We've said it before, multiple times as a matter a fact, and it has never really been true. But we are finally in the homestretch/crunch time/tipping point on the MLS CBA negotiations. The time for the Players to put up or shut up is rapidly approaching, and after last week's news that the membership has near-unanimously authorized their negotiating committee to call a strike, opinion seems to be that a work stoppage is inevitable.


But I'm still not convinced.


Viewing the situation with a skeptical eye, meaning that I take little of what either side says at face value leads me to only one conclusion: the Players are pulling their last bit of leverage and bluffing the owners with everything they've got.


I don't think they'll strike.


I have no insider knowledge, nor do I claim to have a unique insight or expertise that gives me a window into the Players' motives; I just have my observations, my sense that the nuclear option is always the hardest to pull off, and a naive belief that although the Players seem prepared to go to the wall for their principles, they know they have little to gain through an actual strike.


Buzz Carrick at the 3rd Degree laid out the reasons he believes a strike would fail, and I'm with him one hundred percent. There's simply too much that could go wrong, an unacceptable possibility that large numbers of players would cross the picket line, and too remote a chance that the strike would have any real effectiveness. The owners are dug in, remain in the position of financial strength in opposition to the collective weakness of the Players, and appear unlikely to give up anything voluntarily at this juncture.


I'm prepared to eat crow on this prediction. The deadline for a deal to get done before play starts, and before thousands of fans have their First Kick plans wrecked, it rapidly approaching. If and when the Players press the big red button and blow things up, I'll understand even as I view it as a gross miscalculation. For me, striking simply as a show of force and to set a precedent that could serve them well down the road does not merit the action. It's akin cutting yourself off at the knees in order to give yourself a chance to one day afford a nicer hat.


Terrible analogies aside, my conviction on this comes from an appreciation of what the Players have done to this point. They knew all along when their drop dead date would come. Butting up as close to the actual start of the season as possible would provide them with their greatest amount of leverage short of an actual walkout. Reasonable people, who appreciate their situation and can think beyond defending principle alone, should realize the martyrdom is a fool's errand. If there is a worthwhile positive to be gained from a strike, it's imperceptible to me. The leverage just isn't enough to move the owners, making it no real leverage at all.


Call me when the MLSPU calls the strike. Until then, I can only go on my gut, and it's telling me it won't happen.