We've all seen it by now; reports out of Germany have American (and Mexican) soccer's favorite whipping boy tearing it up in the run up to the second half of the Bundesliga season. Whether you put stock in friendlies or not, it's hard to see Landon not getting minutes while his form is so good.
I was thinking about Landon's German adventure today, and besides the glee I feel over his strong early showing, it occurred to me that MLS must already have a price in mind for when Bayern Munich inevitably come calling (I know it's not actually inevitable, but it is likely, so inevitable still works).
So, what exactly is Donovan's value?
There's really no precedent here; Altidore's $10 million transfer to Villareal doesn't work as a barometer because of Jozy's age and lack of a long term track record. There is certainly a premium placed on young players with potential like Jozy, a category in which Donovan doesn't fit. At 26 (soon to be 27), Landon's "developmental" years are behind him; in order to get full value, Bayern is almost obligated to play him.
I think all of us that are anxious for Donovan to succeed in Europe are hoping for a smooth transfer when his loan period is complete; if Donovan plays well, he can raise the reputation of American players almost single-handedly. MLS has to ride a fine line when negotiating with Bayern (or any other team), keeping their asking price to a reasonable level while at the same time avoiding rolling over simply because Donovan is A. American and B. a two time "failure" in Germany.
Bayern Munich is certain to have the upper hand at the negotiating table. Donovan has made it clear he's ready to leave MLS and take another shot at big-time European football, so to bring him back to the U.S. over a matter of a million dollars or so would be catastrophic to his psyche. While selling one of the league's marquee players surely wasn't on Major League Soccer's 2009 to-do list, the pressure to do so will be so immense that the league may have no choice.
As of now, there are no estimates on a potential transfer fee for Donovan. No one seems to know what value MLS might put on Donovan, and how much his performance will impact that price. I may be jumping the gun, as he's yet to play in any league or cup matches for Bayern, but the subject had to come up sometime.
If Altidore is worth $10 million (I know it doesn't really apply, but I'm going to use it anyway), and players like Craig Bellamy go for roughly $19 million (which we'll adjust down to $15 million due to the Man City premium), then why wouldn't Landon Donovan be worth at least $15 million himself?
I want to see Donovan go, I truly do. But I want the league to do right by itself by being smart and getting a solid return when they sell on their brightest star. $15 million, plus or minus a million, seems about right. Only time will tell.
As I'm on the record now, I guess I'll have to eat crow if he's either sold for less or stays at home because Bayern (or another club; it's a possibility) value him lower. Come back in March to see what happens!
Video of Landon's two goals from today's friendly against Mainz are already out there, floating in the American soccer Internet circles, but I thought I would post them anyway. What can I say, I like seeing them on my site.
Donovan's first goal:
Donovan's second goal:
*EDIT 1/24*
I've been pipped by Bill Archer at Big Soccer, although he doesn't make any predictions regarding LD's potential price.
