The impending match-up between the United States and England, sixty years after the one and only other time they faced off in World Cup play, is a perfect excuse to take a look at the relative improvement of the two nations over that time. Though the US team was victorious on that fateful day in Belo Horizonte, Brazil, the disparity in the soccer level of the respective countries was such that the Americans would not again participate in the World Cup for forty years, while England would maintain their position as a leading world power (with a few hiccups along the way) up until the present day.


In the sixty years since their loss to the Americans, the English have won one World Cup (in 1966, on their home soil), been semifinalists one other time (1990), and finished an all-time best third in the European Championships on two occasions (1968, 1990). They remain one of the premier international sides in the world, and despite a few dark periods that saw them fail to qualify for major tournaments (most recently World Cup 1994 and Euro 2008), England is consistently a top ten team; handicapped by a relatively small population when compared to that of other traditional powers, their history and foundation in the game allows them to produce world-class players on a consistent basis.


But England hit their ceiling as a footballing nation a long time ago; always a contender for major tournament success, and perhaps capable of winning the World Cup again forty-four years after their only triumph, England is unlikely to improve in any given period of time any more than the chance coming together of a special group of players will allow. They've "found their level" so to speak, one they've occupied for most of the history of international soccer. Unfortunately for England, while they've remained stagnant in their world standing with perhaps a small amount of general improvement in the quality of their players, the rest of the world has caught up, and in some cases, passed them.


It doesn't matter how good you are, it matters how good you are in relation to the rest of the world.


The Americans, on the other hand, have come much farther than their British cousins in the sixty years since Brazil 1950. Despite those forty years of darkness, years in which the they not only did not qualify for the World Cup but often did not even field a team, the United States is now capable of playing with some of the world's best and holding their own. The true investment in international soccer on the part of the US is at roughly the twenty-five year mark, meaning that the Americans have come a vast distance farther than England since 1950 while actually using only half of that time.

That's not to say the US has anything on England. The reality of their progress is really only a function of how much more room for improvement the Americans had than the English; already a preeminent world power, England just didn't have anywhere to go. But for the US to reach their current level, one that allows them to believe they have a real chance to beat England in the World Cup next year and not have it be a "miracle", in the time they have done so is a significant achievement. If the US does upset England next year, and it would undoubtedly be a large upset, no one will see the scoreline and believe it to be a misprint, as the many of the English people did in 1950. If we attempted to graphically represent the rise of the US as an international soccer competitor in relation to the position of England since 1950 (which I suppose would be possible through FIFA or ELO rankings, but I don't believe that would really capture what I'm trying to present here), England would remain on a fairly straight line across the top of the graph while the US would flat line for several decades before rapidly climbing to a point several notches below their Anglo counterparts.


In the end, it doesn't really mean anything; England sits near the top of the mountain, a place where they simply materialized when they began to seriously compete on the international stage in the middle of the last century. The Americans are still climbing, and whether or not they have stopped somewhere mid-peak due to internal stagnation (a matter of opinion), they still have much more of the mountain above them than do the Three Lions.


Judging by almost every economic, demographic, and practical factor imaginable, the United States should be a world soccer leader in the not-too-distant future. The reasons that they're not yet there boil down to culture, history, and organization; instead of sharing a perch with England near the top, they remain an "up-and-comer", struggling along on the tough climb to true respectability (which, if the English media is any indicator, they have yet to obtain). Still, unless things go drastically wrong, there's really nowhere for the United States to go but up. The same can't be said for the English, sixty years on from their infamous loss to the Americans and really nowhere different.