Expansion talk seems the be the pastime du jour around the internet soccer community, and I certainly don't want to be left out. I know I've touched briefly on the current race, and linked to a few things regarding the front runners and dropouts. Instead of slogging across covered ground, I thought I'd look more towards the overall MLS expansion plans, goals, and policies.

MLS is scheduled to announce two new franchises, both to begin play in the 2011 season. This follows rapid expansion over of the last four years, with Real Salt Lake and Chivas USA coming into the league in 2005, TFC in 2007, the revived San Jose Earthquakes in 2008, and Seattle Sounders FC this coming season. It is the stated goal of the league to expand to 18 teams by 2011, but it is not clear if the league intends to stop at 18 teams.

The recent economic downturn has created a dichotomy between those who wish to see the league grow (and do so rapidly) and the actual ability of potential ownership groups to create strong expansion bids. Even those who seem to have all the necessary parts in place, as in St. Louis (rich soccer history and a stadium project approved) and in Montreal (strong USL team with stadium easily expanded), have been hamstrung by the financial elephant in the room. If it hasn't done so already, MLS may find it necessary to revise their expansion goals post-2011.

The bidding process, a necessary evil of expansion, is a risk-reward endeavor. If cities seen as the strongest candidates are either unable or unwilling to meet the demands of the league, MLS is left with a very public failure (St. Louis and Montreal); if the league chooses to cow to the name of a foreign club who simply see the MLS as an entry point to the North American market (Miami), then they risk being marginalized within that market.

Other bids bring other problems: Portland, while appearing to be soccer hotbed from the outside, is having stadium issues of their own. Ditto for Vancouver, where the stop gap stadium proposal of renovating BC Place leaves some cold. Ottawa is an underdog candidate, a smaller Canadian market that is unlikely to jump ahead of Vancouver and Montreal.

The motives behind expansion seem to be simple, and for the good of the professional game in the region. A strong national (and Canadian) footprint should increase the amount of potential fans of the league, thereby increasing television ratings and revenues, and allowing the league to slowly remove the financial restraints it currently operates under. It's also possible, and somewhat likely, that the league is using expansion fees from these new franchises (which was raised to $40 million for this round) to repay those investments made by the league's initial backers (Hunt and Anschutz among them), who have taken heavy losses in the nascent years of MLS.

I get excited to see new teams in the league, and I'm always for new and passionate supporters groups raising the league's profile as a place where passion is high; but I believe MLS needs to tread lightly with further expansion. The money issues that continue to plague Cooper in St. Louis and have threatened to derail the Chester stadium project for Philadelphia are just two signs that no matter the enthusiasm, the market may not bear the resources necessary to make these teams successful.

I don't worry too much about the talent pool becoming diluted; I'm putting faith in both the American soccer infrastructure (such as it is), and a revision of the rules under which teams currently operate when competing for talent. If MLS expands beyond the ability of the talent pool to fill out teams (I'm not even sure how you could quantify that) and doesn't make changes to ensure the talent pool keeps up with demand, then they've made a grave error. I can't see the league trading expansion dollars for a major step back in quality of play; either the talent pool is deeper than we all know, or the league has contingencies in place that will help deepen it.

What will worry me, however, is any action on the part of MLS that will slow progress towards a larger cap or no cap at all. On field success is the only thing that will truly put the league on the international map, and MLS teams will always struggle to compete with their FMF and Central American peers if teams are not given the ability to improve quality and depth (I know, I sound like a broken record). Expansion should be a means to an end, not just a way to infuse the league with cash. Exposure through influential media markets like Philadelphia can certainly be a good thing, but only if MLS and the new franchise are on stable footing with each step.


Additional thoughts:

If you want to read an interesting argument for expanding quickly, check this out. From College to the Pros had a good discussion on the talent pool back in '07 that still applies.

I'm VERY anxious about the Philly name; it can either be a clever way to connect with the local culture, or a giant mistake that makes them a laughing stock in the city from the get-go. In this vein, I'm hoping to write a little something on how MLS teams market themselves locally (inspired by Brian at House of Soccer*) in the near future.

The more I think about it, the more I don't like the Barca Miami thing, unless the connections to Barcelona are low-level. No Barca in the name of the team, for example.

Unless the league plans to back off on handing out two spots this round, the St. Louis struggles have to make the Timber Army very happy (Check out the "expansion meter" on the MLS to Portland website: I don't know what the criteria is, but I like it).