World Cup seeding is almost impossible to figure. Even when very intelligent people attempt to flesh out just who will be seeded for next year's World Cup by applying the formula used during the last cycle, they're stonewalled by one annoying fact: FIFA changes the math, at their whim, all the time.
And, as usual, we expect them to do it again for 2010. The esteemed governing body of international soccer still has yet to announce the seeding formula, and courtesy of Sports Illustrated's Grant Wahl, it doesn't appear they will do so until after then entire thirty-two team field is filled out.
For anyone that pays any attention to FIFA and the way they do business, this is in no way surprising. The move smacks of preferential treatment for those "big" footballing countries yet to qualify that will play in European playoffs this month, among them France and Portugal. There's really no other reason to wait; the group draw happens in three weeks time, and yet FIFA plants holds back on the seeding process until the field is filled. Forgive me my tinfoil hat if it appears glaringly obvious that the ability to adjust the formula to benefit those "big" nations, provided they win their playoffs of course, is the only reason to do so.
As a disclaimer, let me say that this little rant has nothing to do with the US getting seeded. Hope on that front faded for me some time ago, though it's impossible to know for sure if the Americans are out of luck, because FIFA refuses to establish the procedure. It's little wonder, then, that there are more than a few Americans still holding on to some sliver of a possibility of a chance that the US will find itself in the seeded pot come December 4th.
It's not happening, and I'm fine with that (well not fine exactly, but I have accepted it); what I'm not fine with is FIFA so blatantly favoring nations like France and Portugal, who had ample opportunity to qualify from the UEFA process without needing to play playoff series with "lesser" nations.
The wonder of the World Cup is not only the greatest players facing off on the biggest stage, but the smaller and less-heralded nations of the footballing world getting their shot to go for glory. Establishing the seeding process well ahead of time, even if it does skew significantly to traditional powers who may or may not be of top quality in the current cycle, would be the correct thing to do. Even if FIFA's intention isn't to favor the historical giants of Europe, their actions do nothing to change the impression that it is.
The formula for seeding teams in the tournament should not be dependent on which teams make it, but an established process by which every nation in the world knows what they must do to get themselves to the enviable position of a seeded position in the World Cup. If France and Portugal are deserving of a seed, we should already know. Both struggled in qualifying, show that they have significant holes and inconsistencies, and yet may find themselves with easy paths to the knockout round in South Africa (provided they qualify, of course).
I suppose I should just let it go; none of the "f's" in "FIFA" stand for "fair" after all.
