Very shortly, we'll know in which direction American wunderkind Stuart Holden will take his nascent professional soccer career. Will he head to Europe now, ready to make his bones under the brighter lights of British or Continental football? Or will he choose to remain at home, ready to fully accept the mantle as Major League Soccer's young American star?
It seems like everyone has an opinion on the subject, and we here at MFUSA are no different. To best lay out the cases for each of Stu's options, Jason Davis and regular contributor Jason Kuenle went back and forth on what Holden should do and why he should do it.
Arguing for the MLS stay will be Jason Davis, while Jason Kuenle presents the reasons Stu should go.
Stuart Holden faces a difficult decision this month, having to choose between staying with the Houston Dynamo where his talent has developed, or flitting off to Europe, with its brighter lights and bigger paychecks. The league is making a solid push to keep him, including a massive raise (reported to be near non-DP max) and personal intervention by MLS Don Garber. Wrapped up in all of this is Holden's place in the 2010 USMNT World Cup team; stay, and he plays for sure, helping to make his case that a trip to, and major role in, South Africa should be his. For that reason, I'm advocating that Holden stay in the US and continue his promising career here. The money is nothing to sneeze at, and a young, talented player like Stu needs as much playing time as he can get. MLS is where he should be, at least for now.
As you suggest, his 2010 World Cup hopes are all about playing time. Between now and March, both the US' current starting wingers will be playing in England. In addition, with Beasley's last four games producing a goal, an assist, a PK earned, and two other goal setups, Beas will likely be seeing regular time somewhere in Europe this spring. Holden is no lock for South Africa even with regular playing time in MLS. With three wingers potentially ahead of him, and a few central midfielders playing in Europe sure to go, Holden is in a battle with Feilhaber, Torres, and other MLS options for those last few places in a crowded midfield. A move to Europe gives Holden an additional three months of meaningful playing time to set himself apart, if he signs with a team that is a good fit.
The additional possible time Holden might get is an advantage of moving to Europe; but there's no guarantee he'll play immediately, and I worry that instead of contributing in MLS, as he would from March to June, he'll be stuck on a bench or getting nothing but added time substitution appearances. That just won't cut it.
We can't discount the potential for Holden to become the new young American face of MLS, either; it's tough to tell a young talented player that he should shirk European glory for the good of the game in the US, but that's exactly what I'm going to do. MLS needs Stu, and he could have a much larger impact here than he could at a Scottish or bottom of the table Premier League team.
The possibility of a bad European move definitely exists, but Holden's move does not need to be perfect for it to be better than MLS. Barring injury to other US players, Holden will be a bench option for Bradley in South Africa. Meaning that being 90 minutes fit is not the highest priority for him. I would consider his latching onto a team where he splits starts or is regularly the first option off the bench a successful move.
For his long term prospects, I wonder how short of a contract MLS will agree to. I'll take what you said a bit further; MLS needs Stu more than Stu needs MLS. If this large MLS contract is their standard two years plus two option years, Holden would be at the mercy of MLS for another four years. We've seen this with guys like Donovan and Shalrie Joseph, players that eventually outgrow MLS, but are contractually bound. Holden has all the leverage in this situation, so maybe he can ink a one or two year deal, but I dread having this same conversation when he's 28 and we're preparing for the 2014 World Cup.
The contract he signs with MLS, if he does decide to stay, is absolutely key. You're right that the league needs him more than he needs the league, but remember that my argument for him to stay is only based on this World Cup; I'd agree that he can ill afford to sign a typical MLS contract, and should do everything he can to force better terms. When 2010 is over, and Stu is coming off of what I expect will be a good showing at the World Cup and another MLS Best XI type club campaign (provided he stays, of course), I would be disappointed to find him locked into a four year stay here.
As much as a foregone conclusion Holden's World Cup spot seems now, there's always a chance for things to change. If DaMarcus Beasley, a left footed option where the US has few, plays his way back into the team, what might that mean for Holden? In that case, getting as much playing time, first team and 90 minutes, as possible is massive. The only way to guarantee that, even if he's not playing at all until March because of the off-season, is to stay with the Dynamo.
Granted, the only way to guarantee it is to stay with the Dynamo, but there are some options that are not far from a guarantee and would get him into a more fluid player market. Aberdeen, while not the sexiest of clubs, may be the option that satisfies both. As his family's home, there would be little adjustment. They've been averaging less than a goal per game, so they definitely need the offensive help. They're squarely midtable, so there's no additional pressure to perform (besides making the WC team, pressure he would have in Houston as well). And because they would not need to recover a huge transfer fee, with a good few months for the club and a good World Cup, Aberdeen would have him up on for auction during the summer transfer window or he will have led them to at least a Europa Cup spot. Yes, the money might not be as good, club officials have said as much, but this could amount to a six month loan to get playing time and exposure. Looking past this World Cup, Holden's options after this move are key. I think he's more likely to get better transfer offers going forward out of a club like Aberdeen than out of MLS.
If comfort is the thing, then Houston wins. Aberdeen may be his family's ancestral home, but Texas is where they reside now. Dominic Kinnear knows Holden, knows how to use Holden, and knows how to foster the confidence he will need to be at his best come June. There's nothing wrong with Abedeen from the angle you're taking, but if the only goal is to potentially move on in the summer, then Holden's priorities aren't within the framework of my argument. The caveat for me, as we've mentioned, is that he not get handcuffed by a long or option-laden contract; if he can work out a deal with MLS to sign for a year and move on next January, then he's maintained control of his future while guaranteeing himself a starting role and playing time during the World Cup run-up. If Holden's focus is primarily on his European career right now, there's really nothing MLS can do because their offer won't compare to those from abroad.
This decision, with all the parameters you and I have outlined, is really nothing more than the flip of a coin. If everything goes perfectly, as you've described it (go to a place like Aderdeen, play, and move on in the summer to a bigger club), then he absolutely should go. But with something as important as this, my gut says he should choose the known over the unknown. In Houston, he WILL play, he WILL be comfortable in his surroundings, and he WILL be as ready as he can be for the World Cup in June.
I agree it is a coin flip. I think we've outlined three general possibilities here: a successful move to Europe, a bad move to Europe, and staying in MLS. As long as Holden can get a contract that does not limit his future growth, MLS is the safe option. A successful move to Europe is better and a bad move to Europe is worse than being in MLS for another season or two. But any move to Europe is a crap shoot. While some European options might look safer than others, there is nothing as sure as Houston. From a fan prospective, it's easy to want to see Holden roll the dice. If he doesn't make it, the talent pool exists to fill his place. But from Stu's vantage point, if the offer from Houston is right, I can't fault him for taking it.
There you have it. It's easy to see why Stuart Holden might be agonizing over what very might well be the most important decision of his career.
So who do you side with? Play-it-safe Jason Davis, or seize-the-moment Jason Kuenle?
