Does this U.S. team suffer from lack of confidence? After two matches and two points, they're at this very moment preparing themselves to take the field against Algeria with their World Cup lives on the line. If they're not ready now, when will they ever be?
But we've been here before. The Americans have headed into their final group stage match with everything there for them and come up small. Just last week they had a chance to seize their tournament destiny by the scruff of the neck and waited until they were 0-2 before the responded. The comeback was great, and there's an argument to be made that they should have won the game, but their disastrous first half is surely an indication of a problem. They simply can't afford a flat start today.
Bettors love trends. Today's applicable trend, at least from the American side of thing, is that the U.S. falls short in must win World Cup games (historically) and falls behind early (this tournament). Neither is a harbinger of good things; managing to earn a draw after being in the losing position most of the match is a positive, but it's hardly a forceful one. Silver linings exist, but it's depressing that we even need to look for them. Mental focus is the only explanation for the historical trend of failing in their third group game, and we've already seen evidence of early lack of focus in South Africa. Without overt reasons to believe they've fixed this little problem, I'm going to have to go on faith.
I'm hopeful today. I think they'll be ready, and I have no reason to believe that the second half of the Slovenia match won't carry over to today. But I'm far from confident. They've simply burned me too many times for that to be the case; if I sat here this morning and wrote that I was sure of a victory, that we'll be talking about the Round of 16 tomorrow, and that a letdown after Friday is impossible, I'd be lying. To both of us.
Today is must win. Not just for this tournament, but for the profile of the U.S. program and the psyches of the fans. Over the course of the American return to the World Cup, we've alternated between abject failure and first round success; by all rights, this go 'round should be the latter. It's the trend of the Americans going down in the third group match versus alternating knockout round appearances. While I don't think either means much of anything (both are just coincidence), I recognize that sometimes these things can work their way into the players' minds.
They should win. They need to win. We're all desperate for them to win. They got this. I think.
It's going to be a nervy day. Excuse me while I look for a distraction until kickoff.
