Three days. Three days until the US National Team learns their group-mates for the opening round of World Cup 2010. Three days until hand-wringing stage two begins. For some, three days until Bob Bradley's team's fate is sealed. Forget June: by Friday afternoon it will decided just how far the US will advance in the world's biggest sporting event.
Well, not really, though you wouldn't know it from some of the noise echoing around the American soccer community. It's all about the draw, we're told, with the implication being that a difficult group immediately, and without a ball being kicked, precludes the Americans from advancing to the knockout stages of the tournament.
It began back in October, when the US beat Honduras to qualify. Most reveled in the accomplishment, and the win away in Central America certainly made it more satisfying; but since qualification was never really in doubt and because the Americans would be heading to their sixth straight tournament, many (MANY) fans reverted to that oh-so-natural state of self-loathing with stern pronouncements of diminished expectations.
A group populated with three strong teams lowers the American chances of advancing, that much is not debatable. Injuries have weakened the team, and a Bob Bradley's job has become even more difficult. The projected procedure (though we don't yet know for sure) for the draw makes it likely the Americans will face a tough path to knockout football. Call it bleak, or call it the reality of international competition for a country that is still in the ascendancy; there are reasons to be down on American chances. But to dismiss any possibility of advancement is ridiculous and runs counter to the essence of being a fan. Why ruin the fun of it before the tournament even starts?
In the span of four years, the US performed at both ends of the expectation spectrum. In 2002 the Americans shocked most when they made a quarterfinal run on the strength of an upset over Portugal and a defeat of Mexico. In 2006 they fell flat on their faces with a draw and two losses, finishing last in their very difficult group. Perhaps it's because the worse of the two showings came more recently that general opinion is so down on American World Cup prospects, or perhaps its the uneven 2009 the team put in; no matter why, it depressing to see so many fans throw in the towel so early.
You're ruining it for the rest of us.
So on Friday, when the FIFA honchos get together in Cape Town to seal the fate of the USMNT seven months before the World Cup kicks off, remember that a little hope, or at the very least keeping your fatalistic viewpoint to yourself, is not such a bad thing.
Then again, if it's as bad as it could be, I might just join the pessimism parade.