Friendlies against Slovakia and Denmark are coming up. While these are friendlies and a time for experimentation (injury forced or otherwise), there is something to be taken away from these matches; information on where the US stacks up against a different group of teams.
Recently, the US has played a number of games against teams that will likely end up in the seeded pot for the World Cup. Since the last World Cup, the US has played Brazil three times, Spain twice, Argentina twice, Italy once, England once, and South Africa once. With the exception of South Africa, the US would not be favored to beat any of these other countries. But they don’t have to. The seeded teams are seeded for a reason, they are expected to move through to the knockout rounds. During the Confederations Cup, the US showed that it was capable of winning a game against that type of quality if necessary, but the real battle is for second place.
In the same time period that the US has played nine matches against these five historic powers, they have played only two against the twelve teams that could be in the European pot for the World Cup. Those results were a 3-1 win over Denmark in the US and a 1-0 win over Switzerland in Switzerland. If there are strong performances in these next two friendlies, I would be tempted to call that a trend. But right now we have very little knowledge of how the US might compete with the non-elite teams of European soccer.
These matches will be a measuring stick for what might be the most important game for the US to advance to the knockout stage. In 2002, it was the victory over Portugal that was the key to advancing and a loss to Poland that almost eliminated them. In 2006 it was the first game loss to the Czech Republic that put the team in an early hole that it failed to dig out of.
With the pieces that are missing because of injury or obligation, I am not necessarily looking for wins from these games. For me, the key questions are 1) if Castillo is called in for and plays in the Denmark match does he look like he could be the answer at left back, 2) does any combination of strikers look dangerous together, 3) can the midfield can sustain possession when needed, support the attack, and cover when necessary?
If Castillo winds up being the answer at left back allowing Bocanegra to remain inside if Gooch or DeMerit have setbacks, I would be content with our backline situation. A dangerous strike pairing, relieves fear about finding Davies' replacement. But most importantly, if the US can win the midfield battle without Donovan or a defensive midfielder against teams of this quality, I like our chances for a full and healthy side to win matches in South Africa next summer. I don’t expect the US to win both of these matches. I would guess a win and a draw, but I would trade two losses for yes answers to all three questions.
