One day (presumably), MLS will get to the point where which clubs progress to the MLS Cup final doesn't really matter. By then, it will be all about the competition, and no matter who is playing, the final will receive ample attention and strong casual interest.
As long as the league continues to hold onto the notion that a singular marquee final is needed, ala the Super Bowl (or Soccer Bowl for that matter), the goal of the season, from a marketing standpoint, will be to drive as much attention as possible to the championship match. Drawing in casual fans, or more appropriately soccer fans who have not yet taken to MLS, is a major concern; for that reason, the game is half almost as much about the spectacle as it is about the competition.
After the first legs of the opening round playoff matches, picking out favorites to win it all is difficult. Margins are either nonexistent or razor thin for every match-up, and that means that every club still has at least a reasonable chance to advance. From a intrigue standpoint for fans of the league, it's a wonderful thing; even those whose teams fell short of the playoffs can get some enjoyment out of the tournament. That's why the playoffs exist.
As per the MLS playoff structure, the eight qualifying teams entered the playoffs each on equal competitive footing; any of them has a shot, and while some clubs may have more talent than others, luck is as much a part of things as skill. Fair or not, that's just the way it is.
On the field, things may be level. In the arena of marketing, they're clearly not.
Some, even to the point of conspiracy (I kid, a little), believe that MLS is anxious for a Beckham-Blanco showdown. On the surface, it makes sense; Beckham and Blanco are the league's two biggest stars, each attract large groups of fans from different demographics, and a MLS Cup Final with them involved has the potential for large (by MLS standards) TV numbers. Americans love stars.
But there's another possible match-up that might actually bring the league more in terms of excitement, television drawing power, and ultimate credibility: Seattle Sounders FC against anybody else.
The Sounders making the playoffs, bringing with them their massive crowds and fervent support, was a major coup for the league. TV ratings are better when the Sounders play, casual fans of the league take more notice thanks to their success and attendance records, and one of the new faces of the sport in the United States (for better or worse), Drew Carey, gets to be out in front extolling the virtues of the game while he roots on his club. Both from an on-field and marketing standpoint, 2009 has been a dream start in the Pacific Northwest.
The MLS Cup Final will be played at Qwest Field, home of those aforementioned Seattle Sounders. It would go beyond the point of obviousness to say that the Sounders in the final would be the best case scenario for the league; if Seattle did make it all the way, there could conceivably be 60,000+ in attendance. Ask the average American if they believe it possible (provided they're aware of MLS) that a crowd that large would show up for a domestic league soccer game in the United States, and I bet they'd probably have a hearty chuckle. Pulling off an event that big in the championship final would go a long way towards giving MLS a bit more respectability in the sports marketplace; Americans aren't exactly sheep, but they're certainly more likely to take an interest in something that brings in large numbers of fans.
I have trouble rooting against the Sounders because of the massive potential a home MLS Cup Final could have in Seattle. From a purely competitive standpoint, I cringe at the thought that an expansion side could win the Cup in their first year of existence in the "modern" MLS. Still, it would make for such a great story that as unbiased observer, I find myself hoping to see a sea of "rave green" at Qwest Field on November 22nd.
It won't even really matter who they're playing (but I guess Blanco and the Fire would be the league's preferred choice).
Just to better frame my thoughts on Seattle, I want to point you in the direction of a column I wrote for MLS Daily way back in March. The style is a little different than what I do here, but I don't think the importance of the Sounders success on the long term future of the league can't be overstated, and so I hope you'll read it.
