No, not rolls and fillings…that’s pastry school. This is soccer.

Beginning after the upcoming friendly with Netherlands and ending when the final World Cup roster is released, you will see a lot of 23 man projected rosters. The problem I have with most of them is that most of them are put together as an “A” team and a “B” team that mimics the “A” team.

Now, the first half of that process is a worthwhile endeavor. After all, Bradley’s not going to leave someone off the team that’s a projected starter (barring injury or a WAG crisis). Assuming Bradley sticks with the 4-4-2, and assuming that injured players stay on their projected timelines, there are several that present themselves as clear first choice options. Other positions are down to a 1a and 1b situation, and a couple positions are still unclear because of current or past injuries. I see these as follows:

Absolute Starters (if you’re healthy, you’re in the lineup)
GK – Howard
CB1 – Onyewu
RM – Dempsey
CM – Bradley
LM – Donovan
CF1 – Altidore

Timeshares (both will make the team if healthy, who starts is a matter of form and strategy)
RB – 1a Cherundolo, 1b Spector
CB2 – 1a Bocanegra, 1b DeMerit
LB – 1a Bornstein, 1b Bocanegra

Still Up in the Air
DM – Edu or Clark
Because of Edu’s past injury, there has yet to be a good competition to see who will fill this spot. I’ll give Clark the edge for now based on his performance with the team last year.
CF2 – ??
If Davies is able to complete his recovery, he could reclaim this spot, otherwise Findley seems to have the inside track to being the starter. For the sake of the analysis (and hopeless optimism), I’ll pencil in Charlie.

That’s 13 players that, if healthy, should amass almost all of starts for the US in the World Cup. That leaves 10 positions to cover tactical needs and injury coverage needs. Two of those will be keepers. So we are now down to 8 field players.

So what is needed tactically? Tactical changes from the starting eleven come in a few forms, 1) you’re up or level and want to keep the result, 2) you’re down or level and need goals, or 3) you’re down a man due to a red card. I’m going to ignore number 3; again with the hopeless optimism.

The US hasn’t been great playing ahead against quality team. Tactically, these are the substitutions I would expect from Bradley in these situations: 1) bring on a new DM. With slower CBs, a quick DM is necessary to close down that space at the top of the 18 and neither Clark nor Edu have the extreme fitness required to do that job for a full 90. 2) Bring in a target forward. For those of you that think target forwards are useless, I would challenge you to find a situation where a ref allows more dead ball setup time than for a free kick in the final third. 3) Replace the most defensive player whose legs are shot.

Looking at the rosters of last year’s games in which the US’ opponent scored in the last 30 minutes to change the result of the game (Italy, Brazil, and Mexico), the ability to make these substitutions was limited. In none of these games was there a classic DM on the bench and Italy and Brazil had Casey on the bench. Injuries to Edu and Ching last summer left Bradley without the ability to implement this substitution pattern. But I would expect this pattern if the necessary people to implement it are healthy.

If the US is down a goal, something that there is a strong pattern to go off of, Bradley will likely 1) bring in a more attacking midfield option for the DM, 2) bring in a RM and move Dempsey up top and 3) bring in a new goal minded striker.

These two situations add up to another DM, CF, what amounts to injury cover, CM, RM, and CF. Filling these position, will require some more educated guesses, but they shouldn’t be to hard to come up with players who could fill that role, listed by order of likelihood:

DM – Clark or Edu, whoever is not the starter
Target CF – Ching, Casey
Attacking CM – Feilhaber, Torres, Kljestan
RM – Holden
Goal scoring CF – Findley or Davies, whoever is not the starter

With five designated roles, that leaves three field players on the roster that will probably not see the field unless there is an injury. For those players, pitch coverage is key. Having the right primary position is a plus, but the ability to play multiple roles is important. With most of the team defined, let’s look at what injury coverage the team has. The lists below include positions that Bradley has recently played players and positions that these players often play with their club teams.

RB (2) – Cherundolo, Spector
CB (5) – Onyewu, Bocanegra, DeMerit, Spector, Bornstein
LB (3) – Bornstein, Bocanegra, Spector
DM (3) – Edu, Clark, Bradley
CM (3) – Bradley, Feilhaber, Holden
RM (4) – Dempsey, Holden, Donovan, Feilhaber
LM (3) – Donovan, Dempsey, Feilhaber
CF (6) – Altidore, Davies, Findley, Ching, Dempsey, Donovan

Looking at the balance of this roster, the biggest remaining question is how many defenders is Bradley comfortable taking. My guess is that the Spector and Bornstein experiments as CBs is an attempt to determine if he can get away with only bringing 3 true CBs. Almost every analysis that I’ve seen has a fourth true CB, whether that’s Goodson, Marshall, Conrad, etc. But, honestly, that player will never see the field unless two of Onyewu, Bocanegra, and Demerit can’t go because of injury or card issues. If Bradley feels comfortable with Spector, Bornstein, and Edu as emergency fourth center backs, he may not fill that position.

One position that does look thin is right back. With only two players that line up there, including one that may line up in other defensive positions, a player capable of playing that emergency injury spot is a likely inclusion for the team. Right now, my money would be on Pearce to go as a LB option, freeing the other LBs to slot in to other positions, who could also fill in on the right in an injury or suspension situation.

Donovan and Dempsey provide enough cover for the forwards. That leaves either one or two positions to cover midfield injury and suspension issues. Because of this, the players chosen for these positions need to be able to player multiple positions. If Bradley takes a fourth CB, then the ability to play CM and LM would be the most important. This favors Torres or Kljestan as the last included player. If there are two tickets available, this role would likely be split into a player who can play centrally as a CM or DM and one that if capable of playing either side mid spot, to give further flexibility in the use of Donovan and Dempsey. In this case Torres is probably a stronger frontrunner for central spot as he more naturally slides into a forced DM role than Kljestan and the pool of DMs is not strong after Clark and Edu (I can’t seriously consider Jones at this point). That leaves the winger spot with Beasley, Rogers, and Bedoya seemingly the top competitors for those places at this point.

Which players ultimately fill these roles will be a question of talent and form in the upcoming months. However, the roles that these players will fill are likely already determined. Any analysis that talks about someone as “the second best _____ option” misses the point. Unless the number one choice goes down with an injury before the World Cup, being second best does not necessary mean a ticket to South Africa. Bench players for the World Cup need to be either specialists for situations that are likely to arise or generalists that can fill in emergency gaps should they arise. If you want to get into the head of what Bob Bradley might do with his World Cup lineup focus on the roles that players are being given during the remaining friendlies.