Hola there, Italia-Bros and Azzurri-Hos!


It's your boy Gio here, writing my World Cup diary. Now, I signed on to do this last month, when that weak-ass Marcello Lippi and I were tighter than Snooki's tube top, and I was still planning on repping the mother country in the big show down in South Africa. I was all ready to get my hands on that sweet-ass Louis Vitton suitcase they give to the fly pimps who take home the hardware, but Lippi gets all insane in the membrane and drops my ass like a stage 5 clinger with a butterface. I would say I got dropped like it's hot, but your boy is so chill he's reversing that global warming business that uptight hater Al Gore started. Man, I was so stoked for this, you don't even know. You don't even know. The quality of guidette that puts out for a World Cup winner is freaking phenomenal. Still, gotta keep it chill for my Italia peeps. Vamos Azzurri, you dig?

Anyway, after they put this sexy face on the cover of ESPN, like I'm friggin' Mike Piazza or something, I agreed to do this little blog for these haters. And these tight ass weak boys, they said even though I was out of the World Cup, I still had to do it since I spent the money they gave me on jungle juice and some sweet henna tats of the Italian flag. I KNOW, right? Why you gotta mess with Gio's flow? I was so heated, I was gonna go Midwestern on their backsides. I should dial up my cousin Nicky to go loco on their roll-slowing backsides. He works at the Sanitation Department, so you know he's connected, if you feel what I'm saying. Boy looks like the Rock with a blowout and a spray-tan. Still though, I should just bring you Gio's chillness on the regular, and let you in on the GTL that goes down in Bergen. Maybe there's a Match Fit Italia I can write for next time? Cause I swear on my Scarface poster, I'm going to Brazil in 2014. There's more quality backside there than in a J-Lo video featuring Beyonce. No way your boy Gio misses out on that action.

Peace out like a Girl Scout
Gio ♥

Starting today, we're excited to bring you Match Fit Reserve, our new blog-within-a-blog. It's the KFC double-down of blogs, if you will. This content will be in a lighter tone and I hope, funnier than our usual fare of insightful soccer analysis. I'll still do an occasional serious post, and you will still be able to find Jason and the gang's fantastic stuff here, but Match Fit Reserve (follow on twitter!) should be a light-hearted companion to the serious stuff. We hope you enjoy reading it as much as I enjoyed coming up with the ideas.

Times have changed for U.S. Soccer. After the dalliance with German legend and successful World Cup manager Jurgen Klinsmann in 2006, a dance that end with the Federation switching partners at the last minute to Bob Bradley, Sunil Gulati and company clearly have dreams of hiring a high profile international coach.


That, plus a belief in soccer circles that U.S. Soccer is unlikely to hold on to the same coach through two cycles after the poor ending to the Bruce Arena era, has me certain that the 2010 World Cup will be Bob Bradley's one and only go round. There's a small chance that Bradley could build up enough credit with a fantastic showing and have the option to stay in the job; but Bradley, like his predecessor, has eyes on a job abroad, and he appears to have some level of international respect. If he leads the United States to the quarterfinals or beyond in South Africa, it will be him choosing to leave rather than U.S. Soccer pushing him out of the door.


As focused as we are on the tournament that has yet to happen, and as much of a foregone conclusion as Bradley's tenure ending might seem to be, I'm guessing more than a few of us have simply failed to look beyond this summer (which is understandable). Be it Klinsmann, another high-profile foreign manager, or an American like Kinnear or Schmid, we'll probably be talking about a new boss before the year is out.


A look at the possible scenarios, and the likely fallout from each:

U.S. Beat England but fail to advance

Defeating the Three Lions might be a single game high water mark in the modern history of the program, and Bradley would bank some good will. But failing to advance after doing so would sweep all those happy feelings away in a flash. Expectations have been set, and advancing is a must.

Likely Result: Bradley dismissed

U.S. draws or loses to England and fail to advance

Not much difference with this possibility, just less question over if one game might save Bradley's job. Failing to advance, no matter how close the outcomes, is the worst case scenario for Bradley and Co., and there's no reason to believe the ax wouldn't fall quickly should the Americans be coming home early.

Likely Result: Bradley dismissed

U.S. goes out in the Round of 16

Taking the England result out of the equation, be it win, lose, or draw, Bradley falling in the first knockout round might be termed a decent, if ultimately disappointing, showing. It depends on who they face and how it goes, of course, but Bradley doesn't appear to have enough standing to hold on to his job should the Americans come up short of the quarterfinals.

Likely Result: Bradley dismissed (U.S. Soccer "moves on")

U.S. goes out in the quarterfinals

This is the first scenario where there's room for question; after Arena took the Americans to the quarterfinal round in 2002 and failed miserably in 2006, it's hard to imagine U.S. Soccer keeping the coach around, something which would involve expectation of lasting another full cycle. Again, it depends a bit on who they play and the margin of the result; if they lose to a traditional power on penalties for example, Bradley might have the cache to stick around if he'd like. But would he? With the right win (England or Germany maybe), Bradley might be able to land himself a chance in a second-tier league in Europe. Either way, the net result would be the same.

Likely Result: Bradley dismissed/resigns

U.S. advances beyond quarterfinals

Bradley's foreign aspirations would certainly find an outlet if he can push the Americans to their best ever modern showing. Famous scalps would be a guaranteed along the way, adding to his reputation and making him even more attractive to clubs abroad. U.S. Soccer would be certain make an effort to keep him if he managed to shock the world, but Bradley would have no reason not to head off in search of a new challenge.

Likely Result: Bradley resigns, headed for "bigger" things


I can conceive of no outcome that leads to Bob Bradley remaining U.S. National Team head coach post-World Cup, at least for very long. Because Arena lasted as long as he did in the job, American fans may be be conditioned to push aside these possibilities; but whether the Yanks find glory or disaster in South Africa, change is on the horizon.


World Cup 2010 is the culmination of Bob Bradley's tenure of U.S. National Team coach. It's highly doubtful he'll have a second shot.

Disclaimer: This post is exceedingly boring and only necessary because I still live by the rules of my high school math teachers; I show my work. If you have no interest in how I created the statistics that I’ll be analyzing tomorrow, feel free to skip this post and rejoin the series tomorrow. For those of you nerdy or bored enough to read this, thanks.

The first two posts in this series looked at the US’ place in the world, a growing second tier nation that struggles against top tier teams. To delve further than this requires looking at the players that comprise this team and similar teams around the world. As I said in the first post of this series, rankings are an impossible thing. This is doubly true when we move to the thought of rating individual players in a team sport. However, to really understand the current state of US soccer, it is a necessary endeavor.

Because most rating systems of individual players would require either a completely subjective rating or a PhD in mathematics and a QB-rating-like statistical formula, I am opting for a disaggregation-reaggregation concept. The theory behind this rating is that club success is dependent on aggregate individual success. By rating a club on its current successes and assigning the club’s success level to the players responsible for it, a rating for each player can be obtained.

The rating used starts at 10 and works its way down. In this rating, individual clubs are assigned a rating based on their best performance either in international club tournaments or league play. This rating is then assigned to each of the starters and regular subs of the club. Bench players are assigned a rating of two less than the club rating except for those bench players playing on a UEFA Champions League knockout round club. These players are assigned a rating of one less than the club rating.

While there is a level of error introduced by assigning the same rating to every starter on a club, the competitive transfer market in global football keeps this level of error relatively low. Because clubs, unlike national teams, can address positional deficiencies in the open market, the quality difference among the starters should be relatively small. A standout player on a “7” club, will be bought by a “9” or “10” club.

For space and usefulness, I’ve included only the ways for a club to be at least a “6”. The assignment of ratings are the result of way too much of my free time studying international results and player transfers. These ratings are not perfect (an underdog making a deep run in a tournament can overrate its players) and by virtue of the data type the ratings cannot be tested for significance. However, it will allow an analysis of what national teams look like from a “talent” perspective.

Tournaments

The international tournaments offer the best opportunity to judge teams from different countries against each other. The interplay between the UEFA Champions League and the Europa League makes is relatively easy to determine where to break one rating level from another. The other competitions are a little harder to set break points because they are dominated more by individual nations. The best example of this is the Mexican domination of the CONCACAF Champions League. It would be difficult to claim that the quarterfinal losers belong in the same category as the quarterfinal winners. To a lesser extent, CONMEBOL, CAF, and AFC all suffer similar issues. The one thing that the Club World Cup results have shown in the last few years is that UEFA rules the club world, CONMEBOL is comfortably in second, and the top team from the other three confederations are all about equal. Below is a table showing the rankings for clubs in international tournaments.

Rating	UEFA	CONMEBOL	CONCACAF	CAF	AFC
10	CL KO
9	EL KO	CLi QF
8	CL GP4 EL GP	CLi KO CLi GP3 CS SF	CL SF	CL SF	CL SF
7	EL PO	CLi GP4 CLi R1 CS R2	CL QF	CL GP Cup SF	CL KO
6	CL R2 EL R3	CS R1	CL GP	CL R2 Cup GP	CL GP Cup SF

Competition Abbreviations	Round Abbreviations
CL = Champion's League EL = Europa League CLi = Copa Libertadores CS = Copa Sudamericana	SF = Semifinalist QF = Quarterfinalist KO = Knockout Stage Participant GP = Group Stage Participant GPx = x Place in Group (i.e. GP3 = 3rd place in group) PO = Playoff Stage Participant Rx = x Round Participant (i.e. R2 = 2nd Round Participant)

Leagues

Aggregating individual club success in international tournaments for each countries gives an approximate view of the relative strength of the domestic league. Except for MLS, each country’s top division is divided into thirds, with the top third rated at the highest number, the middle third rated at the middle number, and the bottom third rated at the lowest number. For league sizes not divisible by three, the following patterns were followed, 20 teams: 6-8-6, 16 teams: 5-6-5, 14 teams: 4-6-4. MLS is split into two because the league structure shrinks the difference between the top and bottom teams. For a country’s second division a 25%-50%-25% ratio is used with the top quarter of the second division of equal rating as the bottom third of the top division. For the big four, this means second divisions of 7-6-5.

Ratings	UEFA	CONMEBOL	CONCACAF	CAF	AFC
9-8-7	England Spain Italy Germany
8-7-6	France Russia Ukraine Romania Portugal	Brazil
7-6-5	Netherlands Turkey Greece Belgium Switzerland Denmark	Argentina Uruguay	Mexico
6-5			MLS
6-5-4	Scotland Bulgaria Czech Republic Norway Austria Serbia Israel Cyprus Sweden Slovakia Poland Croatia Belarus	Colombia Venezuela Ecuador Chile Paraguay Peru Bolivia	Costa Rica Honduras	Egypt Tunisia	Japan South Korea

For clubs in international play, their final rating is the higher of their international tournament rating and their league rating. Thus, for Rangers, they would be an “8” even though their position in the Scottish Premier League would make them a “6”.

For a player who has been with multiple clubs during a season, the higher rating for the player will be used. In Landon Donovan’s case, this would make him a “9” as he played in the Europa League Knockout Stage with Everton. Interestingly, he was a “9” the year before as well sitting on the bench for a Champions League Knockout Stage club.

By assigning the club rating to individual players and averaging those ratings for starting lineups for each country’s national team, a reasonable representation can be made of the nation’s underlying on-field talent. Tomorrow, we’ll look at what that data says about the US compared to the world.

Last week's action in MLS featured quite possibly the most unpredictable group of games all season. Philly over Houston? What's happened to Seattle? Or New York? The plot thickens for those lurking mid-table, as we are only one-third of the way through the season. There are 50 maximum points available this week. Here are my picks for Week Eleven:

New York Red Bulls - 2
Houston Dynamo - 1

San Jose Earthquakes - 1
Columbus Crew - 1

Toronto FC - 2
Kansas City Wizards - 1

New York Red Bulls - 2
Chivas USA - 2

DC United - 0
Real Salt Lake - 2

Los Angeles Galaxy - 2
Houston Dynamo - 1

FC Dallas - 2
San Jose Earthquakes - 1

Chicago Fire - 2
Philadelphia Union - 0

Colorado Rapids - 1
Columbus Crew - 0

Seattle Sounders FC - 2
New England Revolution - 0

If you're counting, and you probably are, the World Cup is now less than ten days away. Single digits on the giant hand-operated flip board we all hold in our minds means things are getting really, really real; if you have a vested rooting interest, your nerves are likely headed rapidly towards "shot" status, your mind is conceiving of every possible result for your team, and your nights are filled with glorious dreaming moments of goal-inspired exultation.


If you're just a general unattached fan, anxious for the month-long soccer party to commence for no other reason than that it's the World Cup for pete's sake (perhaps you're Canadian, for example), your footy molecules are vibrating, your attention for anything non-soccer is short, and all the anticipation built up over the past four years is ready to explode.


Which means, for many in both camps, that World Cup madness is taking hold. People are losing themselves in minutiae, obsessing over things like tactics and form, and squeezing every possible drop out of any topic somewhat related to what will happen in South Africa beginning on the 11th. Hucksters are pitching products with the gusto of Viking berserkers. Blogs are launching special coverage, new designs, clever World Cup-themed series and more lists than you can shake a stick at. Stories and opinion pieces are flooding the soccer corner of the web, ranging from the ridiculous to the sublime. It all makes the typical European silly season look rather pedestrian.


The American flavor of this madness is an interesting one. Our passionate and widespread soccer-loving culture is only now beginning to coalesce after years of living on the fringiest of the fringe. "Community" has no real historical meaning in terms of the U.S. National Team; it's a new(ish) concept, and one that has taken shape almost wholly in the digital age. This means the madness spreads rapidly and virally, through anonymous, semi-anonymous, and almost always faceless communication. Instead of a like-minded friend at the bar lamenting that the U.S. back line is a disaster waiting to happen, it's the guy you follow on Twitter whom you've never met, the blogger living three thousand miles away you just became aware a few weeks ago, or the commenter on said blog posting under the pseudonym "USASucks245".


It's enough to drive anyone mad, World Cup looming or not.


What does it mean exactly, that America's collective fandom lacks significant analog roots? Is it good, bad, or none of the above?


This is eye-of-the-beholder stuff. Instantaneous communication has allowed physically isolated pockets of fans to connect in ways not possible before. The result is an accelerated growth and strengthening of the community, with the Internet serving as a digital replacement for the bars, pubs, and similar gathering places that helped solidify bases of support of other nations around the world.


With madness extending its insidious (or should that be intoxicating) web across soccer fans American and otherwise, individual and rational thought will wave a brief goodbye. Thirty days of pure lunacy approaches, and the descent has clearly begun.


Kick the tires and light the fires, nine days until the World Cup!

I don't usually post press releases and the like, but this is too cool not to highlight.


ESPN will be all-soccer all-the-time between 10 AM ET on Thursday, June 10th and the conclusion of the South Africa v. Mexico opening match from South Africa. Even Mike and Mike, the morning radio show that is only occasionally bearable, will have soccer as a major part of their broadcast.


***

ESPN will kick off its month long coverage of the 2010 FIFA World Cup with a 24-hour soccer-themed “Countdown to Kickoff” programming block on ESPN2 beginning Thursday, June 10 at 10 a.m. ET, and concluding Friday, June 11 at 10 a.m. The “24-Hour Countdown to Kickoff” will lead into ESPN’s live presentation of the 2010 FIFA World Cup opening match – host nation South Africa vs. Mexico – Friday, June 11 at 9:30 a.m. from Soccer City Stadium in Johannesburg.world-cup-2010-logo

“ESPN is committed to providing the most comprehensive 2010 FIFA World Cup coverage, and this collection of soccer-themed programs over a 24-hour span in advance of the opening match will help build the excitement for this historic event and give fans a glimpse of what to expect from South Africa during the month ahead,” said Scott Guglielmino, vice president, ESPN programming and acquisitions.

Six hours (10 a.m. – 5 p.m. ET) of daytime programming from South Africa – including three hours of live World Cup preview show (10 a.m. – 1 p.m.) and three hours of the “World Cup Kick-off Celebration Concert” (2 – 5 p.m.) – will anchor the Countdown. Additional programming will include the DC United at Seattle Sounders FC MLS Game of the Week (10 p.m.), the final match before Major League Soccer’s first in-season break for the FIFA World Cup. Also, ESPN Radio’s Mike & Mike in the Morning (simulcast on ESPN2, 6-10 a.m.) on June 11 will focus on South Africa 2010 with guests and tournament previews. Other highlights:



2010 FIFA World Cup Preview Special (10 a.m. – 1 p.m.):

Chris Fowler, Bob Ley and Mike Tirico will host a three-hour live preview of South Africa 2010 from ESPN’s studio location inside the International Broadcast Center (IBC) overlooking Soccer City in Johannesburg. The program will feature all of ESPN’s FIFA World Cup studio analysts: Shaun Bartlett, Ruud Gullit, Jürgen Klinsmann, Alexi Lalas and Roberto Martinez. Other elements:

* Reports from ESPN correspondents covering team camps – Jeremy Schaap (U.S.), Darrell Currie (England), Andrew Orsatti (Australia), John Sutcliffe (Mexico), and Dan Williams (South Africa);
* Human interest correspondent Sal Masekela and general assignment reporters Julie Foudy, Allen Hopkins and Rob Stone will offer features and their perspective on the tournament;
* Comprehensive previews of all eight FIFA World Cup groups;
* A look at South Africa and how the nation is addressing the challenges of hosting the World Cup.



2010 FIFA World Cup Team USA Preview Special (1-2 p.m.):

A one-hour preview focusing on the U.S. Men’s Soccer National Team, highlighting the squad’s strengths, weaknesses, challenges and opportunities as the team enters its fifth straight FIFA World Cup. The live program will examine the chances for success in South Africa 2010 and preview the highly-anticipated opening round match against England. Additional highlights include player profiles and interviews, and a SportsCenter “Sunday Conversation” with Landon Donovan.



FIFA World Cup Kick-Off Celebration Concert (2-5 p.m.):

Sal Masekela, ESPN’s 2010 FIFA World Cup human interest reporter and co-host of The Daily 10 on E!, will host ESPN2’s presentation of the three-hour Kick-Off Celebration Concert in Soweto/Johannesburg, featuring Alicia Keys, the Black Eyed Peas, John Legend and Shakira and popular African artists, such as Angélique, Hugh Masekela, Juanes, K’Naan, Lira, and more. For more information, click here.



SportsNation – 2010 FIFA World Cup Special (5-6 p.m.):

The popular, interactive ESPN2 program co-hosted by Colin Cowherd and Michelle Beadle will feature a FIFA World Cup-themed special. During the show, the “World Cup Dunk Tank” will make its debut, the “Pop Culture” segment will be themed to World Cup, and there will be a special segment featuring Beadle and U.S. Men’s National Team striker Jozy Altidore.

Other highlights of the 24-hour Countdown to Kickoff:

* Outside the Lines – Robben Island: A Greater Goal (6 p.m.): In this special OTL, Chris Connelly reports on how the political prisoners of Robben Island created a soccer league and learned how they could forge a free and peaceful South Africa, the country that is now on the eve of hosting the world’s greatest sporting spectacle. To preview the story, click here.
* E:60 (6:30 p.m.): Jeremy Schaap offers an in-depth profile of U.S. Men’s National Team star and Fulham FC player Clint Dempsey, while Lisa Salters offers a heart-wrenching story about the Haiti U-17 Women’s National Team in the aftermath of the country’s devastating earthquake.
* Homecoming with Rick Reilly: Landon Donovan (June 11: 2:30 a.m.): Before his third consecutive FIFA World Cup appearance, Landon Donovan returned to Redlands, Calif., April 19 as host Rick Reilly and more than 1,500 cheering fans packed the high school gym of the star of the U.S. National Team. The special includes interviews with Donovan’s mother (Donna), father (Tim), twin sister (Tristan) and older brother (Joshua). Others in attendance include Donovan’s former U.S. National Team and current L.A. Galaxy head coach Bruce Arena, current U.S. coach Bob Bradley, his former MLS coach Frank Yallop, and his U.S. U-17 National Team coach John Ellinger, who coached Donovan in the 1999 FIFA U-17 Youth Championship. Galaxy teammate Chris Klein also shares some of his favorite moments with Donovan.
* The 2006 World Cup Film – The Grand Finale (June 11: 3:30 a.m.): Actor Pierce Brosnan narrates the key action from the quarterfinals through the title match of the 2006 FIFA World Cup in Germany. Highlights of the documentary include pre and post-match interviews with the players and never-before-seen footage.



The schedule:




ESPN Inc.’s 2010 FIFA World Cup Coverage in the United States

South Africa 2010 will be ESPN’s seventh FIFA World Cup and coverage of the event promises to be the most comprehensive in company history. ESPN, ESPN2 and ABC will air all 64 matches live and in high definition. ESPN3.com, ESPN’s signature broadband network available in more than 50 million homes, will feature live English-language simulcasts of matches on ESPN and ESPN2. ESPN 3D will feature 25 matches. ESPN Mobile TV will show all matches. ESPN Deportes, the Spanish-language all sports network, will air more than 50 matches in Portuguese live in the U.S., and ESPN Radio will broadcast all 64 matches.

Additionally, ESPN will present 2010 FIFA World Cup television studio programming from site in South Africa, offering U.S. sports fans the most comprehensive news and information coverage throughout the month-long soccer showcase. Studio coverage of the quadrennial global event will include SportsCenter segments, a nightly World Cup Live program, and prematch, halftime and postmatch shows, with additional studio programming and World Cup-branded segments, totaling more than 65 hours of coverage, originating from two sets in and around Johannesburg.

B-Mac 89
Ben Aranda 86
Julius 71
Jason Davis 68
Jason Kuenle 63
Ross Hopper 55
thedoe 52
Alex Will 51
Matt (NES) 51
John Carlton 45
CVO 44
mrburito2 40
Wes Mills 39
Martek 32
WV Hooligan 32
Amerisnob 21
Travis 17
PatrickMKennedy 15
Crocken 12
Hazemeyer 10
J6pini 10
tedmeyer 6

ESPN the Magazine, that is.


They needed an angle, a World Cup story to pull in the casual American fan. Stories about the Yanks and their stars are trite and overdone (apparently), and the team needed something edgy, controversial.


What better than a profile of the young New Jersey-born star who spurned the country of his birth for the nation of his parents?


The story, and Giuseppe Rossi's agreeing to be the focus of an ESPN the Magazine cover piece, are not in and of themselves the problem. Many American had probably never heard of Rossi, and a story on his decision to leave American for Italy and a dream of playing for the Azurri is interesting and provocative on its own. ESPN didn't screw up by sending Jeff Bradley (brother of National Team head coach Bob, by the way) to do the story; they screwed up by choosing to drape the story in World Cup imagery while backhanding American soccer across the face in the process.


Read the tagline on the cover. ESPN went wading in dangerous waters, not only in an effort grab their readership by the balls and lead along them rather than walk them down the story's natural path, but also because Rossi was never a lock to make the Italian team.


So we don't feel too bad for them today, considering the rather blatant shot they took at U.S. National Team fans and American chances. Whether the line was true or not doesn't really matter; ESPN's tact was questionable at best. If U.S. fans were ever going to get over Rossi's "betrayal" (not my word), it was going to take some time; it's unfortunate then that ESPN extended the process by reopening the wound so dramatically.


I say get over it. ESPN didn't help my cause.

A undeniably true fact: If Charlie Davies hadn't been injured in that terrible car crash last October, Robbie Findley is not only not in the U.S. World Cup squad, he might not have even landed in Bob Bradley's fairly wide American talent net.


The loss of Davies created a speedy striker-sized hole in the American team, and Bradley decided early on that Findley was the best approximation of Davies available. Findley has shown flashes at the MLS level of turning into something special, and hell, Davies burst onto the scene as if our of nowhere in 2009, why couldn't Findley do the same?


But Findley struggled in his USMNT appearances for the most part, always seemingly in over his head in the international game. His speed is only useful if knows what he's doing with it; bad touches and bad decisions appeared to doom him and his World Cup chances. Few (if any) gave him a shot of "making the plane", as they say.


Shock of all shocks then when Findley made the World Cup squad over veteran Brian Ching. Bradley's desperate need for a speed option was truly in evidence now, with Findley not even playing in the warm up friendly against the Czech Republic's "B" team and yet somehow showing up on the final 23-man roster. Was Bradley grasping at straws, or did he see something that the rest of us were simply weren't seeing? How could he view Robbie Findley as anything more than an nice MLS player? Robbie Findley at the World Cup? Really?


Alright, but there was no way Findley would see the field in South Africa. Despite a thin and inexperienced striker pool, Bradley has options; Buddle or Gomez might not be the answer, but Clint Dempsey or Landon Donovan can slide up if needed. Findley will have a nice little vacation, get the experience the pomp and drama of the World Cup, and replicate Brian Ching's playing record from 2006: zero appearances.


Then Saturday changed everything, again. This time the change came from Findley himself, on the field against Turkey, showing the 55,000 in attendance and those watching on television what he could do and why Bradley exhibited so much faith in him. Sure, it was only a half, but at least Findley showed he belonged; in the right circumstance in South Africa, his hellish wheels might be enough to make a difference against a worn down opponent. Either Bradley really knew what he was doing, no matter the doubters (remember when "Findley" was trending on Twitter? - it wasn't because people were happy to see his name), or he got lucky. Flash in the Turkey frying pan or not, Robbie Findley leaped up the perceived depth chart.


And this is where it ends, for now. Robbie Findley the choice of some to be first off the bench at striker, the guy coming into a game against a tired defense, perhaps pressuring them into a critical error or providing the American midfield with additional options they lacked before. Give the opponent a new look at minute sixty-five, see how they cope. A change of pace. Findley showed he's capable, so that level of responsibility seems about right. Speedy supersub.


Because really, no one could have Findley as a projected starter based on one forty-five minute period against a non-World Cup team who may or may not have pulled back on the throttle, right? No way someone who knows the game and covers the team on a regular basis could possibly have a sometimes-starter for an MLS team as the strike partner for Jozy Altidore when the United States faces off against England on June 12th. Absurd. Not possible.


Madness.


Right?

VS.

As discussed yesterday, the US is growing as a soccer nation. The next question is how do we compare with the world? As the world perception goes, the US is not a current threat to any of the established soccer powers of the world. That perception is held by a number of fans here as well. Project 2010 was mocked when it was released and many today believe that the US is far from being a competitor. But is that perception reality?

The chart below shows a variety of teams in the world. Most were chosen because they are among the best in the world, a few were chosen for regional or World Cup reasons. For each team, the percentage of points taken against teams with ELO rankings in the top 10, ranked 11 through 25, 26 through 50, and over 50 was calculated along with the overall percentage of points won from matches after the 2002 World Cup through February 1, 2010. The final column is the points earned by the country's team, if the team was to play a hypothetical home and away series with every country (including themselves) in the ELO top 75 using the calculated percentages of points earned. This results in 10 games at the 1-10 percentage, 15 games at the 11-25 percentage, and 25 games at both the 26-50 and the 51+ percentage. The order of the table is ranked by these points. Think of it as if the world championship was decided by single table rather than playoff format.

	Country	Total	1-10	11-25	26-50	51+	Pts
1	Spain	80.8%	79.2%	79.6%	78.2%	83.8%	362
2	Netherlands	71.2%	48.3%	57.1%	80.8%	89.3%	336
3	Brazil	69.7%	59.6%	61.1%	76.5%	81.8%	328
4	England	68.2%	38.1%	61.4%	75.0%	90.0%	326
5	France	70.7%	53.7%	63.9%	61.5%	92.7%	321
6	Argentina	65.0%	34.9%	66.6%	73.5%	84.4%	318
7	Germany	67.0%	33.3%	75.4%	71.4%	78.9%	313
8	Czech Republic	65.1%	40.5%	47.6%	79.2%	78.7%	304
8	Italy	66.3%	48.3%	70.8%	58.3%	82.3%	304
10	Portugal	66.7%	38.3%	42.4%	62.7%	90.0%	290
11	USA	65.6%	14.8%	55.6%	66.7%	86.8%	289
12	Croatia	64.7%	41.7%	51.1%	56.7%	85.7%	285
13	Mexico	62.5%	38.9%	53.6%	56.2%	78.6%	274
14	Egypt	68.4%	14.3%	63.0%	63.6%	75.1%	273
15	Denmark	59.1%	38.5%	44.4%	69.7%	68.8%	271
16	Russia	59.1%	22.8%	59.3%	46.7%	86.5%	267
17	Cote d'Ivoire	65.9%	11.1%	71.4%	48.1%	81.6%	265
18	Switzerland	56.3%	17.6%	59.0%	50.0%	83.3%	264
19	Ukraine	54.7%	18.5%	55.6%	60.0%	70.4%	257
20	Greece	59.1%	39.2%	48.3%	38.1%	88.2%	256
21	Chile	52.4%	22.2%	42.6%	51.0%	83.3%	253
22	Japan	62.6%	15.2%	43.1%	52.1%	79.3%	245
23	Uruguay	50.6%	17.6%	72.9%	54.5%	54.0%	239
24	Australia	61.7%	20.8%	44.4%	41.7%	76.7%	230
24	Turkey	55.9%	17.6%	62.1%	40.5%	68.2%	230
26	Cameroon	59.7%	41.7%	41.7%	35.2%	75.2%	228
26	Colombia	48.0%	33.3%	34.9%	54.1%	63.6%	228
28	Sweden	50.3%	23.3%	21.1%	53.0%	74.4%	224
29	Paraguay	47.7%	45.1%	31.5%	39.6%	70.5%	221
30	Nigeria	62.7%	44.4%	41.7%	28.6%	74.4%	219
31	Ghana	52.3%	25.0%	33.3%	51.5%	59.4%	211
32	Honduras	54.6%	0.0%	50.0%	43.9%	62.4%	204
33	South Korea	55.0%	27.8%	40.7%	27.5%	70.0%	200
34	Costa Rica	50.0%	0.0%	17.5%	45.3%	67.2%	185
35	Algeria	49.8%	0.0%	46.7%	33.3%	54.6%	174
36	Slovenia	40.6%	20.0%	12.8%	31.1%	63.4%	165

As you can see in this analysis, the United States does fairly well, placing 11th behind ten countries recognized as traditional footballing powerhouses. A closer look at the table begins to reveal tiers of countries.

Above 300 points is the top tier, the soccer elite. These nine teams include the only 8 teams to have made a World Cup Championship match in the last 50 years. The only team from this tier not in that list is Spain, who finally broke through their string of underperformances with their Euro 2008 Championship and have been the most dominate team in the world over the last 8 years.

Around 250, there is another break, with only one team between 253 and 239. This second tier contains a number of the teams traditionally viewed as just below the powerhouses. Sides like Portugal, Mexico, Russia, Denmark, and Cote d’Ivoire; having the talent to make a run deep into the World Cup, but not considered threats to win the tournament.

Using 300 and 250 as guideposts, I’ll set a third break more arbitrary break at 200. A break here creates a third and fourth tier. The third tier primarily contains teams that are either growing as a soccer nation; Japan, Australia, Cameroon, Honduras, or have fallen back from being in the second tier; Uruguay, Colombia, Sweden. An analysis done four years previous to this one would likely have put the US in the third tier.

Finally, because of the teams chosen, tier 4 here consists only of a few teams. But these teams represent what tier 4 is, teams traditionally viewed as also rans; these teams have taken 50% or less of the possible points against all competitors during the last eight years.

Aggregating the teams in each tier allows for a further analysis of how the US compares. To do this, I’ve removed the US from tier 2 numbers and averaged the percentages of every team in each tier:

	1-10	11-25	26-50	51+
Tier 1	48.4%	64.8%	72.7%	84.7%
Tier 2	27.6%	53.7%	54.8%	81.0%
Tier 3	26.0%	43.1%	43.5%	69.0%
Tier 4	6.7%	25.7%	36.6%	61.7%
USA	14.8%	55.6%	66.7%	86.8%

Comparing the US to the aggregated tiers, a trend becomes obvious. Compared to even the top tier, the US is great at beating lesser teams. This is not just a case of being in CONCACAF, as Mexico’s percentage against the 51+ category is below both the tier 1 and tier 2 aggregates and Honduras is below the tier 3 average. The US is also very good against teams 26 through 50, falling between the aggregates for tier 1 and tier 2, but being much closer to the tier 1 percentage. Moving up to matches against teams 11 through 25, the US is again between tiers 1 and 2, but closer to the tier 2 number.

However, it is clear that the US is not in the range of tiers 1 or 2 when is comes to getting points off of the top ten teams. While the tier 3 number is high due to “giant killers” Paraguay, Nigeria, and Cameroon that all have 1-10 percentages of over 40, removing these outliers only brings the tier 3 average down to 20.1%. This still places the US somewhere between tiers 3 and 4.

This is why the US is not yet taken seriously by the rest of the world and why they are not seen as a threat to win international tournaments. As discussed yesterday, the US has become better against poor competition. Their bottom end numbers have evolved from their tier 3 days, but their top end numbers are well below their current tier 2 peers. The performance against Spain and in the finals of the Confederations Cup may be changing that perception, but more results are necessary for the US to turn the corner against top 10 teams. If they can, there would be little that distinguishes the US from second tier powers like Portugal, Mexico, and Croatia.

But the distribution of results leads to a question: what separates teams like the US, Egypt, and Switzerland who do relatively well against all teams except the top 10 from teams like Nigeria and Cameroon who have a better points percentage against the top 10 than they do against teams 26 through 50? Tomorrow, I’ll lay a groundwork for that analysis.

As the day (June 12th, duh) draws near, you're likely to see digital mountains of analysis of Bradley's tactics, projected starting lineups, breakdowns position-by-position and matchup-by-matchup (mostly for England, because they come first), and various sundry examinations of all things USMNT. I have a newsreader I use to sort through all of it. Let's just say that it's rather difficult to do so at the moment. The Turkey match spawned an Everest.


Some took Saturday's events as an opportunity to call out Bradley, and American coaches reaching back across a decade plus for that matter, for failing to recognize calm, cool, and collected in midfield. A wave of Torres support is sweeping through the American soccer community, bringing with it a new storyline to the World Cup buildup.


If you felt like it, you could spend your entire work day reading nothing but overwrought assessments of friendlies that ultimately don't matter. Yes, the performances of certain individual players and the team as a collective unit is indicative of something, but by no means does a poor first half against Turkey definitely prove that the U.S. will have their doors blown off by England. On the flip side, a strong second half doesn't necessarily prove the opposite either; thought we're ten days from kickoff, most sides in the tournament have serious questions to answer and kinks to work out.


And the drama will only grow thicker with each passing day. Like a dense fog rolling across the soccer landscape, it's already affecting perspective everywhere while it precipitates nonsense on an unbelievable scale. Even as I write this, England is dragging out a torturous final roster announcement process; I'm probably counting wrong, but it seems to me every member of the squad has been rumored to be both in and out and sometimes simultaneously.


El Tri is thrashing in agony as the dos Santos family takes turns firing shotgun blasts into its green-clad body. Giovani makes it, his brother Jonathan does not. Zizinho, the players' father, rips the Mexican FA and Javier Aquirre, while declaring that Jonathan will never play for Mexico. Giovani, reportedly distraught over his brother's exclusion, is threatening to pull out of the team.


Whoa.


This makes me wonder what the world (meaning my world, meaning America, and meaning everything surrounding the USMNT) might be like should us Yanks ever take to the game in a widespread and uber-passionate way. Would we fall victim to the media-inspired teeth-gnashing of England? Could we ever find ourselves dealing with the telenovela-like internal conflict of Mexico? We've got cultural attachments, and strong ones, to both nations. It's reasonable to think we might be influenced by their way of doing things, even if they're not actually making a conscious choice.


In the grand scheme of things, coverage and support of the U.S. National Team on a meaningful scale is in its honeymoon phase. Most of the coverage is positive. Human interest angles, feel good pieces, and "the sport is growing" stories dominate the landscape. The hopes of a nation don't rest on the shoulders of Donovan, Dempsey, et al even if they might feel a bit more pressure to perform than they used to. I can't help but wonder how we'll handle it (must throw in the obligatory "if") when we reach a point of serious national interest, or when the attitude towards an American World Cup campaign isn't one of scoff if they're bad or mild surprise and momentary interest if they're good.


The American soccer culture is a melting pot of cultures and influences, yet to be cooked down into something clearly identifiable. England and Mexico are part of the recipe, that much is certain. Let's hope the finished brew tastes like neither, but is something uniquely American, both on the field and in everything that surrounds the game.