David Beckham won't be playing soccer for the foreseeable future. It's very possible he won't be playing soccer, at least professionally, ever again. At the very least, Beckham is faced with a long recovery, a slim chance of appearing late in the MLS season, or a 2011 return.
As Jamie Trecker and others have pointed out, this leaves Major League Soccer in a difficult position from a marketing standpoint; even if Beckham, or the architects of the Beckham plan, failed in the goal of pushing the sport into the American mainstream, he did have some effect on both attendance and merchandise sales.
The question now becomes, is it necessary to replace Beckham as MLS' marquee recognizable player?
Whether you choose to term Beckham's influence on MLS and its fortunes a "success" or a "failure", it's impossible to deny that there was some positive benefit. Beckham was the nitrous oxide to an engine that has slowly been building speed over time; his appearance on the scene bolstered attendances (though this has since dropped off dramatically), sold jerseys, and put the league in the public eye both here and abroad on a much larger scale.
A ready-made replacement for Beckham's role in the MLS business model has already been linked to the league: Thierry Henry. Though Henry is well down the celebrity food chain, at least in the United States, he would bring a footballing cache that Beckham struggled to due to injury and a single-minded focus on making the England World Cup team. The drop off from the Englishman to the Frenchman would be significant, but replacing even 50% of Beckham's influence is better than replacing none.
Henry may have been on his way to MLS eventually regardless of Beckham's presence. The rumors of his signing with New York surfaced because Henry has an affinity for the country and that city, and because the Red Bulls need to make a splash in their market. But the imperative to sign Henry, if MLS feels it necessary to fill the gap left by Beckham's injury, has multiplied dramatically in the last twenty-four hours.
We can debate the merits of the DP rule, and we can argue about the wisdom of signing ultra-expensive talent when much of the league makes less than the average accountant; but MLS made their superstar bed three years ago when the Beckham experiment began, and may be loathe to go back to their former condition, where a truly marketable name was wanting.
Henry will sell jerseys, put a few more butts in the seats on the road, and do the flashy work of scoring goals when Beckham could not. From a strictly business perspective, he might even be an upgrade (depending on the salary, of course).
