Throughout this week, I’ve spent a lot of time analyzing the past and present; beginning with a historical look at the USMNT through rankings and qualification cycles and moving to the current player pool. Today, I’ll focus on what I see as the trends and make a few predictions along with way.
The World Cup
The most immediate future for the USMNT is the World Cup. The table below uses the numbers from Tuesday’s post for Group C participants to project the number of points that should be earned by each team. Using the projected points as a guide, I assembled records that would most closely duplicate that finish.
| Country | Statistical Projection | Record | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| England | 6.792 | 2-1-0 | 7 |
| USA | 5.049 | 1-2-0 | 5 |
| Slovenia | 2.886 | 1-0-2 | 3 |
| Algeria | 2.400 | 0-1-2 | 1 |
To achieve this result, the US would draw England, beat Slovenia, and finally draw Algeria. If things proceed as planned in Group D, this would mean a match in the Round of 16 versus Germany. Statistically, the US is unlikely to move past this round with Germany as the opponent. However, if any of the other countries win Group D, the odds of US advancement to the quarterfinals would increase substantially.
As noted yesterday, the ability of a tier two team to beat a tier one team is highly dependent on the play of the team’s best players. As seen against Spain and Brazil in the final last summer, Donovan and Dempsey can be brilliant. If these two can consistently play like 10s, it gives the US the last piece of the puzzle to make a deeper run into the World Cup. If they can’t, like against Netherlands when Dempsey was out and Donovan ineffective, the US is just short of being competitive against these top quality sides. Exceptional play from these two players and a little luck along the way is all that would be necessary for the US to make it back into the quarterfinals.
...And Beyond
Using the trend line from Monday’s analysis, the US’ trend will reach the top ten during the summer of 2013. Depending on timing and FIFA rules, this could put the US in a position to grab an elusive seed in the World Cup. With Brazil receiving the automatic qualification spot, the top eight teams in the world figure to be seeded. A seed means an easier group and an easier path to the quarterfinals. A look at the current pool of players shows that the US player pool may change enough between now and then to fulfill the trend line’s prophecy.
Multiple players playing deep into European club tournaments is not yet a yearly occurrence for Americans, but it is getting closer. Replicating the gains that have been made and getting the results against top 10 teams expected from a team that has a solid foundation of growing stars is the first step. Edu’s Rangers, Onyewu’s Milan, and Kljestan’s rumored new club Anderlecht are qualified for the Champions League. Adu and possibly Johnson will be with Aris for their Europa League run, joining Parkhurst (Nordsjælland), Guzan and Lichaj (Aston Villa). Teenagers Mikkel Diskerud and Erik Benjaminsen are with Europa entrants Stabaek.
A strong performance in the World Cup would likely set off a number of club moves involving US players. At the older end of the spectrum, Beasley, Donovan, and Dempsey will all be 31 or 32 in 2014 but with moves this summer could all find themselves on clubs capable of regularly making the Champions League or Europa League Knockout Rounds. Outside the World Cup roster, Pearce has been linked to a move to Champions League participant, Bursaspor and rumors persist about Robbie Rogers making a move possibly to Netherlands when his contract is up at the end of this year.
In Edu, Bradley, and Torres, the US has a trio of current 8s in the central midfield all of whom should be in their primes in 2014. At Rangers, Edu is already at a club capable of regular European play while rumors involving club interest in Bradley and Torres occurs frequently and could come to a head with solid performances this summer.
I expect Villareal to sell Giuseppe Rossi this summer and Jozy’s maturation in the EPL this year may find him battling for a roster spot for the Spanish club this summer. If he stays, his minutes may be limited this year, but eventually breaking into a starting lineup in Spain would give Altidore fantastic experience before the next World Cup. Davies’ Sochaux has been nearly average in defense this year, but very poor at finding the back of the net. His club situation should give him some stability if he can prove that he can once again play at a high level.
On the domestic front, MLS will need to continue to grow. A sign of this will be their competitiveness in the CONCACAF Champions League. I expect LA, Columbus, Real Salt Lake, and a N’Kufo infused Seattle to all be competitive. Add in an improving Toronto side, and with five teams capable of making the quarterfinals, getting a team through to the semis for the first time seems like a distinct possibility.
Of course, there will be young players who rise to compete for positions, especially in an aging US backline, so it is hard to imagine that the average US player rating will not increase over the next four years. It also seems likely that a US player or two will find a starting spot for a team playing in the Champions League knockout stage and consistently hold that 10 rating. Assuming the US maintains its strong record against weaker opponents, this foreseeable lift would give them all the pieces to sustain a position in the top ten by 2014.
A World Power?
The US has got a long way to go before it will be recognized as a world power. Yet, a confluence of events sets a reasonable date for this in the future; 2022. The trend line at that point would project a ranking around 5. A top five team and a home World Cup would put the US in position to be a real threat to compete for the championship. A lot would need to happen to get to that point, the first is being the winning bid to host the World Cup. We will know if this happens late this year.
The players who will make an impact in that 2022 World Cup are developing as youth players right now. An entering high school freshman determining whether to play soccer or football this summer will be 26, and in the prime of his career, at the 2022 World Cup. A successful World Cup this year, a successful and growing MLS, and a growing population of kids that choose soccer over other sports will all be good signs that the future of US soccer will be very bright.
