As we creep towards zero hour, towards the United States National Team's biggest test in a somewhat meaningful competition in years, I'm getting that "hopeful yet scared shitless" feeling comes with supporting a massive underdog.
The sliver of hope that the Americans can pull off the gargantuan upset is just large enough that I'm a nervous wreck; I'm not so convinced of a Spanish victory that I can just let myself relax and simply hope for a encouraging performance from my team. Blame it on Egypt, blame it on Bob, or blame it on the players who showed so well on Sunday that we as fans have managed to work ourselves up to the belief that they can beat the unbeatable.
I'm fairly certain that we're the only ones that can even conceive, no matter how remote a possibility we recognize it to be, of a US victory today. In fact, I know we are.
A quick scan of odds for the US-Spain match today (and imagine my shock when the site wasn't blocked at my office) shows the Americans as 12/1 (I think; I'm not enough of a gambler to be comfortable with my understanding, but that's not stopping me from forging ahead) to win. Meanwhile, the Spanish are 1.28 to win, meaning they just a hair over even money. Those aren't encouraging odds, even as we keep in mind that they're set in such a way as to drive betting on each side, making money for the bookies either way, and that bettors outside of the United States are likely to have little respect for the Americans (hence the enticement of long odds).
Nevermind the actual odds, the simple way to put it is to say that the Americans have a snowball's chance in hell of beating the top ranked team in the world. It's going to take a perfectly played game, a herculean type of effort, and the match of a lifetime from more than one individual to keep the Spaniards from scoring more than the Yanks. Weapons abound for La Roja, and it's difficult to even pick out one Spanish player that is more dangerous than any other, simply because they are that talented.
But the Americans are dead in the water if they come out scared. If they play like massive underdogs, if they run and chase and do the football equivalent of curling into the fetal position, it will be over before it starts. If they're to have any chance, they have to assert themselves immediately, letting the Spanish know that it's not going to be a walkover, but a hard fought battle. Pushing up and pressuring Spain's back line while doing their best to defend away from their own goal seems somewhat counter-intuitive against a side as offensively adept as Spain; but if the Americans sit back and attempt to absorb attack after attack, they're likely to concede and find themselves without even that small sliver of hope we believe they have.
Don't play like underdogs, play like equals. Easier said than done, I know, but it's the only chance they have.
We'll know, within the first fifteen minutes, if our boys have a shot. If the Spanish feel no pressure, completely dominate, or score, there's not likely to be much to look forward to for the remaining seventy-five minutes.
If Bob Bradley is a better manager than I have given him credit for, if the victory of Egypt represents a turning point in the evolution of the USMNT, and if the quality of play is at a higher level than in the first two games of the tournament, then the Americans really do have a shot. But if that last match was just a blip, was just a aberration aided by hookers and Egyptian fatigue, then we have no shot. Determining which is real and which is a mirage is the difficult part; either way, I hope the players truly believe it's the former and not the latter.
Here's to hoping that I'm eating a healthy helping of crow served by Mr. Bradley come, 4:30 Eastern Time today.
I'm still trying to decide if I should run a liveblog today; since I'm unable to really watch the game and I am supposed to be working, I won't be able to run it properly. If you are a regular, would like to help, and will be able to watch the game, let me know if you want me to run a liveblog; you guys can run it yourselves while I attempt to follow the match and chime in when possible.
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