To say that fans of the United States National Team are supremely confident heading into next week's World Cup qualifier with Mexico might be a bit of an understatement; an eight year winning streak on American soil can do that for a fan base. Add that recent record of home dominance to the fact that Mexico comes into the match seemingly off-kilter, and American fans may already be planning post-match celebrations.
There are no indications that this over-confidence on the part of the supporters is unjustified; it's hard for many of them to envision Mexico winning a match inside American borders in front of what should be a very vocal, very pro-USA, crowd. That being said, it's clear that Mexico is capable of beating the US, and any shock resulting from a defeat at El Tri's hands would come only from its unfamiliar nature.
So, what if Mexico wins? I don't mean that in the dismissive sense; note the comma. I mean, literally, what if Mexico wins? What will be the fallout? Should any changes be made? Or does the USMNT simply charge ahead, play out what is still likely to be a successful qualifying campaign, and roll the dice in both the Gold and Confederations Cups?
Even if the Mexicans are triumphant in Columbus, there is unlikely to be any repercussions for Bob Bradley, the player pool, or the team structure as it is currently constituted. While Sven-Goran Eriksson's job is certainly in jeopardy (because the Mexico manager's job is always in jeopardy) and he may be forced to manage his team with that fact in mind, Bradley can forge ahead with a grander scheme, comfortable that his position is safe no matter the outcome. Bradley has behind him a strong enough record as the US manager that it would be difficult for Sunil Gulati and the USSF to justify making a change in the midst of the qualification cycle, even if Bradley is at the helm when the remarkable home winning-streak against Mexico is snapped. Additionally, any manager that might be available to the US, as well as amenable to taking the job, could hardly be considered a major upgrade over Bradley. Unfortunately for many who wished it had been him instead, Juergen Klinsmann is tied up at the moment.
If Bradley stays, then his system stays. Without a major shake up at the top, we shouldn't expect any change to the style of play, or the way the team goes about its business. A terrible performance by a player or two could conceivably lead to less-seasoned talent getting a shot; but with young players like Kljestan and Altidore already expected to feature in future hexagonal matches, it would be difficult to determine if any changes were the direct result of a loss to Mexico.
If the Americans do lose, what should be the ramifications? While I wouldn't advocate that Bradley be fired, and I don't want the United States manager's job to be the musical chairs situation that exists in Mexico and other countries, I will say that the heat applied to those in charge of the National Team by the soccer media has never been quite enough. It's not that those who write about the game here aren't critical; it's simply that there aren't enough of them to engender any appreciable reaction. Leadership is allowed to operate free of concern, without the pressure that their peers around the world are forced to cope with on a daily basis. Everyone involved wants to build a winner, and I'm not questioning Bradley or Gulati's desire to do so; I just believe that without the type of oversight we give to coaches and executives in other sports, they are free to grow complacent.
For the American supporters, losing to Mexico inside the US would much more catastrophic. Gone would be their ability to crow to Mexico fans that they simply can't win in this country, and the argument for American predominance in the region would take a serious hit. Not only would bragging rights be lost, but Mexico would have three points in hand to take with them on the rest of their qualifying campaign. While I'm of the opinion that Mexico qualifying for the World Cup benefits the region, and therefore the US, I'm not sure the majority of American supporters agree with me, so those three out-of-the-blocks points in Mexico's column would only make the loss that much more difficult to swallow.
I certainly don't expect a loss on Wednesday, and I know that few Nats fans do; but it's interesting to think about what could (and should) conceivably happen if Mexico does win in the US for the first time since '99. Shake ups occur when results are not consistent with expectations, and American soccer fans have come to expect victory over Mexico when the match take place in the United States. If the team, and the manager, fail in those expectations, I suspect there would be quite a backlash in the National Team's fan base.
None of this matters, of course. When Wednesday rolls around, and the rivalry is renewed once again, the result is likely to be the one to which we've become accustomed. The USA just doesn't lose to Mexico on American soil, so why would this time be any different?
