Guest Post by Matt - US Soccer Daily


Though it’s not yet official, there seems to be general consensus in the international soccer community that the pots used in next Friday’s World Cup draw will look like this:

POT 1-Brazil, Spain, Argentina, France, England, Italy, Germany, South Africa

POT 2- Netherlands, Portugal, Denmark, Slovenia, Greece, Slovakia, Serbia, Switzerland

POT 3- USA, Mexico, Honduras, South Korea, North Korea, Japan, Australia, New Zealand

POT 4- Paraguay, Uruguay, Chile, Ghana, Ivory Coast, Cameroon, Nigeria, Algeria


As USMNT fans know from recent experience, the draw can and usually does have a huge impact on a team’s odds of advancing to the knockout stages of the tournament. The way the above pots are set up gives each team a shot at finding themselves in the easiest group or the Group of Death. I’m not going to go through a mock draw; instead I’ll just give some possible groups of interest for USMNT and international fans alike.


1. USMNT Group of Death: As if Group E in the 2006 World Cup wasn’t bad enough (Italy, Czech Republic, Ghana), the US could find themselves in an even tougher group come Saturday:

Brazil
Netherlands
USA
Ivory Coast

The US would be fortunate to win any of these games, making a top two finish in the group unlikely. Brazil has shown their class this summer in CONMEBOL qualifying and the Confederations Cup, while the Netherlands once again bring a very talented team to the tournament that waltzed through UEFA qualification. Didier Drogba and Ivory Coast, meanwhile, are being touted by a fair share of pundits as having a good chance at becoming the first World Cup champions from Africa. The US did manage to make their way out of their difficult Confederations Cup group, but this one would be a whole other level.


2. Group of Karma: More than a few people are a little irked out how France made it to the World Cup, with Thierry Henry’s controversial winner and FIFA’s not-so-subtle efforts to help Les Bleus with the playoff seeding system. So justice would be served if Raymond Domenech’s side found themselves in this group:

France
Netherlands
Mexico
Ivory Coast

France has had a lackluster qualifying campaign and at this point does not look like a team capable of winning this tournament. With that much talent, however, things can click at the right time to give them a chance at the title. Even if that were to happen, the above group would make it extremely difficult just to make it to the round of 16, with all three teams capable of taking down the 2006 World Cup runners-up.

This group would also double as a Group of Death for Mexico. USMNT fans would be quite happy to see Mexico get this group after El Tri were given a very favorable draw in the 2006 World Cup (Portugal, Iran, Angola).


3. Best group for the USMNT: It’s no secret that hosts South Africa are the weakest team by far in the seeded pot (Pot 1), so Bob Bradley and company would love to find themselves in a group with Bafana Bafana. The Yanks will have good odds of returning to the knockout stage for the first time since their quarterfinal run in 2002 if they find themselves in the following group:

South Africa
Greece
USMNT
Uruguay

Despite the fact that South Africa will have their vuvuzela-wielding fans out in full force, the potential home-field advantage is outweighed by the fact that they have been fairly unimpressive for the last year or so. Their best performances of late were nothing more than moral victories, with two close losses to Brazil and Spain, while they have struggled in games against significantly lesser sides.


Greece, meanwhile, favor a strongly defensive style that would allow the US to control possession and the tempo of the game. The Greeks hardly looked impenetrable in their playoff with Ukraine and could very well have found themselves on the outside looking in if the Ukrainians were able to finish. Out of the last pot, Uruguay is probably the weakest team.


Overall, this group would be a dream come true for USMNT fans, and could very well happen if the US finds themselves in the hosts’ group. Never before has a host side failed to advance out of the group stage, and FIFA likely do not want that streak to end (insert conspiracy theory here). That would mean that South Africa’s group would likely be the easiest, giving them the best chance of moving on. So, come next Friday, pray that the US finds themselves alongside Carlos Parreira’s side.


With only a few exceptions (New Zealand, North Korea), almost all of the teams in South Africa next summer would provide the US with a solid test. Bring an end to all your worrying and tune in to ESPN2 on Friday at 12:00 PM ET to catch the draw live and see what exactly the USMNT will have to go up against next summer.