Reassessing the Inevitable

Friday, February 20, 2009 | View Comments
Tim Leiweke is an angry man. Recent comments from AC Milan vice-president Adriano Galliani that AC Milan are "close" to acquiring David Beckham have the AEG executive in quite a tizzy, something that might quickly lead to a Michael Douglas in "Falling Down" situation.

"We are not close. Two weeks ago Milan made a ridiculous offer ($3m or £2.1m) to which I replied 'no' in a few seconds. With that figure, Galaxy don't even cover the damages deriving from the shortfalls of not selling his shirts. Since then, no-one has made any moves. There are no meetings arranged."

It seems clear, at this point, that Mr. Leiweke is taking these negotiations rather personally. While he has said all the proper diplomatic things about Beckham himself, his pointed words in the direction of AC Milan are thick with vitriol. I'm rapidly reassessing my belief that a transfer deal is inevitable, largely due to Leiweke's disposition. In a perfet world, these negotiations would be strictly business, done in the best interests of both clubs, without emotion becoming a relevant factor. From an outsider's viewpoint, I think it would be hard to argue that emotion isn't currently playing a role. I'm not sure if we can rake Leiweke over the coals for getting a little worked up or not; those who believe Milan is attempting to perpetrate a grab-and-dash might be on the Galaxy exec's side, while those sick of the Beckham circus and ready to cut bait on a player who has seemingly betrayed the American soccer public's trust will want a deal to be made no matter the potential inequity of the deal.

"After that ridiculous offer, Milan have not done anything. They have tried other people, from the commissioner of the league (Major League Soccer Commissioner Don Garber) to David's representatives, but not us, who own his rights."

Perhaps Leiweke, and those angered by Milan's snobbery, should cut the Italian club a little slack. I know I'm often confused by the MLS single-entity structure, so what's the say that Milan have a grasp on who exactly they should be contacting?

I'm kidding, of course. If we take Leiweke's claim at face value, then we have to assume that Milan is attempting to go over the Galaxy's head. Ridiculous. No matter the structure of MLS, Milan has to know that any deal must be made with the team first; even if the league's approval is required to finalize the transfer, Milan should know they can't just ignore step one and go directly to step two.

"If David doesn't return, who will replace him? Our transfer market is already closed. If Milan are so determined to keep him, why are they taking so long? Do they think that we will settle for less money? They are mistaken."

I'm not really sure what game Milan is playing (again, taking Leiweke's statements at face value for the sake of argument). The only conclusion I can come to is that they've painted themselves in a corner, spouted off about obtaining Beckham while underestimating the cost, and now are regretting the entire debacle. If they overplayed their hand based on the belief that Beckham would come at a significant discount simply because he can extricate himself from his MLS deal, then they've underestimated the financial and public relations value of the midfielder in the American market.

"What Milan don't understand is that behind this story, there are fans that are renouncing subscriptions, sponsors that want damages and rival teams that have the right to know if the Galaxy will play at their stadium with or without Beckham."

Maybe it's all just posturing. Maybe there is a deal on the horizon, one that gets closer to the Galaxy's asking price. Maybe I'll post this analysis, only to be proved wrong today when the news hits that the deal is done, that Beckham will remain in Milan, that the saga is over and the blogosphere will have to move on to the next overblown topic (expansion anyone?).

But I'm not so sure. I think it's increasingly possible that there is no deal imminent. The "unhappy player" card, used by every agent and club to swing the transfer game in their favor, only goes so far. When a team and a league have as much invested in one player as the Galaxy and MLS do in Beckham, that "unhappy player" card loses some of it's resonance. There is truly no precedent for this situation, one in which the actual abilities of the player in question could be called a secondary concern for one of the parties at the negotiation table.

"David is a friend and asked me to listen to what Milan proposed. I have said yes, because of him. But I will not be taken for a ride and hence, on 9 March, Beckham will be in Los Angeles and will work with the same seriousness and dedication as before."

I'm not saying you should start making your "Beckham = Traitor" (or hopefully something more clever) signs for your club's home date with the Galaxy quite yet, but do think it wouldn't be a bad idea to go ahead and buy the markers and posterboard.

I base all of this on nothing but a gut feeling. I have no idea how things will actually play out, I just think the anger on the side of the Galaxy shouldn't be underestimated.
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