"Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me."
The San Jose Earthquakes, the only MLS franchise to be "reborn" after the original version of the club was relocated to Houston, is in a tough spot. Owner Lew Wolff is struggling to get a stadium project off the ground, has seemingly overestimated the city as a soccer market, and is lashing out at fans in the press.
When the league awarded an expansion franchise to Wolff in 2005 to fill the void created by the relocation of the original team to Houston, a jaundiced eye or two were pointing in Don Garber's direction. Despite the big money Wolff as owner, many questioned the wisdom of granting a team to a city that had already proven once their inability to get a proper stadium built for the club.
Wolff assuming allayed the league's fear by convincing the owners back in 2007 that he'd be able to get the deal done. AEG had pulled out in frustration, but as owner of the A's and a real estate maven, perhaps the league believed Wolff had the wherewithal to give San Francisco Bay Area professional soccer a fitting venue. Major League Soccer's anxiousness to return to the Bay Area, a hotbed for the sport in the US, brings us to today; Wolff's stadium efforts have stonewalled, the team is one of the worst in MLS, and there future is looking bleak once again.
Hindsight is always crystal clear, and the bet here is that Garber and Co. are kicking themselves over the decision to rescind the "no stadium, no team" policy, at least in the case of the Wolff and the Earthquakes. Without a concrete stadium plan, San Jose will continue to be stuck in the ill-suited and entirely too small Buck Shaw Stadium, a venue that team does not control and the league cannot be happy with. Despite original plans to "barnstorm" around the San Francisco area, the club has settled into a rotation of the aforementioned Buck Shaw and Oakland's Coliseum, used when the club has "big" matches that are certain to attract larger crowds.
What to do? Should the league take another hit, admit defeat in San Jose (again), and move the club to another market? St. Louis seems to have more stadium plans than they know what to do with, and would certainly welcome the club with open arms. Should MLS stick it out and hope that Wolff is able to finally secure the money necessary to break ground on a facility? The only problem there is that the owner's plans aren't exactly for a soccer palace; what was to be a step-up from a purely-functional no-fills facility and seat 18k is now slated to be a bare-bones 15k seater with zero amenities. If having a dedicated stadium for the Earthquakes is the only goal, I suppose that will do; but with other venues like Rio Tinto and Red Bull Arena opening, an austere and smallish stadium would looks terrible by contrast.
The Earthquakes have dedicated fans. They manage to fill up, or close to it, Buck Shaw Stadium for the majority of home games. While the excitement over the team's return hasn't met Lew Wolff's expectations, that doesn't mean that San Jose and the Bay Area is not a worthwhile market for MLS. But for the time being, while the league focuses its attention on new and excited fan bases in cities like Toronto and Seattle with high hopes for Vancouver, and Portland, San Jose's small crowds and undetermined future make it an obvious candidate for relocation.
Moving the team would take some serious pride-swallowing on the part of MLS. Wolff's protestations over the club's relative lack of popularity and his frustrations over the stadium deal give the impression that he might be happy to get out of the league. MLS knows it has willing parties in a couple of cities, and finding a buyer shouldn't be too difficult. But will Garber and the decision makers admit defeat for a second time in San Jose, thereby shining a light directly on their folly to return to the city in the first place?
It's likely not gotten that far. I can't see the Quakes moving anytime soon, but the question of their future is worth asking. MLS can't afford to leave clubs struggling in markets without viable stadium futures (other than the New England Revolution), and after Garber's comments/threats regarding DC United earlier this year, we know that no team is untouchable. With a shaky recent history, and "failure" already on the resume, San Jose could be staring at the prospect of losing another Major League Soccer franchise.
