Finally, Major League Soccer returns tomorrow night in Seattle, with a full slate of matches to follow this weekend. I'm buzzing with excitement, and plan to take in every possible minute of action I can manage (provide MLS gets their act together on their Match Center streaming video service).
But outside of the actual play on the field, who's good, who's not, which new players make a difference for their clubs, and which head coaches seem to have a grasp on their teams early in the year, I'll be paying attention to something else: attendance.
Opening weekend should be an attendance winner. Clubs have had all off-season to pump awareness of their product into their communities, and though this year's CBA melodrama may have hampered some efforts, a properly marketed club should have no problem getting a sellout or close to it.
A big average number would be nice, but I'm much more interested in how the games do in terms of percent of capacity; with two tiny stadiums in the mix and Seattle on the other end, that's the truer indication of success.
We know Seattle will have in excess of 30k, selling out the seats they make available in the 60k+ capacity Qwest Field. New York will sellout for their opener in their brand new arena against Chicago. Kansas City should have no problem filling their tiny stadium, with just over 10k in attendance, and I would hope San Jose can do the same. If we're being optimistic, that's four clubs with one hundred percent capacity.
After that, there are some questions.
Columbus, despite the quality of their team, continues to come up short at the gate. Last year's opener drew just over 14k in a 20k capacity stadium (70%). That's not terrible, but keep in mind that none of the TFC supporters groups are organizing away support for the match. How will that affect things? I'm not sure, but I don't know that there's any indication that Crew fans will make up the difference. That's disheartening considering that Columbus will once again be contenders for the title this season.
Both LA and Chivas did better than the Crew in terms of raw numbers for their '09 openers, but each came up short of the percentage of seats Columbus filled. Will they do better this year? I'm not sure there's any way to tell, though Donovan's return as a conquering hero from England might help LA.
That brings us, unfortunately, to FC Dallas. Pizza Hut Park is a beautiful place to watch a soccer match that is simply too far removed from the population center of the area. Dallas drew 15k for their opener in 2008, their best crowd of the season (throwing out a Cotton Bowl crowd for a doubleheader that included Mexico); from the rumblings out of Texas (rumors, to be clear), it sounds like they'll be supremely lucky to get half of that on Saturday, despite a weather forecast of 76 degrees and partly sunny. If FCD does draw as poorly as some think they will, they'll have moved beyond a simple concern to a major problem; no club with a consistent history in a market and soccer-specific stadium should come up short of 10k in their first match of the season, when record has no bearing.
I'm sure you don't need me to point out the common element shared by Columbus and FC Dallas, two teams that struggle to draw consistent crowds despite built-in advantages. Pizza Hut Park's suburban location doesn't fully excuse FC Dallas' issues, while any club with the success of Columbus over the past few seasons should simply do better in the stands. After each of their openers I'll be particularly curious to see how many fans showed up.
Attendance on opening weekend is guaranteed to be better this season than last for the simple reason that there's one more match on the schedule. But the more interesting measure of how much MLS was affected by the CBA uncertainty will be seen in Columbus, LA, and Dallas, where there is no buzz over a new stadium (New York), track record of massive sellouts in an expansion market (Seattle), or tiny stadium that obscures the real level of attention on the local team (Kansas City and San Jose).
For reference, here's 2009's opening weekend attendance from MLS Daily.
