The MLS playoff picture is taking a different shape than expected.


Let's flash back to around the midway point of the season. Back then the Galaxy were running away with the league, almost ten points ahead of the rest of the pack (although they were already slowing down). FC Dallas had recovered from their early season funk, but looked like a borderline playoff squad. Toronto looked to be in a good spot for the playoffs, while Seattle looked to be out.

Philadelphia - 2
Kansas City - 1

Chicago - 1
Los Angeles -1

D.C. United - 0
Columbus - 2

New England - 1
Seattle - 2

FC Dallas - 2
Toronto FC - 1

Colorado - 1
Chivas USA - 0

Real Salt Lake - 2
New York - 2

Houston - 1
San Jose - 1

The USA is bidding for the 2018 or 2022 World Cups, the two tournaments up for grabs this December. The FIFA inspection team is set to arrive next week to tour the proposed facilities, and though there's a sense the American bid has little chance of getting the 2018 tourney, the committee has yet to remove themselves from consideration.

Around the web, though not on this site, there has been a lot of consternation over the proposed change to CONCACAF qualifying. Most of this has centered around the probable loss of the home-and-home between the US and Mexico, though some has extended well beyond that. The changes have ramifications for nearly every soccer federation in CONCACAF. Viewing the effects of these changes in their entirety paints a different picture than the quick-draw initial judgments likely created. Different countries will be affected in different ways. Countries are group by similar effect from the bottom of the CONCACAF world to the top.

Tier 11
Teams (3): Monserrat, Anguilla, US Virgin Islands
Average FIFA Rank: 200
Matches played under old system: 2
Matches played under new system: 2
Likely FIFA ranking* under new system: 200

Tier 10
Teams (3): Aruba, British Virgin Islands, St. Lucia
Average FIFA Rank: 190
Matches under old system: 2
Matches under new system: 8
Likely FIFA ranking under new system: 170

Tier 9
Teams (5): Dominican Republic, Turks and Caicos Islands, Belize, Dominica, Bahamas
Average FIFA Rank: 180
Matches under old system: 2
Matches under new system: 6
Likely FIFA ranking under new system: 170

Tier 8
Teams (8): Cayman Islands, Puerto Rico, Netherlands Antilles, Nicaragua, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, Bermuda, St. Kitts and Nevis, Grenada
Average FIFA Rank: 160
Matches under old system: 4
Matches under new system: 6
Likely FIFA ranking under new system: 150

Tier 7
Teams (4): Haiti, Antigua and Barbuda, Barbados, Suriname
Average FIFA Rank: 130
Matches under old system: 4
Matches under new system: 12
Likely FIFA ranking under new system: 120

Tier 6
Teams (3): Guyana, Guatemala, Cuba
Average FIFA Rank: 120
Matches under old system: 8
Matches under new system: 12
Likely FIFA ranking under new system: 110

Tier 5
Teams (1): Canada
Average FIFA Rank: 100
Matches under old system: 8
Matches under new system: 12
Likely FIFA ranking under new system: 85


Tier 4
Teams (2): Panama, Jamaica
Average FIFA Rank: 85
Matches under old system: 8
Matches under new system: 18
Likely FIFA ranking under new system: 75

Tier 3
Teams (2): El Salvador, Trinidad and Tobago
Average FIFA Rank: 80
Matches under old system: 18
Matches under new system: 18
Likely FIFA ranking under new system: 75

Tier 2
Teams (2): Costa Rica, Honduras
Average FIFA Rank: 50
Matches under old system: 18
Matches under new system: 18
Likely FIFA ranking under new system: 50

Tier 1
Teams (2): USA, Mexico
Average FIFA Rank: 20
Matches under old system: 18
Matches under new system: 18
Likely FIFA ranking under new system: 20

The new system funnels its matches and ranking advantages to the middle tiers of teams. Under the new system, tiers three through ten should see an average increase of about 10 spots in the FIFA rankings due to these changes. Those changes are enough to offset the loss of points that the top tiers lose by not playing each other as often.

Canada should get the largest bump with the new system. Because Canada does not play in a qualifier for the Gold Cup, it misses out on points collected by the Central American countries in the Central American Nations Cup and the Caribbean nations in the Caribbean Championship. Beating Aruba in WC qualifying is about equal in points as beating Iceland in a friendly. In fact, it’s worth more points than drawing Spain in a friendly would be. Because Canada’s only realistic chances at the higher multipliers matches come in the Gold Cup and World Cup qualifying, maximizing the number of these games is critical to raising their ranking.

The new system also gives a bit more equality to those nations that will be most important to the growth of CONCACAF. There is a core group of ten countries that have shown some ability to sustain at least decent quality soccer programs; USA, Mexico, Costa Rica, Honduras, El Salvador, T&T, Guatemala, Panama, Jamaica, and Canada. The countries include every country to make the hex round of qualifying, every Gold Cup winner, every confederation Gold Cup runner up, every UNCAF (predecessor to the Central American Cup) winner, and 9 of the last 10 Caribbean Cup winners. By nature of the hex format, four of these countries played less than half the games of the other six. In the new format, likely 8 of these ten teams will play the full 18 matches and the 2 who do not make it will play 4 more matches than they would have under the old system. For these countries, player exposure, gate receipts, and meaningful matches are critical for their development into strong regional competitors.

Another area of group is with tiers seven and eight. Tier seven sees an extreme jump in matches from 4 to 12. Tier eight are teams on the FIFA line of irrelevancy. Under the FIFA ranking formula, a team ranked lower than 150 is given a ranking of 150 for purposes of calculating points. Moving up teams near the 150 line has a positive effect for the entire system. Hopefully, this reduces the number of teams under the 150 mark from around one-half of the confederation to around one-third.

The bulk of the advantages in the new system are targeted at tiers 4 through 8. While there is a short term disadvantage to the preparation of US and Mexico for a World Cup, if the new system can stabilize and grow the middle tiers of CONCACAF the long term advantages outweigh the short term losses. In ten years, a final group of USA, Costa Rica, Jamaica, and Canada has the potential to be a challenging group. If the price of that is the diminishment of the Mexico rivalry, it may be a price worth paying.

* A note on methodology: The “likely FIFA rankings” were calculated by determining the countries current average match score, multiplying that by the number of matches played, subtracting the points from the old system, adding the predicted points from the new system, and dividing by the new number of matches played. The “likely FIFA ranking” is not predictive, but an estimation of what a country’s current FIFA rank would be if the qualification from last cycle had been done in the new format.

Word on the street is that Brian McBride will announce his retirement today after a legendary playing career that saw him excel in MLS with Columbus and Chicago, at Fulham as part of the Fulhamerica era, and with the US National Team over the course of three World Cup cycles.

On the live edition of the American Soccer Show last night, I was joined by AOL Fanhouse soccer writer Brian Straus to talk about four more years of Bob, then took a few Skype calls on the matter to close things out.


If you missed it, don't worry - you can listen to it in this post, download it here, or wait for the show should to be up on iTunes a little later.

When news broke earlier in the week that Sunil Gulati had finally ceased his near teenage girl obsession with Jurgen Klinsmann and finally awarded Bob Bradley the contract extension he deserved, I let forth a fist-pump and an exclamatory “all right!” Following a four year cycle that saw the once caretaker coach lead the U.S. Men’s National Team to a Gold Cup trophy, second place finish in the Confederations Cup, and a round-of-16 match in the World Cup, Bradley met all reasonable expectations thus far in his tenure. Dumping Bradley at this juncture would only undue the progress made under his tutelage and leadership.

With a resolution finally coming on the USMNT head coaching saga, we thought it was time to bring back the live edition of the American Soccer Show.

They make it hard, don't they? Some of us want to support the US Open Cup - the tournament has history, provides the only tangible evidence that the US soccer "pyramid" is actually interconnected, and gives the sport here a knockout competition in-line with what we see in almost every other serious soccer nation. But when the latter rounds, the most serious rounds after MLS clubs treat the early stages as a training exercise, are not broadcast or are placed in an inaccessible time slot, it's easier to just give up and call the thing a lost cause.

A little over a week ago I posted my opinion that FIFA should pass Russia over as a World Cup host due to a racist banner that flew at Lokomotiv Moscow's stadium.  I'll admit that my reaction was visceral, and that I didn't not have a full sense of racism's place in Russian soccer when I wrote it.  One banner in one stadium does not make a pattern, and I did not have evidence of a pervasive racist culture when I flatly stated that Russia shouldn't get a World Cup based on one incident.

DC United's 2010 effectively ended last night.  United fell to Columbus in the semifinals of the US Open Cup in front of 3400 fans at RFK stadium, and while the organization is none too happy with the quality of the referee for the match, their grousing won't change anything.  United will now simply finish out their MLS schedule while understandably looking ahead to 2011.

I recently had the opportunity to sit down and have a chat with a former U-17 international and former member of Real Salt Lake, Jamie Watson. Jamie is currently with Austin in USSF D-2. Here is the transcript of our conversation:


Keith Hickey, Match Fit USA: I was covering the press conference following the Philadelphia/Salt Lake game, and one question kept coming back to me: Is there any soccer coach with better hair than Jason Kreis?

Jamie Watson, Austin Aztex: None. Nor calves. The dude looks like he's got calf implants. I got called tree trunk legs in school and he put mine to shame. He led the best ever rookie initiation I've ever seen or heard of when first year in Portugal. Still one of my favorite nights as a pro to this day.

KH: Go on.

JW: We had like 10 rookies doing rookie trivia he led one night out in Portugal and the stuff he said and came up with, it was hilarious. Or maybe I was really drunk, I don't know. All I know is, a lot of older guys were getting called out in front of everyone and the rookies had to write down who they thought did the embarrassing stuff and say it out loud in front of everyone who they picked did what and it was AWESOME!

KH: According to a recent article by Yanks Abroad, you’re currently with USL-1 side Austin Aztex. Are they aware that Texas isn’t actually abroad?

JW: Hahaha, it must have been a slow day at Yanks Abroad! Arch Bell is a good friend who knew my story so he wanted to tell it and I gave him alot of insight I hadn't given out yet, so I think I got a pass on it with the conidtion when I do go abroad one day, he gets the first article!

KH: In that same article, it says you were living with four other Aztex players. How bad did that place smell?

JW: 2 Scousers from Liverpool, a Geordie from Newcastle and a hispanic guy from Laredo which is the Mexican-American border, basically. Mexico and England would definitely be in the final if there was a Bad Breath World Cup.

KH: Not to mention 5 pro athletes sharing a bathroom. You guys must have gone through Febreeze by the gallon.

JW: The bad part is, none of them knew what that was! And when I'm left to be the house mom doing chores and cleaning responsibility, that's when you know the house is in trouble! I hate that stuff and quit after 5 minutes. It only got clean if a girl was coming over.

KH: Which was a stupider sequel, Boondock Saints 2, or Green Street Hooligans 2?

JW: GSH... Just leave it alone and let the first one be good by itself. Plus, I can't take Elijah Woods seriously as a soccer fan, he looks like his voice would crack the first time he tried cheering!

KH: Favorite soccer video game?

JW: Pro evolution. Don't even try challenging me at that. It's just stupid to do that.

KH: Of all the players you’ve played with professionally, who had the worst taste in music?

JW: I might have to embarrassingly admit it's me. My iPod is full of guilty pleasures and top 40 for days. I am legit terrified to leave my iPod on shuffle in the locker room since I'm the team DJ, because I'm afraid of walking back into the locker room and something awful is playing.

KH: Did you take it personally that RSL took Nik Besagno before you?

JW: No, I knew they were going to. It wasn't a shock to anyone really, everyone knew. I knew I was going #13 at the latest. When I was at the draft and certain teams were up, I was like "please don't take me, please don't take me, I don't wanna live there."

KH: How often do you edit your own Wikipedia entry?

JW: Never. I should edit that picture they have of me on there, it looks ridiculous! I need to go get a few glamor shots done and put one up there.

KH: No offense, you look like Tintin.

JW: That's funny, I was just about to say Tintin is a strinkingly handsome fellow. I've embraced it. Euan holden tagged me with it back in '08 and it's stuck with the fans and I can't shake it now.

KH: When living in Utah, how many people tried to convert you to Mormonism?

JW: I never figured out which older guy sent the missionaries out to my house over and over again but everytime I offered them a beer and said thanks but no thanks and sent them along their way on the bikes!

KH: Your Twitter handle is @JamieWatson22, and yet your squad number is 77. Do you blame Generation Adidas for pulling you of college early and ruining your basic math skills?

JW: I guess they taught basic math second semester second year and I missed out on that! Real answer is I didn't think I was going to even like twitter when I joined in, and so I used my email address as my tag. If I could change it now I would definitely change it to @imnottintinyoujerks

KH: You can change it, you know.

JW: You can?

KH: Yeah. Settings > Account > Username

JW: Wait, let me write that down. I'm an idiot.

KH: Thanks for your time.