The buildup to the English Premier League season, at least in the past few years, always includes a discussion about a potential shakeup in the top four places. Manchester United, Liverpool, Chelsea and Arsenal hold a death grip on those coveted Champions League positions thanks to big time money, and dreams of a change (at least for fans of clubs outside of the Big Four) dance in our heads.
Can Everton really challenge? Is Villa strong enough to last the full season? Will Manchester City's new money leapfrog them over Arsenal?
No matter the chatter, the idea of a top four shakeup continues to be just that, an idea. As Villa proved last year, the squad depth and wherewithal needed to jump ahead of the clubs with the deepest pockets and a track record of success is no mean feat; for every club that "threatens" to breakthrough, there are always hazards and hurdles that make the reality of the jump a near impossible task.
There won't be a shakeup in the top four this year either. At least it doesn't appear that way from where I'm sitting, and as a fan of none of the clubs at the top of the table year in and year out, I have no rooting interest in seeing the domination continue. If fact, I'm desperate for another club to rise into the top tier and end the monotony. It's no fun when the table is so predictable that a full fifth of it can be written out before the season even begins.
Things will change beyond the top four this year, of course, because the clubs below the Champions League spots are not so disparate in talent that a few breaks here and there can't make a massive difference. An injury or two, a fluke goal here and there, perhaps even the emergence of a player not expected to make a massive difference; all those things are likely to affect the standing from fifth to fifteenth.
For the two clubs that threatened the Big Four last year, as well as the one that surprised many by finishing seventh and earning themselves European football, 2009-2010 looks like it may be a significantly different campaign.
Fulham
To be fair, it's not much of a stretch to suppose that Fulham is unlikely to hit the same heights again this year, and they aren't in any way a threat to the top four. A smaller Premier League club with less resources than even their second-tier brethren (and as relegation candidates in previous years, it's probably not accurate to call them "second tier"), Fulham will find themselves seriously tested by competing in both England and Europe. A boon because of the money involved and the attention it brings, the Europa League could be a double-edged sword for the Cottagers. Simply being spread too thin may do them in, resulting in another clubs vaulting themselves in to Fulham's former finish. Ending up mid-table and safe of relegation would be acceptable for them, of course, so the push required for another top seven finish is probably not coming.
Aston Villa
There's much more to say about Aston Villa. The Villans are off to a terrible start, with a difficult test away at Anfield looming tomorrow. Martin O'Neill's sway over his club may be waning, the important John Carew is rumored to be on the outs with the Northern Irishman, and last year's disappointing home form has followed them into this season. That's not a recipe for success, and even a top-half finish might be a struggle. From top four challenger to mid-table also ran is a mighty drop, but fits the reality of Villa's place in the Premier League hierarchy. Having played less matches (as of this writing, they've only played one) than anyone else makes it difficult to assess Villa, but their midweek loss to Rapid Vienna in the Europa League doesn't change the perception that this season might be a comedown.
Everton
If Villa's start has been poor, then Everton's has been disastrous. Thumped at home by Arsenal in the first week of the season, the Toffees today fell pray to the same promoted Burnley team that shocked Manchester United in middweek. Everton has had injury issues and transfer talk distracting them, and hasn't proven that they can play through those concerns. That being said, Everton is the best equipped club in this group to turn things around and finish similarly to the way they did last year; it will David Moyes' best effort, and they desperately need a victory in their next league match against Wigan at Goodison Park they're to have any real chance of repeating their 2008-2009 finish. More than a matter of points, a victory is a matter reversing negative momentum.
Until it actually happens, a the dethroning of any of the Big Four seems like a pipe dream. Anything can happen in sport, and it's certainly possible that this is the year; but if so, someone else is going to have to make a run. Maybe Manchester City actually can sustain their early start with their diamond-encrusted lineup and make a serious run at the Champions League; they may have to be the ones, because the likelihood that last years challengers can seriously push again looks more and more unlikely.
There will be a shakeup, it just won't be the one some many are hoping to see.
As you can see, I continue to spread my wings here, and will be sprinkling in more pieces like this going forward. I'm also hoping to add even more writers, both on American subjects and foreign ones, so if you would like to write for the site, please drop me an email: matchfitusa@gmail.com.
