 11 will focus on South Africa 2010 with guests and tournament previews. Other highlights:



2010 FIFA World Cup Preview Special (10 a.m. – 1 p.m.):

Chris Fowler, Bob Ley and Mike Tirico will host a three-hour live preview of South Africa 2010 from ESPN’s studio location inside the International Broadcast Center (IBC) overlooking Soccer City in Johannesburg. The program will feature all of ESPN’s FIFA World Cup studio analysts: Shaun Bartlett, Ruud Gullit, Jürgen Klinsmann, Alexi Lalas and Roberto Martinez. Other elements:

* Reports from ESPN correspondents covering team camps – Jeremy Schaap (U.S.), Darrell Currie (England), Andrew Orsatti (Australia), John Sutcliffe (Mexico), and Dan Williams (South Africa);
* Human interest correspondent Sal Masekela and general assignment reporters Julie Foudy, Allen Hopkins and Rob Stone will offer features and their perspective on the tournament;
* Comprehensive previews of all eight FIFA World Cup groups;
* A look at South Africa and how the nation is addressing the challenges of hosting the World Cup.



2010 FIFA World Cup Team USA Preview Special (1-2 p.m.):

A one-hour preview focusing on the U.S. Men’s Soccer National Team, highlighting the squad’s strengths, weaknesses, challenges and opportunities as the team enters its fifth straight FIFA World Cup. The live program will examine the chances for success in South Africa 2010 and preview the highly-anticipated opening round match against England. Additional highlights include player profiles and interviews, and a SportsCenter “Sunday Conversation” with Landon Donovan.



FIFA World Cup Kick-Off Celebration Concert (2-5 p.m.):

Sal Masekela, ESPN’s 2010 FIFA World Cup human interest reporter and co-host of The Daily 10 on E!, will host ESPN2’s presentation of the three-hour Kick-Off Celebration Concert in Soweto/Johannesburg, featuring Alicia Keys, the Black Eyed Peas, John Legend and Shakira and popular African artists, such as Angélique, Hugh Masekela, Juanes, K’Naan, Lira, and more. For more information, click here.



SportsNation – 2010 FIFA World Cup Special (5-6 p.m.):

The popular, interactive ESPN2 program co-hosted by Colin Cowherd and Michelle Beadle will feature a FIFA World Cup-themed special. During the show, the “World Cup Dunk Tank” will make its debut, the “Pop Culture” segment will be themed to World Cup, and there will be a special segment featuring Beadle and U.S. Men’s National Team striker Jozy Altidore.

Other highlights of the 24-hour Countdown to Kickoff:

* Outside the Lines – Robben Island: A Greater Goal (6 p.m.): In this special OTL, Chris Connelly reports on how the political prisoners of Robben Island created a soccer league and learned how they could forge a free and peaceful South Africa, the country that is now on the eve of hosting the world’s greatest sporting spectacle. To preview the story, click here.
* E:60 (6:30 p.m.): Jeremy Schaap offers an in-depth profile of U.S. Men’s National Team star and Fulham FC player Clint Dempsey, while Lisa Salters offers a heart-wrenching story about the Haiti U-17 Women’s National Team in the aftermath of the country’s devastating earthquake.
* Homecoming with Rick Reilly: Landon Donovan (June 11: 2:30 a.m.): Before his third consecutive FIFA World Cup appearance, Landon Donovan returned to Redlands, Calif., April 19 as host Rick Reilly and more than 1,500 cheering fans packed the high school gym of the star of the U.S. National Team. The special includes interviews with Donovan’s mother (Donna), father (Tim), twin sister (Tristan) and older brother (Joshua). Others in attendance include Donovan’s former U.S. National Team and current L.A. Galaxy head coach Bruce Arena, current U.S. coach Bob Bradley, his former MLS coach Frank Yallop, and his U.S. U-17 National Team coach John Ellinger, who coached Donovan in the 1999 FIFA U-17 Youth Championship. Galaxy teammate Chris Klein also shares some of his favorite moments with Donovan.
* The 2006 World Cup Film – The Grand Finale (June 11: 3:30 a.m.): Actor Pierce Brosnan narrates the key action from the quarterfinals through the title match of the 2006 FIFA World Cup in Germany. Highlights of the documentary include pre and post-match interviews with the players and never-before-seen footage.



The schedule:




ESPN Inc.’s 2010 FIFA World Cup Coverage in the United States

South Africa 2010 will be ESPN’s seventh FIFA World Cup and coverage of the event promises to be the most comprehensive in company history. ESPN, ESPN2 and ABC will air all 64 matches live and in high definition. ESPN3.com, ESPN’s signature broadband network available in more than 50 million homes, will feature live English-language simulcasts of matches on ESPN and ESPN2. ESPN 3D will feature 25 matches. ESPN Mobile TV will show all matches. ESPN Deportes, the Spanish-language all sports network, will air more than 50 matches in Portuguese live in the U.S., and ESPN Radio will broadcast all 64 matches.

Additionally, ESPN will present 2010 FIFA World Cup television studio programming from site in South Africa, offering U.S. sports fans the most comprehensive news and information coverage throughout the month-long soccer showcase. Studio coverage of the quadrennial global event will include SportsCenter segments, a nightly World Cup Live program, and prematch, halftime and postmatch shows, with additional studio programming and World Cup-branded segments, totaling more than 65 hours of coverage, originating from two sets in and around Johannesburg.





B-Mac 89
Ben Aranda 86
Julius 71
Jason Davis 68
Jason Kuenle 63
Ross Hopper 55
thedoe 52
Alex Will 51
Matt (NES) 51
John Carlton 45
CVO 44
mrburito2 40
Wes Mills 39
Martek 32
WV Hooligan 32
Amerisnob 21
Travis 17
PatrickMKennedy 15
Crocken 12
Hazemeyer 10
J6pini 10
tedmeyer 6


| edit post

ESPN the Magazine, that is.


They needed an angle, a World Cup story to pull in the casual American fan. Stories about the Yanks and their stars are trite and overdone (apparently), and the team needed something edgy, controversial.


What better than a profile of the young New Jersey-born star who spurned the country of his birth for the nation of his parents?


The story, and Giuseppe Rossi's agreeing to be the focus of an ESPN the Magazine cover piece, are not in and of themselves the problem. Many American had probably never heard of Rossi, and a story on his decision to leave American for Italy and a dream of playing for the Azurri is interesting and provocative on its own. ESPN didn't screw up by sending Jeff Bradley (brother of National Team head coach Bob, by the way) to do the story; they screwed up by choosing to drape the story in World Cup imagery while backhanding American soccer across the face in the process.


Read the tagline on the cover. ESPN went wading in dangerous waters, not only in an effort grab their readership by the balls and lead along them rather than walk them down the story's natural path, but also because Rossi was never a lock to make the Italian team.


So we don't feel too bad for them today, considering the rather blatant shot they took at U.S. National Team fans and American chances. Whether the line was true or not doesn't really matter; ESPN's tact was questionable at best. If U.S. fans were ever going to get over Rossi's "betrayal" (not my word), it was going to take some time; it's unfortunate then that ESPN extended the process by reopening the wound so dramatically.


I say get over it. ESPN didn't help my cause.


Turkey v United States

A undeniably true fact: If Charlie Davies hadn't been injured in that terrible car crash last October, Robbie Findley is not only not in the U.S. World Cup squad, he might not have even landed in Bob Bradley's fairly wide American talent net.


The loss of Davies created a speedy striker-sized hole in the American team, and Bradley decided early on that Findley was the best approximation of Davies available. Findley has shown flashes at the MLS level of turning into something special, and hell, Davies burst onto the scene as if our of nowhere in 2009, why couldn't Findley do the same?


But Findley struggled in his USMNT appearances for the most part, always seemingly in over his head in the international game. His speed is only useful if knows what he's doing with it; bad touches and bad decisions appeared to doom him and his World Cup chances. Few (if any) gave him a shot of "making the plane", as they say.


Shock of all shocks then when Findley made the World Cup squad over veteran Brian Ching. Bradley's desperate need for a speed option was truly in evidence now, with Findley not even playing in the warm up friendly against the Czech Republic's "B" team and yet somehow showing up on the final 23-man roster. Was Bradley grasping at straws, or did he see something that the rest of us were simply weren't seeing? How could he view Robbie Findley as anything more than an nice MLS player? Robbie Findley at the World Cup? Really?


Alright, but there was no way Findley would see the field in South Africa. Despite a thin and inexperienced striker pool, Bradley has options; Buddle or Gomez might not be the answer, but Clint Dempsey or Landon Donovan can slide up if needed. Findley will have a nice little vacation, get the experience the pomp and drama of the World Cup, and replicate Brian Ching's playing record from 2006: zero appearances.


Then Saturday changed everything, again. This time the change came from Findley himself, on the field against Turkey, showing the 55,000 in attendance and those watching on television what he could do and why Bradley exhibited so much faith in him. Sure, it was only a half, but at least Findley showed he belonged; in the right circumstance in South Africa, his hellish wheels might be enough to make a difference against a worn down opponent. Either Bradley really knew what he was doing, no matter the doubters (remember when "Findley" was trending on Twitter? - it wasn't because people were happy to see his name), or he got lucky. Flash in the Turkey frying pan or not, Robbie Findley leaped up the perceived depth chart.


And this is where it ends, for now. Robbie Findley the choice of some to be first off the bench at striker, the guy coming into a game against a tired defense, perhaps pressuring them into a critical error or providing the American midfield with additional options they lacked before. Give the opponent a new look at minute sixty-five, see how they cope. A change of pace. Findley showed he's capable, so that level of responsibility seems about right. Speedy supersub.


Because really, no one could have Findley as a projected starter based on one forty-five minute period against a non-World Cup team who may or may not have pulled back on the throttle, right? No way someone who knows the game and covers the team on a regular basis could possibly have a sometimes-starter for an MLS team as the strike partner for Jozy Altidore when the United States faces off against England on June 12th. Absurd. Not possible.


Madness.


Right?


United StatesVS.Spain


As discussed yesterday, the US is growing as a soccer nation. The next question is how do we compare with the world? As the world perception goes, the US is not a current threat to any of the established soccer powers of the world. That perception is held by a number of fans here as well. Project 2010 was mocked when it was released and many today believe that the US is far from being a competitor. But is that perception reality?

The chart below shows a variety of teams in the world. Most were chosen because they are among the best in the world, a few were chosen for regional or World Cup reasons. For each team, the percentage of points taken against teams with ELO rankings in the top 10, ranked 11 through 25, 26 through 50, and over 50 was calculated along with the overall percentage of points won from matches after the 2002 World Cup through February 1, 2010. The final column is the points earned by the country's team, if the team was to play a hypothetical home and away series with every country (including themselves) in the ELO top 75 using the calculated percentages of points earned. This results in 10 games at the 1-10 percentage, 15 games at the 11-25 percentage, and 25 games at both the 26-50 and the 51+ percentage. The order of the table is ranked by these points. Think of it as if the world championship was decided by single table rather than playoff format.


CountryTotal1-1011-2526-5051+Pts
1Spain80.8%79.2%79.6%78.2%83.8%362
2Netherlands71.2%48.3%57.1%80.8%89.3%336
3Brazil69.7%59.6%61.1%76.5%81.8%328
4England68.2%38.1%61.4%75.0%90.0%326
5France70.7%53.7%63.9%61.5%92.7%321
6Argentina65.0%34.9%66.6%73.5%84.4%318
7Germany67.0%33.3%75.4%71.4%78.9%313
8Czech Republic65.1%40.5%47.6%79.2%78.7%304
8Italy66.3%48.3%70.8%58.3%82.3%304
10Portugal66.7%38.3%42.4%62.7%90.0%290
11USA65.6%14.8%55.6%66.7%86.8%289
12Croatia64.7%41.7%51.1%56.7%85.7%285
13Mexico62.5%38.9%53.6%56.2%78.6%274
14Egypt68.4%14.3%63.0%63.6%75.1%273
15Denmark59.1%38.5%44.4%69.7%68.8%271
16Russia59.1%22.8%59.3%46.7%86.5%267
17Cote d'Ivoire65.9%11.1%71.4%48.1%81.6%265
18Switzerland56.3%17.6%59.0%50.0%83.3%264
19Ukraine54.7%18.5%55.6%60.0%70.4%257
20Greece59.1%39.2%48.3%38.1%88.2%256
21Chile52.4%22.2%42.6%51.0%83.3%253
22Japan62.6%15.2%43.1%52.1%79.3%245
23Uruguay50.6%17.6%72.9%54.5%54.0%239
24Australia61.7%20.8%44.4%41.7%76.7%230
24Turkey55.9%17.6%62.1%40.5%68.2%230
26Cameroon59.7%41.7%41.7%35.2%75.2%228
26Colombia48.0%33.3%34.9%54.1%63.6%228
28Sweden50.3%23.3%21.1%53.0%74.4%224
29Paraguay47.7%45.1%31.5%39.6%70.5%221
30Nigeria62.7%44.4%41.7%28.6%74.4%219
31Ghana52.3%25.0%33.3%51.5%59.4%211
32Honduras54.6%0.0%50.0%43.9%62.4%204
33South Korea55.0%27.8%40.7%27.5%70.0%200
34Costa Rica50.0%0.0%17.5%45.3%67.2%185
35Algeria49.8%0.0%46.7%33.3%54.6%174
36Slovenia40.6%20.0%12.8%31.1%63.4%165


As you can see in this analysis, the United States does fairly well, placing 11th behind ten countries recognized as traditional footballing powerhouses. A closer look at the table begins to reveal tiers of countries.

Above 300 points is the top tier, the soccer elite. These nine teams include the only 8 teams to have made a World Cup Championship match in the last 50 years. The only team from this tier not in that list is Spain, who finally broke through their string of underperformances with their Euro 2008 Championship and have been the most dominate team in the world over the last 8 years.

Around 250, there is another break, with only one team between 253 and 239. This second tier contains a number of the teams traditionally viewed as just below the powerhouses. Sides like Portugal, Mexico, Russia, Denmark, and Cote d’Ivoire; having the talent to make a run deep into the World Cup, but not considered threats to win the tournament.

Using 300 and 250 as guideposts, I’ll set a third break more arbitrary break at 200. A break here creates a third and fourth tier. The third tier primarily contains teams that are either growing as a soccer nation; Japan, Australia, Cameroon, Honduras, or have fallen back from being in the second tier; Uruguay, Colombia, Sweden. An analysis done four years previous to this one would likely have put the US in the third tier.

Finally, because of the teams chosen, tier 4 here consists only of a few teams. But these teams represent what tier 4 is, teams traditionally viewed as also rans; these teams have taken 50% or less of the possible points against all competitors during the last eight years.

Aggregating the teams in each tier allows for a further analysis of how the US compares. To do this, I’ve removed the US from tier 2 numbers and averaged the percentages of every team in each tier:


1-1011-2526-5051+
Tier 148.4%64.8%72.7%84.7%
Tier 227.6%53.7%54.8%81.0%
Tier 326.0%43.1%43.5%69.0%
Tier 46.7%25.7%36.6%61.7%
USA14.8%55.6%66.7%86.8%


Comparing the US to the aggregated tiers, a trend becomes obvious. Compared to even the top tier, the US is great at beating lesser teams. This is not just a case of being in CONCACAF, as Mexico’s percentage against the 51+ category is below both the tier 1 and tier 2 aggregates and Honduras is below the tier 3 average. The US is also very good against teams 26 through 50, falling between the aggregates for tier 1 and tier 2, but being much closer to the tier 1 percentage. Moving up to matches against teams 11 through 25, the US is again between tiers 1 and 2, but closer to the tier 2 number.

However, it is clear that the US is not in the range of tiers 1 or 2 when is comes to getting points off of the top ten teams. While the tier 3 number is high due to “giant killers” Paraguay, Nigeria, and Cameroon that all have 1-10 percentages of over 40, removing these outliers only brings the tier 3 average down to 20.1%. This still places the US somewhere between tiers 3 and 4.

This is why the US is not yet taken seriously by the rest of the world and why they are not seen as a threat to win international tournaments. As discussed yesterday, the US has become better against poor competition. Their bottom end numbers have evolved from their tier 3 days, but their top end numbers are well below their current tier 2 peers. The performance against Spain and in the finals of the Confederations Cup may be changing that perception, but more results are necessary for the US to turn the corner against top 10 teams. If they can, there would be little that distinguishes the US from second tier powers like Portugal, Mexico, and Croatia.

But the distribution of results leads to a question: what separates teams like the US, Egypt, and Switzerland who do relatively well against all teams except the top 10 from teams like Nigeria and Cameroon who have a better points percentage against the top 10 than they do against teams 26 through 50? Tomorrow, I’ll lay a groundwork for that analysis.


World Cup Drama!

Tuesday, June 01, 2010 | View Comments
Turkey v United States

As the day (June 12th, duh) draws near, you're likely to see digital mountains of analysis of Bradley's tactics, projected starting lineups, breakdowns position-by-position and matchup-by-matchup (mostly for England, because they come first), and various sundry examinations of all things USMNT. I have a newsreader I use to sort through all of it. Let's just say that it's rather difficult to do so at the moment. The Turkey match spawned an Everest.


Some took Saturday's events as an opportunity to call out Bradley, and American coaches reaching back across a decade plus for that matter, for failing to recognize calm, cool, and collected in midfield. A wave of Torres support is sweeping through the American soccer community, bringing with it a new storyline to the World Cup buildup.


If you felt like it, you could spend your entire work day reading nothing but overwrought assessments of friendlies that ultimately don't matter. Yes, the performances of certain individual players and the team as a collective unit is indicative of something, but by no means does a poor first half against Turkey definitely prove that the U.S. will have their doors blown off by England. On the flip side, a strong second half doesn't necessarily prove the opposite either; thought we're ten days from kickoff, most sides in the tournament have serious questions to answer and kinks to work out.


And the drama will only grow thicker with each passing day. Like a dense fog rolling across the soccer landscape, it's already affecting perspective everywhere while it precipitates nonsense on an unbelievable scale. Even as I write this, England is dragging out a torturous final roster announcement process; I'm probably counting wrong, but it seems to me every member of the squad has been rumored to be both in and out and sometimes simultaneously.


El Tri is thrashing in agony as the dos Santos family takes turns firing shotgun blasts into its green-clad body. Giovani makes it, his brother Jonathan does not. Zizinho, the players' father, rips the Mexican FA and Javier Aquirre, while declaring that Jonathan will never play for Mexico. Giovani, reportedly distraught over his brother's exclusion, is threatening to pull out of the team.


Whoa.


This makes me wonder what the world (meaning my world, meaning America, and meaning everything surrounding the USMNT) might be like should us Yanks ever take to the game in a widespread and uber-passionate way. Would we fall victim to the media-inspired teeth-gnashing of England? Could we ever find ourselves dealing with the telenovela-like internal conflict of Mexico? We've got cultural attachments, and strong ones, to both nations. It's reasonable to think we might be influenced by their way of doing things, even if they're not actually making a conscious choice.


In the grand scheme of things, coverage and support of the U.S. National Team on a meaningful scale is in its honeymoon phase. Most of the coverage is positive. Human interest angles, feel good pieces, and "the sport is growing" stories dominate the landscape. The hopes of a nation don't rest on the shoulders of Donovan, Dempsey, et al even if they might feel a bit more pressure to perform than they used to. I can't help but wonder how we'll handle it (must throw in the obligatory "if") when we reach a point of serious national interest, or when the attitude towards an American World Cup campaign isn't one of scoff if they're bad or mild surprise and momentary interest if they're good.


The American soccer culture is a melting pot of cultures and influences, yet to be cooked down into something clearly identifiable. England and Mexico are part of the recipe, that much is certain. Let's hope the finished brew tastes like neither, but is something uniquely American, both on the field and in everything that surrounds the game.


AmSoc 28 - USA v. Turkey

Monday, May 31, 2010 | View Comments

It's the holiday weekend edition of the American Soccer Show, in which Zach and I cover the U.S. match with Turkey and talk American chances at the World Cup.

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Go to the AmSoc website to listen


Formula XI: Where Are We?

Monday, May 31, 2010 | View Comments
Obama, Biden, And Bill Clinton Pose For Photo With US National Soccer Team

Rankings are an impossible thing. There is no art or science that can take two teams of similar talent and say one is definitively better than the other. But by drawing comparisons to others national teams, by looking at what results are obtained, and by analyzing player pools, a better understanding of the United States’ place in the world of soccer is hopefully obtainable.

The goal of this weeklong series is to look at the strengths and weaknesses of the US team as objectively as possible through comparison with other teams throughout the world. This process will result in a lot of data being thrown your way. I’ve attempted to focus each post on the highlights of the data being presented, though I welcome comments delving deeper into what’s presented.

The Growth of the US Team

Rankings

A logical place to start answering the question of where are we, is to answer the question where have we come from. For some perspective on the situation, rankings are a good place to start. Because FIFA changed their ranking formula in 2006, it’s impossible to use those rankings to obtain a consistent measure for more than this current world cup cycle. That amount of data would be pretty meaningless. However, rankings using a modified version of the ELO rankings used to rank chess players has been consistently applied to every official international soccer match ever played. Charting the US ELO rankings from their reappearance in the World Cup in 1990 to the end of 2009 looks like this:


I’ve added an exponential best fit trend line to show the approximate path that the US has taken in the last two decades. As you can see, there is a definite up trend though there are periods of success relative to the trend line (mid 91 - mid 93, mid 95 - mid 97, and mid 99 - mid 06) and periods of underperforming the trend line.

Another way to look at this data is by the amount of time each year that the team was above plateau markers. The table below starts in 1995 (the first year that the US cracked the ELO top 30).

Percentage of Days at or above ELO Plateau Numbers (1995-2009)
Top 30Top 25Top 20Top 15Top 10
199547%0%0%0%0%
199672%0%0%0%0%
19970%0%0%0%0%
199821%1%0%0%0%
199949%42%41%0%0%
2000100%100%69%0%0%
2001100%68%34%7%0%
2002100%92%18%2%0%
2003100%100%100%0%0%
2004100%100%92%29%0%
2005100%100%100%57%0%
2006100%47%47%40%0%
200785%46%40%4%0%
2008100%82%74%10%0%
2009100%100%99%63%5%

As you can see, besides the slip endured by sending a “B” team to Copa America, the US has been consistently a top 30 side since 2000. 2003 through 2005 can make a strong claim as the best run of form that the US has ever had with a three year run almost entirely in the top 20. However, by the rankings, the most successful single year belongs to 2009, when the team first cracked the top 10 and had the highest percentage of days in the top 15.

Qualification

USA team 2005

Another logical place to look at the progress of the national team is the cyclic World Cup qualifying process. The CONCACAF qualifying process of three group semifinals and the “hex” finals began for the qualifying for the 1998 World Cup. In the four qualifying cycles, the US has dropped the following number of points compared to the 48 possible points in each cycle; 1998 – 17, 2002 – 20, 2006 – 14, 2010 – 13. The total of these points dropped is 64 points. 57 of those 64 points have been in at least one of the following categories: 1) away to Mexico or Costa Rica or 2) to teams with an ELO ranking worse than 50.* Significant trends exist for both of these categories.

Any serious US fan knows about the constant struggles of the US at Azteca and Saprissa. For the US to turn the corner and really be a world powerhouse, those are games that the US will eventually need to get some points from, but a consistent inability to win in those places tells us little about how the US has improved over time. The other category however, shows a more usable and positive trend:

US Games Versus ELO 51+ teams in World Cup Qualifying Cycles
CycleWinsDrawsLoses% of Points Taken
199864261%
200254163%
200684078%
201081183%

As was shown with the US’ ELO rankings, compared to previous US teams, there is a trend showing continual improvement by the national team. While this data shows that the US is getting better compared to itself, how the US compares with other nations around the world will be the focus of the next installment.

* The other 7 dropped points cannot be categorized in a way creates enough observation to undertake statistically significant analysis.


Relative Strengths

Friday, May 28, 2010 | View Comments
Czech Republic v United States


With the 23 now selected, the focus moves to who the US will be starting come June 12. While there are questions about the fitness of several key players for the US, there are a few players who are locks to start if healthy; Howard, Onyewu, Bradley, Donovan, Dempsey, and Altidore. Donovan’s and Dempsey’s ability to play multiple positions makes it hard to set them in the lineup, but the positions for the other four are obvious.


This leaves a few positional battles in the starting lineup. Each option has his own strengths and weaknesses. Bob’s ability to match his lineup’s strengths against that of his opponent’s while hiding the weaknesses of those players will determine the success of this team in the World Cup. I would expect to see slight tactical differences throughout the final warm-ups and the tournament itself to exploit these players’ strengths.


I’ll start with the one positional battle where the competitors are so similar that there is virtually no difference. If healthy, either Bocanegra or DeMerit will line up next to a healthy Onyewu. Both are defensive leaders, both are good in the air, both are a little slow. Because of his role as captain, Bocanegra will be on the field, but whether that is as a center back or a left back remains to be seen. If he’s shifted wide or Onyewu is incapable of going, DeMerit will be there. This is a positional battle that will be decided by tactical decision elsewhere on the field or by injuries, not because the players bring a different skill set.


Left Back

The position that will help determine Gooch’s partner is left back. Here there are differences that can be exploited:

Bocanegra – better positional awareness; better leadership

Bornstein – faster; better going forward

Spector – field knowledge of Premier League right wingers

Of the three options, Bocanegra offers the best defensive and leadership option. Some of Spector’s offensive ability is lost by moving him to the left, but his knowledge of the English players in particular may be exploited June 12. Bornstein provides the best option going forward on this side, but is the worst of the three options defensively. Against a mediocre offense or with appropriate help, Bornstein can be the most effective choice.


Right Back

Another position affected by the choice at left back, Spector moving to that side, makes Cherundolo the obvious pick. However, beyond that there are still differences:

Cherundolo – veteran leadership; better positioning (offensively and defensively)

Spector – better long ball; better crosser

Depending on the composition of the rest of the backline, Cherundolo’s experience may trump Spector’s potential. If injuries result in Goodson and Bornstein being in the lineup together, having another veteran presence would be a must. However, in a purely counterattacking formation, Spector’s ability to deliver the long ball could outweigh Cherundolo's experience.


Defensive Midfielder

This is the one position where it doesn’t matter what shuffling goes on around it, the analysis will remain the same:

Clark – Stays at home more often; more time paired with Bradley

Edu – Gets forward more often; more fluid on the ball; picks up garbage goals

If Edu’s description sounds like it also applies to Michael Bradley, it’s because it does. Because of this similarity in style (though Edu is a destroyer rather than disruptor, like Bradley), some of Edu’s advantage over Clark is lost when paired with the coach’s son. Also, with the limited mobility of the starting center backs (even more so with their injuries), a defensive midfielder who stays at home may be preferred. But, whoever doesn’t start will play an important role because neither of the two are fit enough to play the position as the formation demands for three full games.


Side Midfielder

This may be the most complicated position, because its options allows Bob to mask weaknesses in the other areas. Donovan will almost assuredly line up in one of these two slots, the other is a big question mark:

Beasley – bigger scoring threat (than Holden); tracks back well defensively

Dempsey – best all around

Holden – better creator; better crosser (than Beasley)

If Dempsey doesn’t move up top, he’s the obvious starter. If he does move, then tactics becomes involved. Does the lineup need more defense, more creativity, or more goal scoring? The two left mid options of Donovan and Beasley both provide necessary defensive cover for whoever is playing left back. But forcing Donovan to track back as much as is necessary on the left limits his offensive potential. Moving him to the right relieves some of that pressure (see the amount of defensive work done by Dempsey compared to Donovan in the Confederation Cup). The other side of the equation is balancing creating chances versus scoring goals. By pairing Altidore and Dempsey, there are two players up top very capable of providing assists. Adding Donovan and Bradley, there may be more providing than finishing on the field. In this case, Beasley skill set is a better fit. However, Beasley is probably not fit enough to play 90, which would necessitate bringing in Holden and switching Donovan to the left for the last 20 to 30 minutes. If this move is coupled with fresh legs up top, Holden’s crossing ability becomes lethal.


Striker

Finally, there’s striker. The three options each bring a special skill set:

Buddle – Donovan knows his positioning well; physical presence; best holder

Findley – speed, speed, and more speed

Gomez – excellent scoring record as a sub

If Altidore and Dempsey are the starters, any sub will be situational. Buddle, to slow the game down with a lead while having the scoring ability to extend a lead; Gomez, as supersub if a goal is needed; and Findley, if his speed can be exploited. If Dempsey stays in the midfield, the most likely compliment to Altidore is Findley. With Findley’s speed and Altidore’s strength as weapons in a war of attrition against the opponent. By moving Dempsey up top and bringing in Gomez during the final 30 minutes of the game, Bob would attempt to exploit a worn down backline. While this would be the ugliest way for the US to play, if the US backline can hold, it would probably be effective.


Beginning tomorrow, we’ll begin to see what Bob is thinking about tactics. Different opponents will call for different skill sets. What weaknesses show themselves tomorrow and what changes can be made to cover them will go a long way toward telling us what to expect in June.


Members of the U.S. men's national soccer team stand on a makeshift soccer field as the team is officially announced at the ESPN headquarters in Bristol

I'm headed up to Philly tomorrow to take in the last domestic warm up match before the US National Team boards a plane with our hopes and dreams shoved firmly in their pockets. I'll be going as a fan, which means my insight will be that of a fan; the experience of cheering on your team in person will never really allow for in-depth breakdowns of individual performances and tactics, but it might provide a grander sense of how the team plays as a whole.


Which is why I'm glad that this is the game I'm able to make, that Bradley has announced his intention to put a team that will be as close to his first choice lineup as is possible, and that I'll be in the stadium to see them play together. Of course I'll be closely watching Onyewu, looking for any lingering vision issues with DeMerit, anxiously assessing the play of whichever forward Bradley sends out, etc., etc.; all of that behavior is the price I pay for writing a blog, the kind of thing I can't avoid even if I wanted to.


But I know that I'll also be distracted. It will be nearly impossible to properly track the game in a way that would result in any meaningful conclusions beyond the most general. Maybe I'll record it at home and review it later. Maybe not.


Either way, I'm going to enjoy being a fan tomorrow. I can't make it to South Africa, so this is as close as I'm going to get to seeing World Cup soccer.


Although I'm sure they won't agree it's warranted, the excitement I'm feeling today and the experience I hope to have tomorrow makes me pity those in the blogging world that choose to set themselves apart as unbiased analysts of the sport (not the pros though; they get paid, which trumps missing out on the fan experience). It's their chosen path, sure, but by removing themselves from the passionate aspects of soccer they've forsaking a major component of appreciating the sport. It can make people callous and cynical, because they lose (or never had) the ability to see things from a fan's perspective. Even the most irrational among us gets to enjoy the game in a way those analysts never can, and though it's difficult to place a value on experience because it is so personal from individual to individual, I can't help but think they're missing out on something big.


Still, they're a needed part of the ever-evolving fabric of American soccer, and so I should probably just shut up now.


I digress. Philly here I come.


If you'll be in Philly as well, drop me a line somehow, maybe we can meet up for a beer or just to shake hands.


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