This should have been a morning post. But things got in the way, and my brain refused to function properly, so you're getting it in the evening. No matter, it's still relevant.
The big, bad, beast to the south is still alive and stirring. After taking an early lead, losing that lead, and then charging ahead on the strength of a long range bomb, the Mexican National Football Team finished off an over-matched Trinidad & Tobago 2-1 last night at Estadio Azteca, vaulting themselves back into contention for South Africa 2010.
As I wrote yesterday when I briefly previewed the match, the chances of a T&T upset were slim to none. Despite their recent struggles, Mexico is still a much better side than everyone else in CONCACAF save for the US, and that predominance shone through. T&T, after conceding in the first two minutes of the game, were forced to chase the rest of the night. If it weren't for a defensive miscue by the Mexicans, it's unlikely the Soca Warriors would have sniffed goal at all.
So what does it mean? Nothing really, though it does relieve the pressure on El Tri if only for a bit; the Mexicans can breath as they head into the less-than-crucial Gold Cup, before they take on the Americans at home on August 12th. The media can relax (to a point), the players can relax (to a point), and the manager can deflect questions about the team's performance by pointing to the schedule; of Mexico's five remaining qualifiers, three are at home in the comfortable, noisy, oxygen-deprived atmosphere of Azteca. Simply holding serve at home and getting a few points on the road will give them an excellent chance at cracking the top three in the hexagonal and secure their place in the field for next year's World Cup.
Still, there is plenty of work to do, and no matter their history of home dominance, things may get a bit tricky for Aguirre & Co. I believe there's a reasonable chance that they'll drop points in Mexico City, be it to a motivated (let's hope) American squad or to the dangerous Hondurans. Points away from Mexico will be at a premium, with an away match at Costa Rica looming on September 5th; if Mexico doesn't play well enough at home to give themselves a cushion, the final Hexagonal fixture at Trinidad & Tobago on October 14th could decide their fate.
As an American and a US National Team supporter, I would love to see Mexico struggle their way through the remainder of qualification. Even better if they are forced to show off against the fifth place CONMEBOL nation in a winner-goes-to-the-Cup series; not only because it would be nice to watch the Mexicans squirm, but also because it will be a reality check for a footballing nation that believes its status to be greater than it actually is.
But, those of you familiar with my opinions also see Mexican struggles as a double-edged sword; without a strong rival to the south, I'm concerned that US Soccer will rest on its laurels, comfortable in Giant of CONCACAF label. Mexico pushing the US is not only good for American soccer, it's good for the popularity of the game in this country and for the overall reputation of CONCACAF on the world stage.
I expect Mexico to qualify. It may be tougher than they would have liked, and it may take luck and fortune as much as quality and skill; but El Tri remains the cream of the Caribbean & North American crop (along with the US of course), and there's no really reason for their fans to panic.
They will, of course, and I'm jealous, but that's another post altogether.
Bottom line, Mexico took the first step on a reversal of fortunes that will see them headed to South Africa in one year's time last night, and while it wasn't the performance we expect from them, they have not yet fallen from their perch as giants of the region.
