First, in the interest of full disclosure, let me admit that I may have written something extremely similar to this the last time the USMNT headed to a hostile environment to face off against an opponent they had never defeated on the road.

If I repeat myself, it's because the situations are so frustratingly alike.

The last time, it was Costa Rica. The United States was heading to Saprissa, with it's abomination of a football pitch, to take on the Ticos. We, as fans, believed that the Americans could finally slay the dragon and earn a victory; some of that was blind faith, some of it overconfidence, and some of it the simple belief that the US should beat Costa Rica, no matter where the game is played.

My how wrong we were.

This time around, I would like to think that we're just a little smarter; we won't discount the history, and we'll be sure to mute our over-exuberant assertions that a victory is in the cards.

But what fun is that?

How, as passionate and invested fans, can we sit back and defer to better judgement? If we're not going to be allowed to show confidence in our team, doesn't that suck some of the enjoyment out of the anticipation and buildup?

I'm a positive guy for the most part, and I usually like to believe that the best is possible. Being pessimistic seems like the lazy way out in this situation; if the US loses, those who gave them no chance get to crow that they got it right. Taking the chance that they might actually win can smack of blind homerism, I admit; but if done right, and talked about with the proper respect for the negative, predicting a victory actually takes more guts.

Kinda.

It's such a touchy issue. I refuse to let my faith get lost in the negative swirl of all that comes with a match at Azteca, and yet I realize just how improbable a victory tomorrow actually is. Several factors have conspired to cause some of us to lose sight of what happened in Costa Rica, and here we sit, ready to call an American victory despite mountains of evidence that says it truly is a 100-1 shot.

The United States beat Spain, the number one team in the world

Makes it tough to believe they're not capable of beating the 30th ranked team, now doesn't it?

Bob Bradley has stumbled upon a solid defensive lineup

Thanks to the South African sojourn, most USMNT fans believe that the defense is much better than it was in Costa Rica. Either Bob Bradley figured something out through trial and error (i.e. solid coaching), or he stumbled upon the best possible combination through sheer luck; no matter how you look at it, it would seem that the defense, if they play up to the standard they set against Egypt, Spain, and the first half of the final, gives the Americans a real chance in Mexico City.

On paper, that is. And we all know that games aren't played on paper.

There's just too many ifs for me to be completely comfortable (which isn't really possible anyway) with our chances.

If the back line plays like they did in South Africa
If the midfield can control the ball for extended periods
If no one loses their head and gets a stupid red card
If Donovan's current league form carries over

If, if, if.

And I haven't even gotten to those pesky external factors that have nothing to do with "if". They're certainties, and they kind of certainties that contribute to the record Mexico has at Estadio Azteca. Forty-three years, one loss.

ONE.

Massive crowd, smog, altitude, items being thrown, etc., etc., etc. Add it all up and it spells another disappointing trip to the DF for the USA.

And yet, many of us still believe that they boys can win tomorrow. Some are even giving lip service to those ifs and certainties, acknowledging that the deck is once again stacked against the Yanks. "Discounting" might be the wrong word this time around, but when the net effect is the same, what difference does it really make? American fans are still, in large numbers, predicting a historical victory.

Good for them. Far be it for me to rain on their parade. If the US does somehow escape Mexico with three points, they get to scream from the rafters that they believed all along. If the US comes home with nothing, a result we're all too familiar with, then all they've done is supported their national team as any good American soccer fan is supposed to do.

Dos a cero? We can only hope.

Me, I'm a fence sitter. I'm calling it a draw, 2-2.