By Jason Kuenle
Five of the ten rounds have been played in the finals of CONCACAF World Cup qualifying. The table does not look like most commentators or US and especially Mexican fans might have expected. With the US in second and Mexico in fourth, it would be easy to believe that CONCACAF has taken on a new direction. A closer look at the results may challenge that viewpoint.
Half of the hexagonal teams played three games at home in the first half, while the other three played only two. Costa Rica has likely played the easiest schedule so far with three home games and a road game against Trinidad and Tobago. That the Ticos managed 3 points from all of the games is a testament to the quality of their side, but the second half brings games in El Salvador, Honduras, and the US and a crucial visit from Mexico in September. None of these games come with guaranteed points.
On the other side, Mexico has had one of the toughest paths, with games in the US, in El Salvador, and in Honduras. Despite their early struggles, Mexico should be favored to win in four of their last five games. Honduras has three remaining home games, as well, including a game against the US. If the US can get a draw or win in either the Mexico or Honduras game, it should cement their place in the World Cup at the expense of the other side. Losses for the US in both of those games will make automatic qualification a battle.
The adage that it is tough to win on the road in CONCACAF has held true. In 15 games, home sides have posted 11 wins, 3 draws, and the Trinidad loss to Costa Rica. In these games, the home team has outscored their opponents 30 to 13. Nine of those 13 goals came against El Salvador and Trinidad. If these trends hold, by August 13th, the standings could be quite different. In round 6, the US visits the Azteca and Costa Rica heads to Honduras. Wins by the home teams in those two games would drastically tighten the standings with Costa Rica at 12, the US and Honduras at 10, and Mexico at 9.
The results in last night’s games restored some of the expected order to the CONCACAF standings. But with the hexagonal only half over and the points leaders with more difficult schedules than those teams just behind them, no team is safe.
Jason Kuenle has been a guest commentator for Match Fit USA since winning the MFUSA writing contest. He can be contacted by e-mail at secondhalfsub@gmail.com.
