If you’ve followed my posts and comments, you know that I’ve become a huge fan of Bob Bradley’s. The thing I love about Bradley is that if you paid enough attention you could find the logic in nearly every decision that he made. That doesn’t mean it was always the right logic or that the results turned out well. And his goals were rarely the goals of US fans, but watching Bob coach was like watching a poker player who always knew the odds and never strayed from playing it straight.

I recently had a comment war (well, more of a peaceable debate) with Steven Stoehr in which I stated that Bob Bradley’s reign as manager had cut four years off the timeline for us to be true competitors at the World Cup. In actuality, I think it’s probably more like two years, but since the World Cup is a four year event, I rounded up. But, the primary subject of that debate, Ricardo Clark, is the perfect example of how Bob’s managerial style has knocked time off of the US becoming competitors.

Let’s reimagine Clark’s development if Bob Bradley had been managing the USMNT from 2002-2010. As much as I am able, I’ll use Clark’s actual runs of form and examples from the last four years of Bradley to show the plausibility of this exercise. I'll assume that Clark's time with New York looks about the same under a different manager than it did with Bob at the helm.

2003 – Clark is selected second in the Superdraft by the Metrostars, plays a substantial number of minutes, and is nominated as a finalist for MLS rookie of the year.

2004 – Bradley calls Clark in to the 2004 January camp as he has similarly done with Omar Gonzalez, Chris Pontius, Sean Franklin, and Geoff Cameron the camp after their rookie years. Clark doesn’t make the roster for the January friendly and struggles for playing time with the Metrostars not making a national team roster through the summer.

Clark regains his starting position near the end of the season and caps that performance by scoring a goal against LA in the playoffs. In the midst of this, Clark is called up for the October matches in the semifinal round of qualifying and makes a substitute appearance in the 6-0 thrashing on Panama that seals advancement to the hexagonal. This parallels Bradley’s substitution pattern in the 2008 6-1 Cuba thrashing when three of the youngest members of US talent pool Adu, Altidore, and Torres are subbed in. Clark starts the now meaningless semifinal round match against Jamaica as Adu, Altidore, and Torres did at T&T.

2005 – Bradley holds a January camp (as he’s done every year) Clark gets called in and sees a half in a friendly against some Scandinavian team. Clark gets called in for three of the first five hex matches, but sees little to no time on the field and two of the three friendlies where he sees a total of 60 minutes on the field. Clark is named to the 2005 Gold Cup where he has the same run of form that earned him MLS player of the month for July 2005, playing well in several substitution situations. Clark becomes a mainstay of the US bench, providing the occasional start, but regularly coming in as a substitute to ice games the same way Bradley later uses him in 2007.

San Jose/Houston offer to renegotiate Clark’s contract with one year left on it. Clark is advised that his national team appearance have made a potential move to Europe after the 2006 season a possibility. Clark does not renegotiate his contract with MLS.

2006 – Clark continues to be a bench player for the USMNT making several appearance in the warmup games, and is named to the World Cup Squad where he is never used because the US never holds a lead late in a match. Clark returns to MLS where he is added to the All-Star team after several players withdraw with injuries. Clark helps the Dynamo to the MLS Cup Title in their first year in Houston and is named to MLS’ Best XI for 2006.

2007 – During the winter transfer window, the 23 year old Clark who now has between 10 and 15 caps and has been named MLS All-Star, MLS Best XI, and finalist for MLS rookie of the year, gets offers from several clubs and winds up signing a three and a half year contract with a midtable team from Scotland, Belgium, or Denmark or a bottom table team from Netherlands, Germany, or England. Clark struggles to find playing time during the second half of the league season, but by April is contributing minutes to his new club.

Clark is the first choice defensive midfielder for the US having surpassed the 30 year old Pablo Mastroeni. He starts five of six matches (missing one for suspension) for the US in the 2007 Gold Cup and is left out of the more experimental Copa America roster.

2007/08 – 2008/09 Clark returns to his club after a successful Gold Cup and gradually improves his tactical sense and technical ability while becoming a mainstay in the lineup for both club and country.

2009 – The USMNT have a breakout performance in the Confederations Cup with Clark playing a major role in his defensive midfielder role. The discipline he's learned in Europe reduces his propensity for cards and he plays every game. In the summer transfer window, with one year left on his contract, Clark is sold to Eintracht Frankfurt where he enjoys a stable first season with his new club.

2010 – The now 50 cap Clark with three years experience in Europe, better defensive positioning, tactical awareness, discipline, and technical ability, pairs with Michael Bradley in the central midfield and stabilizes a shaky backline as the US wins its group and makes a run to the World Cup quarterfinals.

Admittedly, this is fantasy. But nothing in this scenario is a stretch. By the end of 2005, at the age of 22, Clark already had to his MLS credit, a rookie of the year finalist, a player of the month, and 90 appearances in MLS regular season and playoff games. Yet, his first cap wasn’t until October of 2005. During 2005 Kerry Zavagnin, Steve Ralston, and Chris Armas logged a total of over 1900 minutes of game time. None of these games was so important that three players over thirty needed to be played over finding a few hundred minutes for a promising young player.

Clark is no world beater, but he is a solid player. In a league that called its fouls tighter, in a league that requires greater tactical awareness, in a league where Clark needed to learn to play smarter, Clark would have either gotten better or failed. Expanding the talent pool analogy further, you don’t have to sink or swim when the pool is shallow enough that you can stand on the bottom. Any player being looked at for the national team can currently stand on the bottom of the MLS pool.

Instigating player movement has been one of Bradley’s achievements over the last four years. While that will have a direct impact on the players themselves and be very evident for the next cycle. It’s also beneficial for the US long term. Teams and managers that have success with players of any nationality tend to look to bring others on. This can definitely be seen with US players. Fulham, Everton, and Aston Villa are obvious examples, but Aalborg, Mochengladbach, Pachuca, 1860 Munich, and Rangers are others. I have even read somewhere though I can no longer find it, that the person that brought Onyewu in at Standard is the same person that brought Kljestan in at Anderlecht.

Getting players to Europe matters for the current development of these players. Getting players to new clubs in Europe means easier opportunities to move players to Europe in the future. Places like Bolton, Sochaux, Frankfurt, Milan, and Aris will probably be more likely to take a look at Americans now. Rumors about Dempsey to Milan only strengthen that argument.

If his term as manager is done, Bob Bradley’s legacy will likely be a subtle one; punctuated by a couple of great team performances and last minute wins and a general feeling that he did nothing more than meet expectations. To me that’s folly, to me he moved the US from being a regional power, capable of crashing or sneaking out in group stages, beating a regional rival in the World Cup, and winning Gold Cups (the US team in a nutshell from 1998-2006) to the cusp of an international power helping scatter players throughout the world while forming a cohesive team that was capable of winning a World Cup group and defeating teams like Spain on occasion.

If Clark would have taken this alternative path, would his former midtable, second tier team fill a hole in their roster with the likes of Omar Gonzalez, Sean Franklin, or Chris Pontius? I don’t know, but they’d probably take a look. And US soccer would be in much better shape because of it.

This morning, I wrote about the forgotten (at least it seems that way to me) USMNT camp taking place in LA; this afternoon, the focus goes to one American player who has seemingly slipped off the radar of many fans. Ricardo Clark.


Clark is still looking for a new team after turning down the possibility of returning to the Houston Dynamo (he, like Stuart Holden, is out of contract), and while the trial of Holden at Burnley, now Bolton, has been dominating the attention of Americans who care about that sort of thing, Clark's saga is actually more interesting.


For info on Clark and his possible landing spot, there's only one resource: Greg Seltzer at No Short Corners. Greg's been tracking the list of Clark suitors since the beginning, and has an update as of yesterday (Clue #3).


That's right; according to Greg, clubs from seven different countries are interested in Clark's services. Now, there are certainly varying degrees of "interest" and not all of the clubs in question may pony up what Clark wants. But it's simply fascinating to see an American player, who's by no means "young" (Clark turns 27 in early February) and who has spent every year of his professional career in MLS, with that kind of attention. It helps that Clark is a free agent, of course.


Seltzer mentions that Clark's suitors definitely include (or did include) clubs from Ligue 1 (France), Bundesliga (Germany), La Liga (Spain), the Danish SuperLiga, and the UK (who Greg thinks might be Celtic), with two more unknown. Clark's performance this summer at the Confederations Cup obviously earned him some kudos in Europe, and not just in one or two places.


I like Clark as a player, even if I think there are better midfield options for Bob Bradley, and even if I think Clark is sometimes a bit too reckless for the international game; but his finding a soft spot to land (meaning he plays) is still important to the US World Cup fortunes because I have no doubt that Clark will play a role in the team this summer.


Though Donovan's loan to Everton is higher-profile, and Holden's trial at Bolton has potential, both of those situations could end with the player in question returning to his MLS club. Not so for Clark; we know he'll end up abroad, and while he's not the country's most visible player or a young star on the rise, he is an American soccer export with a chance to make a mark in Europe.


So the question now is, where would you like to see Clark end up? The specific clubs involved could change the answer, of course, but based simply on his talents and the leagues we know, what would be the best fit?

The off-season has only just begun for the Houston Dynamo, and already there are reports the team could look significantly different next year. Two of Houston's more prominent players and freshly minted US National Team regulars are reportedly headed out.


Ricardo Clark

First, a departure of the confirmed variety: Ricardo Clark as informed the Dynamo that he has no intention of signing a new contract when his current one expires next month. Clark has turned in another solid MLS campaign while also featuring in midfield for the US, and obviously sees his opportunity to go abroad.


It's tough to blame him, even if it is painful as an MLS fan to watch another talented American leave; Clark has improved consistently, and at 26, still has more than a few good years left in him. While he's not flashy and might not sell tickets on his own, he's exactly the type of player that MLS must hold onto to raise the level of play and improve their product.


The problem is that Clark is in line for a massive raise in Europe, one that the Dynamo could never match. Already making over $200k, Clark's salary slot makes re-signing in Houston almost impossible. Clark's national team time this summer has increased his profile abroad dramatically, as evidenced by the interest Serie A side Livorno showed in him back in July. It seems apparent that Clark has maxed out on both his ability to grow and his ability to make money in MLS.


I'm lost as to a guess where Clark might end up, but something tells me France could be a good bet.



Stuart Holden

Holden's position is slightly different than Clark's, in that his departure is not a foregone conclusion. It's one of the regular jokes that floats around the MLS community that Holden is woefully underpaid (per the MLS Players Union, Holden made $34,728.75 for 2009); while his salary is certain to skyrocket, and rightfully so, Holden still faces a difficult decision for himself and his family.


Rumors are already swirling that Holden could head the nation of his birth, Scotland, to play for an SPL club. It's just not about salary or going "home" for Holden though, and he's rightfully concerned about playing time. A lack of pitch time would not only stall Holden's development as a player, it might put his World Cup roster spot in jeopardy. Holden's keenly aware of that, so expect him to err on the side of regular first team play rather than money or prestige.


Again, Holden is another young, talented American player that MLS needs to keep around if at all possible; from a club-centric American soccer viewpoint, a Holden departure would be a crushing blow. Unfortunately, a National Team-focused perspective might actually go the other way; in order for Holden to continue to improve at a rate that will make him a star contributor for the United States one day soon, it may be necessary for him to go.


Just not Scotland. Please, Stu. The Old Firm has caché, and I'm sure playing in Scotland would be very nice for a native of the country, but the SPL is not the place to grow. Rather, it's not the place to grow when there are better leagues available, some of which surely have clubs interested in Holden.

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The Dynamo, year after year, contend for the MLS Cup title because they are well-run, have an excellent coach, and find talented players to fill holes created when established names leave. Clark is gone, and Holden might be on his way as well; if both of those crucial midfield players leave, what will the Dynamo look like for 2010?

Essien, Pirlo, Mascherano, Xavi, Iniesta, Kaka. These guys can deliver devastating tackles, brilliant balls over the top, immense pitch coverage, fantastic one-touch passing, penetrating runs, and jaw dropping dribbling. As diverse as their talents are, they all line up in the center midfield and create the backbones of their teams. They are charged either with being the engine for their team or shutting down the other team’s engine. Only in the central midfield can you find this diversity of talents and roles. While the quality of those above midfielders may not be available in the US talent pool, that level of diversity certainly is.

Eight players have staffed the US central midfield in the 13 “A” team games that have been played in 2009. While Mastroeni and Beckerman have played in games with the US “A” team, their time with the MNT is likely coming to a close; Mastroeni because of age and Beckerman because of better options. The rest of the US talent pool in the center of the pitch is young but experienced for their age. Bradley, Clark, Edu, Feilhaber, Kljestan, and Torres average only 23.3 years old but 20.7 caps. They are still developing, but have shown the brilliance of their potential and the mistakes of their youth.

I wanted to see how the US plays with these players on the field in a more concrete way than just by my own feelings about them. Similar to the hockey plus-minus stat, the table below shows each players minutes, the goals scored while they have been in the central midfield, the goals conceded while they have been in the central midfield, each of those numbers per game equivalent (where game equivalent equals 93 minutes with the extra three added for average second half stoppage time), and the difference between the two.

	Min	GS	GC	GS/GE	GC/GE	+/-
Bradley	1016	18	14	1.6	1.3	0.3
Clark	563	12	5	2.0	0.8	1.2
Feilhaber	310	6	7	1.8	2.1	-0.3
Kljestan	288	2	6	0.6	1.9	-1.3
Mastroeni	201	4	3	1.9	1.4	0.5
Torres	66	2	3	2.8	4.2	-1.4
Beckerman	10	0	0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Edu	1	0	0	0.0	0.0	0.0

But that’s only part of the story, because these are midfield pairings, who you are paired with matters too. Here’s where the subjectivity of this comes in. I am going to classify the central midfielders into three groups: more useful when the opponent has the ball (defensive), more useful when the US has the ball (offensive), equally useful (balanced). I classify Clark, Mastroeni, Beckerman, and Edu as defensive; Feilhaber and Torres as offensive; and Bradley and Kljestan as balanced. Below is a chart with all the different combinations that the US has played this year.

	Min	GS	GC	GS/GE	GC/GE	+/-
Def-Bal	494	11	2	2.1	0.4	1.7
Bal-Bal	252	2	5	0.7	1.8	-1.1
Bal-Off	210	5	6	2.2	2.7	-0.5
Def-Off	121	3	2	2.3	1.5	0.8
Def-Bal-Off	45	0	2	0.0	4.0	-4.0
Def-Def	45	1	1	2.0	2.0	0.0
Def-Bal-Bal	18	0	0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Bal	14	0	0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Def	7	0	0	0.0	0.0	0.0

The two tables show one thing very strongly; Sacha Kljestan has been terrible for the US this year. While Torres’ defensive numbers are not great, the statistical analysis there suffers from an overall lack of minutes and being skewed by the three man center midfield disaster that was the Costa Rica first half. Kljestan has no such excuses. His removal from a lineup has generally been followed by a US goal (Mexico) or two (at El Salvador), while his insertion is generally followed by an opposition goal (Italy and Brazil). Because of terrible play when Kljestan is in the lineup, the Bal-Bal combination has suffered greatly. The other three combinations that the US has frequently used shows a stable trend:

	Min	GS	GC	GS/GE	GC/GE	+/-
Def-Bal	494	11	2	2.1	0.4	1.7
Def-Off	121	3	2	2.3	1.5	0.8
Bal-Off	210	5	6	2.2	2.7	-0.5

As the more defensive players are replaced by more offensive players, the goals conceded rises; however, the number of goals scored does not significantly change. An analysis of the numbers separated from player bias, stylistic leanings, and form arguments shows that the US should start its matches with a pairing of a defensive midfielder and a balanced center midfielder with an attacking option off the bench to replace the balanced player when a late goal is needed. In that case, there is a slightly higher likelihood of scoring without selling out the back against the counter. In games where an Off has replaced a Def by red card (Italy when Feilhaber moved to the middle after Clark was tossed) or substitution (Mexico, again Feilhaber for Clark) the US has allowed 3 goals and scored 1 in 74 minutes; whereas a Off has never been brought in for a Bal.

Until Edu returns, Clark is the only top defensive midfielder the US has. Likewise until Jones is eligible and healed, Bradley is the only good option as a balanced midfielder. While their play might be ugly, the objective results of their pairing is hard to argue with. In 370 minutes with them on the pitch together, the US has scored eight goals and conceded one or 2.0 goals scored per game and 0.3 goals conceded per game.

Central midfield pairings can be defensive, possessive, creative, attacking, or some combination of these things. The goal should be to find the pairing that gives a team the best chance to win. For whatever reason, the US bleeds goals when anything nearing an offensively minded midfield is played, and those more offensively minded players have not contributed to the attack enough to offset that loss. When healthy and not suspended, objectively the pairing of Clark and Bradley puts the US in the best position to win. That being said, the statistics make a strong case for looking at the pairing of Torres and Clark; as the strike rate with Torres on the field is the highest of any midfielder and Clark’s low concede rate may balance that midfield nicely.

Just a little catch up, as I attempt to reboot my brain; I haven't exactly been at the top of my game in recent days.

Two young American players are in the news for potential moves; one who raised his stock during a strong Confederations Cup, and one who remains a frustratingly incomplete player yet to impact the USMNT.

Houston Dynamo midfielder Ricardo Clark is set to move to Italian side Livorno, but not until January, according to a reports in the Italian press. Clark's growth as a player should be helped by the move, and there's no reason to think he won't see significant playing time for the newly promoted club. Just keep in mind that I've yet to find this move as "confirmed" in any official sense.

Kenny Cooper is also staying in MLS, at least for the time being. Buzz Carrick reports that Cooper will stay with FC Dallas through the end of the 2009 season, when his current contract expires. Cooper can leave on a free transfer in January, and seems likely to do so.

It's time for Cooper to go, in my opinion, though I see no harm in his finishing out this season before heading elsewhere.

How do you feel about Clark landing in Italy, and where do you see Cooper ending up at season's end?

As I mentioned yesterday, Landon Donovan is being targeted by newly promoted Serie A side Livorno; you can now add another American to their wishlist, as it has been revealed that Livorno are working on a deal for Houston Dynamo midfielder Ricardo Clark as well.

Clark was among many Americans who put forth a strong showing at the Confederations Cup last month, and rumors surrounding his future began when French club Rennes (home of Carlos Bocanegra) were said to be interested in his services.

While the general consensus seems to be that Serie A would not be a good fit for Landon Donovan's game, my sense is that it fits Clark perfectly.

Does Clark to Livorno make sense? Is it a better fit for him than for Donovan?

And it's Ricardo Clark. Expediency is the order of the day, and Clark's trip from Houston to Costa Rica is relatively short.

I don't expect Clark to factor in either qualifier.

It appears that Edu's injury is worse than originally feared (it's out there, I promise, I just can't find the link right now), something which will likely effect his availability for both the Honduras match as well as the Confederations Cup.

Doh.

*UPDATE* I promised a link on Edu's injury, and here it is: U.S.' Edu to miss Confederations Cup